HORN OF AFRICA, STATE - USAID HUMANITARIAN UPDATE

UNCLAS NAIROBI 000968

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AIDAC STATE FOR AF/E, AF/EPS, AF/PD, EB, PRM/AF, IO
USAID FOR A/AID, AA/DCHA, DCHA/FFP, DCHA/OTI, AA/EGAT, OFDA
USAID/DCHA FOR WGARVELINK, LROGERS, MHESS
DCHA/OFDA FOR GGOTTLIEB, MMARX, IMACNAIRN, KCHANNELL
DCHA/FFP FOR JDWORKEN, JDRUMMOND, TANDERSON, DNELSON,
SBRADLEY
USAID/EGAT FOR JTURK, JSCHAFER
AFR/EA FOR JBORNS, SMCCLURE
ADDIS ABABA FOR TIM STUFFT
DJIBOUTI FOR JSCHULMAN
ROME FOR FODAG
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH
BRUSSELS FOR PLERNER
NSC FOR JMELINE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: DY EAID ECO ET PHUM PREF EGAD CENTCOM PRES
SUBJECT: HORN OF AFRICA, STATE - USAID HUMANITARIAN UPDATE
1

REF: STATE 27057

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1. Summary:
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This is the first cable in response to reftel request for
bi-weekly reports on the humanitarian situation in the Horn
of Africa. It is formatted according to reftel guidelines.
USAID Missions in Ethiopia and Djibouti contributed to this
report.

A regional humanitarian crisis in Kenya, Djibouti, Ethiopia
and Somalia, exacerbated by the failure of the short rains,
has developed into a full-blown emergency. Pastoralist
livelihoods across the region are severely threatened as
livestock, the basis of their food security system, are
dying in unprecedented numbers due to lack of water, forage
and pasture. Significant numbers of marginal agricultural
and agro-pastoralist communities living in the arid and
semi-arid areas of all four countries are also affected.
The situation is exacerbated by limited purchasing power,
political marginalization, conflict over natural resources
(including water) and limited livelihood options. Normal
coping mechanisms have been exhausted and pre-famine
indicators have been reported, including rising
malnutrition rates, irregular high livestock mortality,
confused migration, rural exodus to urban centers and
concentration at permanent water points.

Since drought in this area is recurrent, historically
requiring repeated emergency interventions, donors and
governments are increasingly seeking solutions that
decrease the vulnerability and increase resiliency of
people and systems in this region. A regional approach to
address this crisis is desirable to strengthen and augment
in-country efforts, address trans-boundary issues and
mitigate conflict issues across borders. USAID has formed a
regional Pastoralist Working Group, which serves as an
internal think tank to inform USAIDs approach to long-term
response to the drought in the region.

Country summaries:

a. Kenya Summary: The northern and eastern pastoral
districts are facing an emergency situation -- overall,
about 3.5 million people require emergency humanitarian
assistance in the next 12 months. Malnutrition rates are
rising with a GAM of 18-30% in the worst affected
districts. Cattle and sheep mortality is estimated at 33%
and expected to rise as the dry season advances. Livestock
prices have dipped by 30-60%. Most pastoralist coping
strategies are exhausted and households are using distress
strategies. Agropastoral areas in the south and coastal
areas are also highly food insecure due to crop failure. In
Lake Basin areas HIV/AIDS is exacerbating food insecurity
and large numbers of orphans and vulnerable children exist.
AmEmbassy Nairobi has formed an Interagency Task Force for
Kenya and Somalia which met for the first time on February

27. Additional information to be provided septel.

b. Ethiopia Summary: The humanitarian situation in the
Somali region and in the Borena zone of the Oromia region
continues to deteriorate, as the region progresses further
into the dry season (Jan-Mar). The response from the UN,
donors, and NGOs has been accelerating to meet the needs
of the region, but gaps remain. USAID Ethiopia is focusing
on filling the most critical gaps through water and health

programs.

c. Somalia Summary: An estimated 1.7 million people in the
North, central and Southern Regions of Somalia are facing
conditions of Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis or
Humanitarian Emergency at least until June 2006, and
combined with 380,000 IDPS the total number of people in
need of assistance throughout the country is 2.1 million
people. The crisis is especially severe in the Southern
regions of Somalia, where an estimated 1.4 million people
are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance. Somalia is
experiencing crop failure; considerable livestock deaths,
rapidly increasing cereal prices, falling livestock prices,
abnormal population movements and extreme shortages of and
limited access to water and food.

d. Djibouti Summary: Recent showers have brought some
improvement to the humanitarian situation in the eastern
part of the country. Livestock mortality has been reported
throughout pastoral communities.

