Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06NAIROBI840
2006-02-24 10:10:00
SECRET
Embassy Nairobi
Cable title:  

SOMALIA: FIGHTING IN MOGADISHU AND POTENTIAL IMPACT

Tags:  PGOV PTER EAID PREL MOPS ASEC KPAO SO KE 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO7721
RR RUEHROV
DE RUEHNR #0840/01 0551010
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
R 241010Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9839
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHSA/AMEMBASSY PRETORIA 8051
RUEHYN/AMEMBASSY SANAA 0364
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC//OSD//
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA //POLAD//
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL//POLAD//
RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//POLAD//
RUCJBBA/COMUSNAVCENT MACDILL AFB FL//N2//
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 000840 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF, EUR, NEA
STATE PASS AID
LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/24/2026
TAGS: PGOV PTER EAID PREL MOPS ASEC KPAO SO KE
SUBJECT: SOMALIA: FIGHTING IN MOGADISHU AND POTENTIAL IMPACT
ON BAIDOA MEETING

REF: NAIROBI 766

CLASSIFIED BY A/POLCOUNS L.PETERSON, REASONS 1.4 (B,C,D)

SUMMARY
--------

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 000840

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF, EUR, NEA
STATE PASS AID
LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/24/2026
TAGS: PGOV PTER EAID PREL MOPS ASEC KPAO SO KE
SUBJECT: SOMALIA: FIGHTING IN MOGADISHU AND POTENTIAL IMPACT
ON BAIDOA MEETING

REF: NAIROBI 766

CLASSIFIED BY A/POLCOUNS L.PETERSON, REASONS 1.4 (B,C,D)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (S) Heavy fighting in Mogadishu February 18-21 between
the Alliance to Combat Terror and militias associated with
Jihadist groups was, at its heart, a conflict among sub-
clans of the large Hawiye clan. Several militias associated
with Islamic Courts and their founding sub-clans have
expanded their area of control in Mogadishu. Some sources
claim that Islamist control of the capital is now sufficient
to deny Mogadishu-based warlords access to most of the city,
but other sources tend to contradict this information. The
Mogadishu fighting may hinder attempts to bring the TFIs
together in Baidoa in a semblance of governance for the
country. Post proposes that Assistant Secretary consider
sending a letter to the main protagonists encouraging them
to maintain their commitment to a parliamentary meeting.
END SUMMARY.

ALLIANCE TO COMBAT TERROR
--------------


2. (S) An entity called the "Alliance for Peace Restoration
and Combat Against Terror" was launched February 18 at the
Mogadishu compound of TFG Warlord/MP/Minister for National
Security Mohamed Qanyare Afrah. Members of the alliance
were listed as:

TFG Warlords/MPs/Ministers:

-- Mohamed Qanyare Afrah (Hawiye Murosade clan)
-- Muse Sudi Yalahow, Minister for Commerce (Hawiye Abgal
Da'oud)
-- Omar Mohamed Mohamud (AKA "Filish" or "Finish"),Minister
for Religious Affairs (Hawiye Abgal Da'oud)
-- Botan Isse Alim (AKA "Harankunah"),Minister for
Demobilization (Hawiye Duduble)

Militia Commanders:

-- Abdi Nur Siyad (AKA "Abdi Wa'al" -- Hawiye Haber Gedir
Ayr clan)
-- Abdi Shuri Ali Hersi (Believed Darood Majerteen)
-- Isse Osman Ali (Unkn)

-- Abdi Hassan Awale Qeybdid (AKA "Abdiqeybdid" -- Hawiye
Haber Gedir Sa'ad)

Businessmen:

-- Bashir Raghe Shirar (Hawiye Abgal Warsangeli)
-- Abdirashid Shie Ilqeyte (Hawiye Haber Gedir Sa'ad)


3. (S) The announcement of the Alliance included a manifesto
that described the group's intention to confront Wahabist
groups accused of assassinations, protecting foreign
criminals, and carrying out intolerable acts in Mogadishu in
the name of Islam. Articles from Mogadishu's Xorriyadda
newspaper opined that the Alliance "... was established with
the help of the U.S. entity assigned with combat against
terror," and called businessman Bashir Raghe Shirar one of
the leaders of the group, stating that he had "close ties
with American agencies ... in particular the CIA ..."

FEBRUARY 18 COMBAT, FEBRUARY 19 WORDS
--------------


4. (C) Heavy fighting began early the morning of February

18. Shots were exchanged between Abdi Wa'al's militia and
members of a force controlled by one of Mogadishu's Islamic
Courts prior to the announcement of the Alliance, with the
Islamic courts suffering some casualties. Fighting
intensified following the announcement of the Alliance, as
members of the aforementioned Islamic Court militia demanded

NAIROBI 00000840 002 OF 003


that Qanyare turn Abdi Wa'al over for Ayr clan-based
justice. Qanyare refused to do so.


