MICHUKI UNBOWED, BUT OPPOSITION GROWS TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 000988

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2026
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC KE
SUBJECT: MICHUKI UNBOWED, BUT OPPOSITION GROWS TO
ANTI-MEDIA RAIDS IN KENYA


Classified By: Political Counselor Michael J. Fitzpatrick. Reasons 1.4
(b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Security Minister Michuki remains unbowed in
his conviction that the police actions against independent
media were fully legal and justified in the name of national
security. Civil society, the media and opposition
parliamentarians plan a day of peaceful protest against what
many see as another salvo in a campaign of political
intimidation. A number of Michuki's cabinet counterparts have
denounced his unilateral action, but most simply try to stay
under the radar. Chief among those keeping a very low
profile is President Kibaki. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) WHO'S IN CHARGE HERE? In the Kenya of March 2006,
corruption is so "last month." Indeed, January and February
were dominated by almost daily revelations about which
ministers had been stealing how much from which spigot of the
public trough. But now, following the February 20 moves
against the tabloid Weekly Citizen, the February 28 arrests
of three Standard journalists and the March 2 police raids on
the Standard Media Group, Kenyan focus has shifted suddenly
and dramatically. The question now is just how intent is
this government to restrict "democratic space," in particular
that of the electronic media? A related question, of course,
is just who is running this "government"?


3. (U) MICHUKI CLAIMS NATIONAL SECURITY PROMPTED RAIDS:
National Security Minister John Michuki released a statement
March 3 to provide the official rationale for the raids. In
full, Michuki stated, "there has been criticism leveled
against the Government due to the Police action that was
undertaken at the offices of the Standard Group. Yesterday
the Police issued a statement that was largely ignored and
rubbished by the media. The Government is in possession of
materials retrieved from the computers taken from the
Standard. These materials contain serious matters detrimental
to the security of this country. We are studying the
materials and have asked the Commissioner of Police to
expedite investigations so that the necessary cause (sic) of
action can be taken."


4. (C) BUT KENYAN PUBLIC, PARTIES AND MEDIA "JUST SAY NO":
But Michuki's words have only enflamed, not doused, public
opposition. The media remain fearful of more raids, with the
Standard alleging a follow-on raid was called off, and the
flagship Nation newspaper wondering if it is next. The Law
Society of Kenya has termed the raids illegal, as has the
Kenya chapter of the international Commission of Jurists.
Maina Kiai, chairman of the government-funded (if
independent) Kenya National Commission on Human Rights (and
himself a Kikuyu),has been highly visible and vocal in his
denunciations. He has privately told poloff he views the
raids as just the latest action in a government-sponsored
"mud smearing" campaign of political intimidation. Philip
Murgor, former Director of Public Prosecutions, told PolCouns
the raids were "lacking in probable cause and totally
illegal." Transparency International's Kenya chapter
denounced the government's resorting to "jungle law," and
warned of "a slippery slope to anarchy." Kenya's major
religious denominations, from the Supreme Council of Kenyan
Muslims (SUPKEM) to Catholic and Anglican Church notables,
used this weekend's services to denounce the steps as illegal
threats to Kenyan democracy. Civil society organizations,
media watchdog groups and the political constellation of
opposition parties known as the Orange Democratic Movement
have called for a peaceful national day of protest, Tuesday,
March 7. Raila Odinga -- ODM figure, Luo tribal leader and
the personal bete noire of Minister Michuki -- has renewed
with intensity his post-referendum assertions that President
Kibaki has "lost his legitimacy" and should thus call for
early elections. Even disgraced former Security Minister
Chris Murungaru has climbed on the bandwagon to denounce his
successor's actions.


5. (SBU) ARE THERE FOREIGN GUERRILLAS IN THE MIDST?: Odinga
also fed the flames of conspiracy with suggestions that
"foreign mercenaries" may have taken part in the police
raids. Though he may have simply been speculating in the
wake of eyewitness reports that hooded white or Asian men
with foreign accents -- and hurling racial epithets at the
Kenyans -- seemed to be occupying some leadership positions
among the police raiders, Odinga also has suggested the
outsiders may have been brought in to kill opposition
leaders, starting with himself. The Standard, however,
detailed March 6 the daily activities of four unnamed
foreigners said to have participated in the raids.
Speculating they may be from Russia, Ukraine or Bosnia, the
Standard claimed the Kenyan Government was providing
vehicles, security and paying the hotel bills for the men.
Several are reported to have been seen with some of the
seized computers, near the Government offices of official
spokesmen Alfred Mutua. Seemingly unintimidated by the raids,
The Standard also made clear it knows a fair amount about the
strangers, down to where they drink their whiskies and get
their haircuts.


6. (U) MORE GOVERNMENT DISTANCING FROM THE RAIDS: Police
Commissioner Ali returned to the country over the weekend,
and repeated his previous assertions that the raids were
carried on without his knowledge. Defense Minister Karume
has similarly stated he had no prior involvement. Health
Minister Charity Ngilu appeared in Raila Odinga's Langata
constituency over the weekend and publicly denounced the
police raids. Presidential Advisor for Strategy Stanley
Murage carefully denied published reports that he attended a
planning meeting the night before the raids were carried out.
For his part, President Kibaki has steadfastly remained
mute, even avoiding his usual informal address to the
congregation outside Church after Sunday Mass. The President
did, however, suggest there is no need for popular (much less
political) panic when he confirmed March 3 that he would call
Parliament back into session March 21. (He prorogued
Parliament after the November defeat of his proposed new
constitution.)


7. (U) BUT NOT EVERYONE: Justice and Constitutional Affairs
Minister Martha Karua is thus far the main, if not only,
cabinet minister to come to the aid of Internal Security
Minister Michuki. While she clearly had no advance knowledge
of the raids, Karua has publicly stated "there was nothing
illegal" in the raids. (See septel for Ambassador's meeting
with Karua.)


8. (C) COMMENT: The headstrong actions of Minister Michuki
have put President Kibaki and his team of Kikuyu insiders in
a tight spot. Few in government knew in advance of the raids
-- and fewer still could have predicted the outrage it has
provoked. Most Ministers appear to be keeping their heads
down, letting Michuki take the heat for his own actions.
That the Justice Minister, of all ministers, has turned
tribal cheerleader instead of condemning the Security
Minister's conclusion that he can bypass all legal channels
to seize anyone's computers and shut down any media is indeed
a sad commentary. And still, the President says nothing.
The concern is that, backed into a corner, renowned for a
willingness to resort to violence, and given a long leash by
the President, what will Michuki do next?
BELLAMY