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2. Humanitarian Access/Security Incidents:
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a. Regional: Governments, humanitarian organizations and
donors have mobilized emergency humanitarian assistance in
all four countries. Support includes food aid, emergency
water trucking, livestock feed provision de-stocking,
veterinary and human medicines provision. Somalia continues
to be a challenge for both relief and development
operations.

Food insecurity is intensified by conflict, whose
underlying cause is often competition over scarce
resources. Based on field assessment reports and partners
working in the drought-affected pastoralist areas, there
are signs that the current drought has exacerbated conflict
in the area.

Tensions between pastoralists are heightened due to the
regional nature of the crisis as it affects transboundary
migration (one of their traditional copying strategies)
among the countries of Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya. In
their search for water and pasture to keep animals alive,
pastoralists are encroaching onto agricultural lands in
search of grazing. This is affecting farmers land
preparation activities for the March/April planting season.
Cases of cross-border raids have been reported along the
Ethiopia/Kenya, Sudan/Kenya and Somalia/Ethiopia borders.
The following security incidents have occurred, by country:

b. Kenya: Following clashes, pastoralists from Wajir
District who had migrated to Isiolo lost their eight people
and 600 animals. Over eight incidents of highway banditry
have been reported over the last month. The
Isiolo/Marsabit/Moyale road and Wajir/Mandera road have
witnessed increased banditry attacks. On the other hand,
reports indicate that inter-clan conflicts in general have
reduced due to the severity of the drought that left the
people weak and resources completely depleted.

c. Ethiopia: The GOEs Disaster Preparedness and Prevention
Agency (DPPA) continues daily dispatches of food for some
1.5 million people in Somali Region, and some 155,000 in
Borena zone of Oromiya Region. The transport capacity for
deliveries of relief food is limited. In January, the


total food dispatched was only 30% of the target amount for
Somali region. In order to increase the dispatch rate,
DPPA has engaged their emergency transport fleet and the
Road Transport Authority is coordinating the commercial
transport fleet for priority loads to the drought-affected
areas. For food dispatches to Somali Region, DPPA has now
taken additional measures in order to ensure delivery of
relief food to the intended beneficiaries. These measures
include regular radio broadcasts informing beneficiaries of
food allocations and their entitlements, deployment of DPPA
monitoring teams to the worst drought-affected areas,
deployment of military convoys to follow trucks carrying
relief food to particular "hotspot" areas, and the
establishment of committees at woreda level to control the
receipt of food. WFP is also increasing its monitoring
capacity in the areas, through hiring of new food aid
monitors and field assistants.

The measles response led by UNICEF with the Ministry of
Health (MOH) has many gaps, making coverage extremely
inadequate. The already late campaign will be affected by
insecurity in some parts of the Somali Region. The
campaign is also hindered in pastoralist areas by the lack
of capacity of the MOH, and by the difficulties in reaching
remote and mobile people. NGO involvement in the past has
helped to secure much better coverage rates for vaccination
campaigns.

The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has
reported two of their vehicles were hijacked by the
Sheikash clan while attempting to deliver food to 4000
displaced families in East Imi. The hijacking was not done
at gunpoint, and the ICRC does not consider this a
noteworthy security incident. The remainder of the ICRC
trucks continued without incident. GOAL has cancelled a
nutritional assessment in Deghabur Zone of Somali Region
after frequent stops by armed gunmen, and fear of Islamic
fundamentalists. Save the Children UK confirmed that they
have withdrawn from food distribution to Fik Zone in Somali
Region after the burning of two food aid trucks by armed
gunmen a few weeks ago (the trucks were owned by highland
Ethiopians.)

d. Somalia: Fighting erupted in Mogadishu starting Feb 18
and lasting several days between armed militia backed by
business groups and those backed by the Islamic courts.
Over 33 persons were killed, 150 wounded, and several
thousand displaced. Fighting was reportedly intense
including the use of rocket-propelled grenades, heavy
machineguns, small caliber guns and mortar shells. The
fighting did not disrupt deliveries to the Merka and El
Maan ports which are utilized for food aid deliveries.
Three persons were killed on Feb 27 outside the Parliament
building in the autonomous Puntland area of Somalia. The
attack pitted militia forces loyal to one government
minister against security forces guarding the Parliament
building. Another vessel (a traditional dhow) was reported
hijacked on Feb 27 with 25 crew members aboard.