5. (S) February 19 saw a lull in the fighting. Press
reports and indications from personnel working in Mogadishu
for the European Commission (EC) and the UN Department for
Security and Safety (UN DSS) reported that key figures from
the Islamic Courts, including Hassan Dahir Awaeys (Haber
Gedir Ayr) were disseminating propaganda through the Ayr-
owned media. Ayaamaha newspaper reported a call for Jihad
against the Alliance from the Sheikh Ali Sufi Mosque in
south Mogadishu, as well as demonstrations against the
Alliance led by the Movement for Civil Society. Xorriyadda
newspaper reported that Warlord/MP Yusuf Mire Serar (Hawiye
Haber Gedir Ayr),Vice Chairman of the Kismayo-based Juba
Valley Alliance (JVA),condemned the Alliance as a ploy to
establish control over the capital for its members.

FEBRUARY 20-21 -- CLAN COMBAT
--------------


6. (C) February 20 saw the fighting resume. Somali contacts
across clan lines stated that the veneer of a battle between
anti-terrorists and Islamist extremists had worn through to
show the sub-clan conflict underneath, pitting Qanyare's
Murosade against the Ayr and their associated Islamic Court
militias, with forces of the Warsangeli businessman and
Islamist supporter Abucar Omar 'Adaani in support of the
Ayr. The fighting centered in South Mogadishu and the
southwest outskirts of the city around Danyile, where
Qanyare has his compound and airfield.


7. (C) Combat erupted again with first light February 21.
Early reports indicated that Qanyare's forces may have
succeeded in pushing the Ayr and Ayr-dominated court
militias back toward central Mogadishu, but by the end of
the day most observers agreed that the two groups had fought
to a stalemate, with the Ayr controlling some more areas of
the capital than before February 18. Somalia Watcher's
contacts describe Qanyare as isolated in his compound
outside the city, and Muse Sudi and his fellow Da'oud
clansman Omar Filish as confined to their suburb of Medina.
We cannot independently confirm these claims.

FEBRUARY 22 -- CLAN MEDIATION
--------------


8. (S) As of February 22, Mogadishu was quiet, with a
mediation effort among the Warsangeli, Ayr, and Murosade
elders apparently bearing fruit (and with militias likely
out of ammunition). Militias from 'Adaani and Sheikh Sharif
Sheikh Ahmed are both reported to have withdrawn somewhat
from areas they had threatened to consolidated positions.
UN DSS sources in Mogadishu report that around 50 MPs were
able to leave the capital en route to Baidoa.

COMMENT
--------------

9. (S) The results of the fighting may be seismic or
inconsequential - it is simply too early to tell. Islamists
have definitely gained turf and may have won hearts and
minds among a public tired of warlords and suspicious of
foreign interference. Some contacts say the public
perceives the Alliance members as having grossly overstepped
their boundaries, having attacked all devout Muslims, not
just violent Jihadi extremists.


10. (S) Attempts to bring the TFIs together under the
umbrella of the Transitional Federal Parliament in Baidoa
could be threatened by the Mogadishu fighting. Before the
fighting, the Ayr were ostracized from the power centers of
the TFIs, and the Jihadists among them were fearful that a
return of effective governance would threaten their
survival. After the fighting, these elements may feel more
comfortable. Political Ayr might now state that they must
have a place in the TFIs - if they ask for one.


NAIROBI 00000840 003 OF 003


ACTION REQUEST
--------------

11. (C) Plans continue for a parliamentary meeting in
Baidoa. If the event opens as planned on February 26, it is
likely real discussions will only start several weeks later,
as facilities are still being rehabilitated. In this recess
period, given the uncertainty of the situation in Mogadishu,
Post considers it important to emphasize to all members of
the TFIs the necessity of follow-through on the
parliamentary meeting. Letters last month from Ambassador
Bellamy to the TFI President and the principal warlords in
Mogadishu and several other sensitive regions (copied to the
Prime Minister and the Speaker) were seen as positive, and
may have helped to build some support for a session of
parliament. We believe we should step up to another level
diplomatically and therefore recommend that Assistant
Secretary Frazer issue a letter to these same leaders.

SIPDIS
Following is a proposed text.

12 (C) Text of a possible letter to main protagonists in
Somalia:

BEGIN PROPOSED TEXT

The United States Government is following closely reports of
the resurgence of violence in Mogadishu. We believe that
these events make it that much more important that the
Somali Transitional Federal Parliament convene as scheduled.
We see this as indispensable to the process of establishing
functioning institutions leading to effective governance in
Somalia. Only through effective governance can the
extremist threat in Somalia, well known to the international
community, be appropriately confronted.

The United States Government supports the convening of the
Somali Transitional Federal Institutions. We call upon all
Transitional Federal Ministers and Members of Parliament, as
well as the civil society, business and religious
communities to join in these concrete steps toward
implementing their commitments to the Somali people to bring
peace through inclusive dialogue and reconciliation, within
the framework of the Transitional Federal Charter.

END PROPOSED TEXT.

BELLAMY