PM PREDICTS PLP ELECTION WIN, LAMENTS AIRPORT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NASSAU 000061

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CAR WBENT AND INR/B

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV EAIR BF
SUBJECT: PM PREDICTS PLP ELECTION WIN, LAMENTS AIRPORT
PROBLEMS AND DISCUSSES HIS STROKE

REF: A. 05 NASSAU 1952

B. NASSAU 58

Classified By: CDA D.BRENT HARDT FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Prime Minster Perry Christie in a January 5
meeting with the Ambassador confidently predicted that his
Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) would win the elections he
must call no later than May 2007 unless the Government makes
some big mistakes between now and then. Christie also
commented on the continuing problems at Nassau International
Airport, lamenting that the government had not been informed
of radar problems that shut air traffic down for several days
during Christmas week, and that steps to address problems had
been inadequate. Christie attributed the rebound from his
May 2005 stroke to his having followed doctor,s orders to
rest and resume duties slowly. He now again finds himself
overworked, however, and admitted he needed to restructure
his office to support him more effectively. He hinted that a
cabinet shuffle was in the works, and would be announced in
the near future. End Summary.

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Christie Predicts PLP Victory
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2. (C) The Ambassador called on Prime Minister Perry
Christie January 5 to deliver the President,s holiday
greetings and review issues on the bilateral agenda at the
start of the New Year. Christie, in a relaxed and expansive
mood, predicted that his Progressive Liberal Party (PLP)
would win the elections he must call no later than May 2007,
which are likely later this year or in early 2007. He said
that the PLP,s populist roots as the party that led The
Bahamas to majority rule give it a built-in advantage over
the opposition Free National Movement (FNM),which had
originally been the party of the predominantly white merchant
class. He said the party,s base was a solid 51 percent of
the electorate, barring major discontent with its actions.
"Unless we mess up in a big way," Christie said, "we will win
the elections." He suggested that the FNM had taken power in
the 1990,s only after corruption scandals in PLP founder Sir
Lynden Pindling's government had become so widespread that
people became turned off.

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Race and Politics
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3. (C) Following the FNM,s election of a white Deputy
Leader earlier this year (Ref A) and PLP convention remarks
that sought to link this choice to the FNM,s merchant class
origins, the PLP had received criticism for injecting race
into Bahamian politics. Christie, who broached the issue
with the Ambassador, denied that race was a major issue in
The Bahamas or that it would be an issue in the campaign.
Outside of older Bahamians who may retain memories of past
injustice, most Bahamians today, he argued, do not spend much
time thinking about issues of race. Despite the differing
origins of the parties, Christie said that today there were
no major ideological or policy differences between the two
major parties. The primary issue for the electorate, he
believed, was which party could manage the country more
effectively. "Obviously," he said, "I think that is us."

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Airport Delays and Problems of Governing
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4. (C) Christie lamented to the Ambassador a recent failure
of the radar at Nassau International Airport during Christmas
week -- one of the busiest travel times of the year -- a
failure that lasted nearly five days because of poor
management at the airport authority and generated
considerable anger from frustrated passengers. He claimed
that the government had not initially been informed of the
problem, and that the quasi-governmental airport authority
had bungled the repair effort. He noted that an urgently
needed part had been driven from Oklahoma rather than being
flown directly, and that the technicians needed to install
the part had not been notified in time to arrive with the
part, and were ultimately left languishing at a private
airport when they arrived. Christie said this case was
typical of the frustrations he encountered in trying to
govern The Bahamas.


5. (C) Christie also asked the Ambassador about reports of
delays at the airport arising from an alleged recommendation
by the head of the U.S. Customs and Border Protection's
Pre-Clearance Unit not to open a second security checkpoint.
The Ambassador told him that on the contrary, CBP had been
fully staffed at 5:00 AM and we had urged the Airport
Authorities to open additional checkpoints at that time as
well, but they were not operational until mid-morning until
lines had built up. Telephone calls to the airport and
customs confirmed our assessment of the cause of the delays.
Christie and the Ambassador also reviewed proposed changes to
the Transportation Security Administration's (TSA) local
security procedures, with the Ambassador pointing out that we
would agree to a reconfiguration that would expedite
travelers on the condition that a number of tighter security
arrangements were put in place. The Ambassador noted that
improving airport management would be vital to our ability to
move forward. Christie said the government recognized that
the airport needed better management, and said the
long-awaited award of a management contract to a Canadian
company, YVR, was nearly finalized. He was expecting a final
contract from the company that day, and he hoped to announce
the deal in the days ahead.

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Cabinet Shuffle Likely in Election Run-Up
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6. (C) Christie told the Ambassador he would be making some
Cabinet changes in the months ahead to move out some poorly
performing ministers and bring in some better performers. He
also indicated that he would be looking to bring in some
extra help to his office in the form of a chief of staff.
With the political season heating up, Christie said he was
being approached by so many people for political favors on
top of all the issues that ended up on his plate that he was
looking to hire a chief of staff to keep track of commitments
and ensure follow-up. He complained that too many issues
ended up on his desk because ministers were reluctant to take
decisions in their area of purview. This applied to the
issue of the Cuban detainees (Ref B),which he normally
expects the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to deal with without
his becoming involved.

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Rebounded from Stroke, but Taking on Too Much
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7. (C) In the context of Israeli Prime Minister Sharon,s
second stroke, Christie observed that his own stroke in May
2005 had been very similar to that suffered by Sharon.
Unlike Sharon, however, he did not initially resume activity.
On doctor's orders, he withdrew from major activity for
three months, and only slowly returned to active public life
in the subsequent three months. He noted that during that
period, even though he felt fine most of the time, he would
be suddenly overcome by exhaustion. Unfortunately, he had
just passed through a busy political season with his party's
convention in November and the year-end Junkanoo festivals,
and the year ahead was likely to be even busier. He was
diligently attempting to pace himself, but it was not proving
easy to do so.

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Comment
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8. (C) Christie has clearly reemerged as a dominant
political force following his stroke, and is gearing up for
what he knows will be a close, hard-fought election battle
with his friend and former law partner, former FNM Prime
Minister Hubert Ingraham. Christie's political weakness has
been a widespread popular perception of indecisiveness.
Christie knows this and no doubt hopes that the awarding of
an airport management contract and a reshuffle of the cabinet
-- which has been rumored for two years -- will signal his
willingness to bite the bullet and make tough decisions. He
continues to welcome a close partnership with the United
States and greatly appreciates the extensive support we
provide the Bahamas through OPBAT and training of law
enforcement personnel. The opposition FNM sees itself as the
more friendly party toward the U.S., however, and could
attempt to use the PLP's cultivation of ties with China and
Cuba to make "management of relations with the U.S." a wedge
issue in the coming campaign. End comment.

HARDT