e. Djibouti: WFP EMOP programs currently carry a caseload
of around 47,500 beneficiaries. Due to the late arrival of
food shipments, the operation has been extended for 3
months and will end in March 2006. WFP has so far
distributed about 2,600 MT of mixed commodities over a
three-phase distribution. However, there is a shortfall of
around 1,447 MT, starting from January, and there are no

confirmed pledges to cover this gap. September and October
food distribution made possible through with loans from
other programs. There were no distributions in November,
and distributions for December and January were combined.
It is possible that distributions will be planned for March
depending on confirmed pledges. As the situation is
deteriorated by the impact of the current drought
prevailing in the region, WFP is planning to extend the
current EMOP up to the end of the year according to
findings from a government led multi-agency mission
scheduled at the end of January.

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3. Political/Diplomatic Issues:
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a. Kenya: The food crisis in marginal agricultural and Arid
and Semi Arid Lands (ASAL) of Kenya is clearly much deeper
than Emergency. It is rather a fundamentally chronic
poverty problem, necessitating strategies and policy
reorientation to address the root causes of food
insecurity. Both the Government of Kenya (GOK) and donors
are taking this crisis as an opportunity to improve
understanding of the factors underlying repeated food
crisis in the country and identifying new approaches to
breaking the cycle of relief dependency.

b. Ethiopia: The joint REDSO/USAID Ethiopia conflict
assessment has been postponed to early April.

c. Somalia: On Feb 27, Somalias interim President opened
the first ever Parliament meeting held inside Somalia in
the Southern Somalia town of Baidoa. This meeting brings
together feuding factions of the Transitional Federal
Government (TFG) who are split between the town of Jowhar
and Mogadishu.

d. Djibouti: Reliable sources report the congregation of
people in isolated areas around military posts in search of
food and water. The Government of Djibouti has launched an
appeal for humanitarian assistance.


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4.Action/Response to humanitarian; development conflict
mitigation, political/diplomatic etc. programs):
:
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a. Kenya: USAID/Kenya in partnership with its implementing
partners has embarked on various interventions to prevent
the situation from escalating into a complex humanitarian
crisis. Among others, conflict interventions focus on
increasing dialogue between communities to help each other
in times of disaster. This effort has led to agreements
being brokered on how to share the remaining pastures and
water. In one district (Mandera),private borehole owners
have also been encouraged to share water with the affected
communities. Similarly, local partners have set up a rapid
response team that will give direction and advice on areas
of focus and interventions. This set up will enable more
frequent dialogue between communities as a means to diffuse
tension and devise more appropriate resource sharing
mechanisms.

USAID/Kenya will continue to provide various short-term and
long-term assistance that will enable better understanding
of the linkages between drought and conflict in Kenya which

could lead to enhanced preventive strategies.

b. Ethiopia: UNICEF has agreed to use NGOs to assist in
their measles campaign, which seems to have worked well in
Zones 1 and 5 in Afar (and worked well in the 2002-03
emergency vaccination campaign in Afar and Somali).
However, there are worries about high numbers of deaths
already from measles (200 reported from Gewane in Afar, an
area not yet covered by the emergency vaccination),as well
as the highly vulnerable state of malnourished children in
the most drought affected areas. USAID is continuing to
monitor the implementation of the vaccination campaign and
is recommending inclusion of NGOs in the pastoralist areas
to help ensure effective coverage.

c. Somalia: USAID/FFP has funded expanded food aid
distributions in the most affected areas by both the World
Food Program (WFP) and CARE International. In total the
two agencies have received over $59 million ($33,173,000 to
o
WFP and $26,211,800 to CARE) in FY 06 to cover emergency
food needs through July 2006. In addition, CARE is
utilizing 11,927 MTs of carry-over commodities from FY 05
valued at approximately $7.8 towards the crisis. Should
rains fail as currently forecast, needs will only expand as
more household become destitute and coping strategies reach
their breaking point.

USAID/REDSO is expanding its Peace in East and Central
Africa (PEACE) Program, complementing its current cross-
border peacebuilding program in Mandera/Gedo Regions on the
Somalia/Kenya border with additional activities into Wajir,
Kenya and Lower Juba, Somalia. Support will include local
organizations in Afmadow and Bardeera districts in
Somalia. The initiative will promote joint economic and
livelihoods development by peaceful means; facilitate
practical problem-solving partnerships between local
government and cross border community organizations to
share basic services, and strengthen community structures
and mechanisms for the management of cross border conflict
and peace building.

The lack of a functioning central government and continued
insecurity limits the type of programming that can be
undertaken as well as the ability of organizations to
access areas for programming.

Current funding for FEWS/Somalia, which is based in
Nairobi, is insufficient. Due to declining budgets for
USAID/Somalia programs which in the past has supplemented
the FEWS/Somalia budget, travel is limited to one trip per
month and funding for 24 field monitors in Somalia, who
measure market prices and rainfall data, will run out at
the end of March. FEWS/Somalia has prepared a supplemental
funding request valued at approximately $250,000 to enable
additional travel, reporting and analysis, and funding for
the Somalia field monitors but funding has not been
identified yet. [Note: It is ironic that the very entity
charged with being a famine early warning system is facing
reductions at a time when Somalia is exhibiting early
warning signs of famine, USG travel into Somalia is
restricted, and the USG is dramatically increasing
emergency funding levels. End Note]

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5. Donor Response Update:
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a. Regional: The USAID Pastoralist Working Group is
preparing a concept paper to apply for Famine Funds. The
proposed regional activity would complement and strengthen
bilateral efforts and tackle some of the key transboundary
issues to improve resiliency of the predominantly
pastoralist populations in the region.

b. Kenya: Based on the January interagency food security
assessment, the GOK appealed for international assistance
for approximately 395,000 mt emergency foods valued at
Dols.221.5 million to meet immediate relief needs of 3.5
million drought-affected people throughout Kenya. In
addition, Dols.21.7 million is required in non-food
assistance.

Existing food aid pipeline (including 40,000 mt of the
GOKs recent pledge of 60,000 mt and USG additional
contribution of 10,000 mt) will not go beyond end April

2006. According to the World Food Program, 25 to 30,000 mt
of monthly ration is required to address immediate food
needs of 3.5 million people through March 2007. Shortly
after the GOKs appeal for international assistance on
February 8, 2006, a joint GOK/WFP press statement was
issued, reiterating the need for donors immediate response
to the appeal to respond to the urgent relief needs of
approximately 3.5 million people.

In FY 2006, the USG provided 12,000 mt of wheat, which was
swapped for 14,400 mt of locally provided maize, and an
additional 10,000 mt in assorted commodities. USG is also
considering additional contributions to avert a situation
in which huge pipeline break occurs in the midst of
immediate and significant needs. In addition, the USG,
through OFDA, is planning to contribute Dols.1.5 towards
the non-food sector through UNICEF and various NGOs.

.

More recent non-USG contributions include Euro 5 million
from EU/ECHO, GBP one million from the UK, Euro one million
from France, Euro one million from Ireland, Dols.500,000
from Italy and Dols.200,000 from Turkey. Additional
contributions are also expected from other donors.

WFP Executive Director, James Morris, is in Kenya the week
of February 27, 2006. On March 5, 2006 Ambassador Bellamy
will host a lunch for other Chiefs of Mission and GOK
officials so that James Morris can provide an update on the
East Africa drought and make a personal request for
a timely response to the current appeal from the
international community.

c. Ethiopia: The UN Office for the Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) has been encouraging DPPA to
take the lead on theQesponse coordination. In parallel,
UNOCHA has been hosting donor and partner meetings bi-
weekly to make sure there is no gap in information sharing.
USAID Ethiopia has also been meeting with partners to keep
abreast of the situation and to adjust response plans as
necessary.

UNOCHA is creating a Humanitarian Trust Fund for Ethiopia,
that will be used to respond to the drought emergency this
year, and as an early slush fund for future emergencies.
The current request by OCHA is USD 12.9 million, with
almost half focused on health and nutrition as UNICEF

implements a massive measles campaign. The UKs
Department for International Development (DFID) has
committed GBP 4 million to the fund with the EU appearing
to be covering the rest (although no firm commitment has
been made). Furthermore, Sweden has committed USD 3
million and Norway USD 680,000 to UNICEF, with Belgium
committing USD 300,000 to FAO for livestock health and
veterinary drugs.

The Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) had
been on the sidelines as they reevaluated direct budget
support to the GOE and formulated policy through their
recent elections at home. CIDA just last week reentered
the fray by committing USD 17 million to Ethiopia this year
for drought response and country-wide health. CIDA has not
yet announced how the money will be divided between these
two responses.

ICRC has focused on water tankering to Afder zone,
utilizing 9 water tankers supporting 15 locations and
additional points along the road. ICRC has been providing
food for internally displaced populations in East Imi, and
has made a limited response in improving access to human
health and animal health care in Afder and Gode zones.
WHO recently reported that the Austrian Development Agency
donated 500,000 Euro to support the polio eradication
program in Somali Region. The campaign, which plans to
cover an estimated 900,000 children under five, was
conducted in the 53 woredas including bordering areas, from
20 23 February. The region is considered to be at high
risk of importing the polio virus as it borders East
Hararghe in Oromiya Region, where the three most recently
confirmed wild polio virus cases were identified and due to
the outbreak of the disease in neighboring Somalia.
d. Somalia: Recent commitments to WFPs Emergency Operation
include the EU ($6 million); DFID ($4.5 million); Ireland
($1.2 million),and Austria ($200,000).

e. Djibouti: WFP EMOP programs currently carry a caseload
of around 47,500 beneficiaries. Due to the late arrival of
food shipments, the operation has been extended for 3
months and will end in March 2006. WFP has so far
distributed about 2,600 MT of mixed commodities over a
three-phase distribution. However, there is a shortfall of
around 1,447 MT, starting from January, and there are no
confirmed pledges to cover this gap.
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6. FEWS/FSAU Update:
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a. Livestock:

Kenya: Two years of successive drought has had an enormous
detrimental impact on the livelihoods and household food
security of the region, and has precipitated a growing
chronic food security crisis. The failure of short-rains
in Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia resulted in severely
depleted pasture, browse and water. Livestock mortality is
high in Kenya, for example, it ranges between 5 percent
among camels to 33 percent among cattle and sheep. Many
pastoralists depend on moving their livestock long
distances and across national borders to find forage and
water. Cattle and sheep are too weak to trek long distances
and many have died. The trekking distances for livestock
has extended beyond 20 miles, with watering intervals
ranging between two days goats and up to five days for
camels. As conditions worsen in the entire pastoral
livelihood zone, migration options are increasingly limited
and conflict over resources is likely to heighten in scale
and severity.

Ethiopia: There are reports of disease outbreaks,
particularly in the Afder and Liben zones of the Somali
region. UNOCHA reports that over 80,000 livestock have
died in these two zones alone. Vaccination and treatment
campaigns have reached over 700,000 animals to combat the
spread of diseases. But, as the rains start, it is
anticipated that many emaciated animals will die when they
get wet and cold so death tolls will certainly increase
significantly.

USAID Ethiopia, through the Pastoralist Livelihood
Initiative, has designated USD 2 million for emergency
destocking. Over the next month, PLI partners are planning
on destocking over 130,000 animals, mainly goats, sheep,
and camels. Partners are also supplying emergency feed,
water, vaccinations, and disease treatments.

Somalia: Livestock body conditions, production and
reproduction throughout most of the South extremely poor
and severely stressed due to limited water and pasture.
Cattle, the main livestock species in Gdeo, Juba Valley and
parts of Bay and Bakool regions are the hardest hit by the
drought and their survival over the current dry season
(January-April) is precarious at best. It is estimated
that 20-30% of the cattle have already died in Gedo and
parts of Juba Valley due to the lack of water, pasture and
drought related diseases. Preliminary estimates are that
upwards to 80% of the cattle in Gedo could perish by April,
before the next rains are expected. Competition over
rangeland resources and market opportunities is increasing
resource based conflicts between farmers and herders. The
market value of livestock, especially cattle, has plummeted
and will continue to fall.

Djibouti: There were no rains recorded in December. The
volume of the Heys/Dada rains to date range from below
normal to far below normal. Grazing areas in all pastoral
zones currently face a serious water deficit. All water
catchments are practically dry. This situation has led to
irregular movement of livestock, and the majority of the
remaining weakened herds are currently concentrated around
permanent water points. An extensive water tankering
scheme needs to be implemented soon. Reports indicate high
incidence rates of water borne diseases, contributing to
high livestock mortality throughout the pastoral zones.
b. Market Prices/terms of trade:

Kenya: Livestock prices have declined by margins ranging
between 30-60 percent in Kenya. The most significant
prices decline is noted among cattle. Low livestock
prices, attributed to a glut in supply, have compounded the
already low purchasing capacity. In addition, a
significant proportion of the livestock is unsellable due
to poor body condition.

Cereal prices in pastoral areas are over 50 percent higher
than in markets outside the pastoral areas, further
underlining the pressure on pastoralists terms of trade.
Pastoralists terms of trade are compromised further by
crop failure experienced across the cropping livelihood
zones which have pushed up cereal prices.

Ethiopia: The market price in Jijiga market has remained
stable, despite the low demand in the market. For example

e
364 sheep were offered, but only 71 were sold. Because of
the low demand, the price of shoats has decreased slightly,
but remains higher than other regions. Information
gathered in Afder zone reveals that greater than 75% of the
animals put up for sale have been sold, but at prices that
were the lowest surveyed. Similarly, Liben zone had a very
high sell rate but instead with the highest prices
surveyed. In all regions, prices are decreasing as animals
become leaner.

c. Rainfall/forecasting:

Kenya: According to FEWS/NET, Kenya experiences mild
cyclical drought events approximately every 3 - 5 years
with more severe dry periods roughly in ten-year cycles.
Since 1998, successive poor rainy seasons have limited the
ability of poor households in parts of the ASAL (Arid and
Semi-Arid Lands) to recover lost assets and employ
traditional coping mechanisms. An interagency food
security assessment conducted between January 9 31, 2006
in Kenya confirmed that short-rains season totally failed
in much of eastern and northern pastoralist areas of Kenya.
Where rains occurred, they began late, were poorly
distributed, and ended early.

The crises also affected significant number of marginal
agricultural and agro-pastoralist communities living in
Kenyas arid and semi arid areas. For instance, out of the
3 million persons targeted for general food distributions,
approximately 2 million are classified as marginal crop
producers and agro-pastoralists. The drought is expected
to persist through the next month and a half, until the
onset of the long-rains season in early April, in
pastoralist districts.

A bi-annual climate outlook forum that brings together a
diverse group of scientists and practitioners is taking
place in Nairobi, Kenya from March 1 - 3, 2006. The main
objective of the forum is to develop a consensus climate
outlook for the March to May 2006 rainfall season, and the
associated food security outlook for the Greater Horn of
Africa. The forum will also discuss the potential impacts
of the consensus climate outlook on other socio-economic
sectors including water resources and hydropower management
and health among others sectors.

Ethiopia: The belg rains have started in some of the
highland areas of Ethiopia, which is promising as they have
arrived on time. Current weather forecasts suggest,
however, that the belg/gu rains have a 45 percent chance of
being below normal in the east, where they are desperately
needed. Rains have already been reported twice in Borena
zone, which is promising. USAID will continue to monitor
the performance of the rains and assess their impact on the
humanitarian crisis in the region.

Somalia: The water situation in Southern Somalia is
desperate. Most open water sources have dried up and the
bulk of deep well boreholes are non-functioning. Oxfam
reports that seven people have died from dehydration since
mid-January and that households are surviving on the
equivalent of three glass of water per person per day for
drinking, cooking, and washing. Even for this amount, some
household are walking up to 45 miles to access water in 104
degree Fahrenheit heat. Reportedly, some households are
drinking their own urine to survive. Further exacerbating

an already dire situation are reports from both FEWS and
FSAU that the Shabelle river which runs through Southern
Somalia is at risk to dry up completely.

Djibouti: Rains in February, although two weeks late have
essentially alleviated the threat in Eastern Djibouti.
Rains in Western Djibouti are not normally expected until
March, so the outcome is still pending.

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7. CONCLUSION
--------------

Governments, humanitarian organizations and donors have
mobilized emergency humanitarian assistance in all four
countries. Support includes food aid, emergency water
trucking, livestock feed provision, de-stocking, and
veterinary and human medicines provision. However, the
assistance is reportedly insufficient to stop the
deteriorating situation. Regional interventions are
planned to complement bilateral efforts and address cross-
border issues.

The priority should be to save human lives as well as lives
of reproductive, milking and pack animals. More urgent and
appropriate assistance is needed. Additionally,
contingency plans need to be drawn in the event that the
expected long rains are either below normal or poor in
these areas. USG and donors are planning for longer-term
interventions to address the recurrent livelihood failure
sparked by recurrent drought.

BELLAMY