KENYA DROUGHT UPDATE ? FEBRUARY 2006

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NAIROBI 000744

SIPDIS

AIDAC

AID/DCHA FOR MHESS, WGARVELINK, LROGERS
DCHA/OFDA FOR KISAACS, GGOTTLIEB, MMARX, IMACNAIRN,
KCHANNELL, LPOWERS, CABLA
(A)AA/AFR FOR WWARREN
DCHA/FFP FOR BHAMMINK, DNELSON, SBRADLEY
AFR/EA FOR JESCALONA, JBORNS
ROME FOR FODAG
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH
BRUSSELS FOR PLERNER
STATE FOR JGAFFNEY, NGAREY
NAIROBI FOR ABEO
NSC FOR JMELINE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID KE EAGR EIND PGOV SOCI
SUBJECT: KENYA DROUGHT UPDATE ? FEBRUARY 2006

REF: NAIROBI 7343 AND PREVIOUS

SUMMARY


1. The short rains (October-December) food security
interagency assessment has been completed. The
overall assessment process and methodology was
coordinated and backstopped by the Kenya Food
Security Steering Group (KFSSG) comprising of
representatives of GOK, NGO and UN agencies.
USAID/Kenya Emergency Coordinator participated in the
assessment in an observer capacity covering
pastoralist areas in the North East.


2. The assessment find that short-rains season failed
in much of eastern and northern Kenya. Where rains
occurred, they began late, were poorly distributed,
and ended early. The current drought extends not
only through Kenya but also much of southern Somalia
and Southern Ethiopia. Recovery from the extended
drought will not be immediate, and pastoralists in
particular will need continued support to avoid
further erosion of their productive assets.


3. On February 8, 2006, the GOK made an appeal for
international assistance to 3.5 million drought-
affected people in Kenya. It is estimated that a
total of 395,026 MT of food will be required to
assist victims of drought through March 2007. Out of
this requirement, approximately 60,000 MT will be met
through domestic production, leaving a net import
requirement of 335,026 MT. In addition, $21.7
million will be required in non-food assistance.


4. US Ambassador to the FAO and WFP, Tony Hall
visited drought-affected areas of Kenya from February
13-15, 2006. End summary.

The food security assessment framework


5. An interagency and multi-sectoral food security
assessment, organized by the Kenya Food Security
Group (KFSSG) has completed the fieldwork and data
analysis and issued its final report on February 8,

2006.


6. The assessment methodology was based on a
livelihoods approach to understanding vulnerability,
and used an adapted version (for rapid assessment) of
the household food economy method for the field data
collection. Given the urgency in conducting the
assessment, the KFSSG determined to undertake the
assessment in three phases: 1) The first phase
included districts where there were clear indications
of serious drought impacts on food security. 2) In
phase two, rapid assessment teams spent 2-5 days in
meeting with the Arid Lands Officers and District
Steering Groups in severely drought-affected areas
and discussing food and non-food needs. 3) The final
phase of the assessment centered on districts where
livelihood strategies are more diverse and the impact
of failed rainfall on income sources, assets and
coping mechanisms more complex.


7. The assessment covered 27 districts from January
9-31, 2006. It included quantitative data collection
at the household, market and community level and more
in-depth discussions with the District Steering
Groups (DSGs). As appropriate, the assessment teams
held separate meetings with lead NGOs dealing with
food security that have representation in the
District, local district experts, local community
based organizations, etc.


8. Based on the assessment, approximately 3.5 million
people in Kenya will require various short to medium
term relief assistance through the next short rains
harvest in March 2007. The relief assistance includes
an estimated 395,026 MT of food valued at
approximately $221 million. In addition, the report
identifies $21.7 million worth of non-food assistance
in health and nutrition, water and sanitation, and
emergency agricultural and livestock interventions.


9. The report also highlights the need to strengthen
food security analyses to allow a more sophisticated
analysis of the acute and chronic food security
issues prevailing in Kenya.

Food security and agro-climatic conditions


10. According to FEWS/NET, Kenya experiences mild
cyclical drought events approximately every 3-5 years
with more severe dry periods roughly in ten-year
cycles. Since 1998, successive poor rainy seasons
have limited the ability of poor households in parts
of the ASAL (Arid and Semi-Arid Lands) to recover
lost assets and employ traditional coping mechanisms.
In addition to lack of rains, limited purchasing
power, political marginalization (in the pastoralist
context) and limited livelihood options are
exacerbating the drought in Kenya.


11. The current drought may be characterized as a
regional crisis in which pastoralists and agro-
pastoralists in Northern Kenya, Southern Somalia and
Southeastern Ethiopia are all affected at the same
time, disrupting their trans-boundary mobility (in
search of water and grazing) and traditional coping
strategies.


12. In Western Kenya, the long-rains (March- June)
season are the most important season accounting for
close to 85 percent of total annual crop output.
However, while the contribution of the short-rains
season is significantly lower, it remains the most
important season for farm household in the drought-
prone southeastern lowlands. The short-rains season
accounts for close to 70 percent of annual output in
these areas.


13. While overall national crop production is
favorable, (most of it is derived from the western
highlands) farmers in the lowlands have experienced a
series of exceptionally poor seasons that culminated
in a near-total crop failure during the 2005 October-
December short-rains season.


14. The purchasing capacities of farm households in
the lowlands have declined markedly and many
households are under severe food stress. Although
cereal prices are lower than average and lower than
in the previous year, drought affected-farmers are
unable to purchase quantities of grain that can
sustain household food security.


15. According to the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA),
total national output for the 2005/2006 season is
about 2.7 million MT, marginally higher than average
annual maize output. While current domestic supply
is sufficient to meet local non-emergency demand
through the beginning of the 2006 long rains harvest
(at the end of July),a good 2006 long-rains season
is critical in replenishing national maize supply.
Should the long-rains season fail to come by April,
maize prices could dramatically rise as farmers and
traders hold on to their stocks for speculative
purposes.

Emergency Operation (EMOP) status


16. Based on the short-rains assessment, EMOP
districts increased from 17 to 26 and the number of
people requiring food aid has sharply increased from
1.2 to 3.5 million. According to the World Food
Program, over 30,000 MT of monthly ration is required
to address immediate food needs of 3.5 million people
through March 2007.


17. Existing pipeline (including GOK?s recent pledge
of 60,000 MT and USG additional contribution of
10,000 MT) will not go beyond end March 2006.
Shortly after the GOK?s appeal for international
assistance on February 8, 2006, a joint GOK/WFP press
statement was issued, reiterating the need for
donors? immediate response to the appeal to respond
to the urgent relief needs of approximately 3.5
million drought-affected people throughout Kenya.


18. In FY 2006, the USG provided 12,000 MT of wheat,
which was swapped for 14,400 MT of locally provided
maize, and an additional 10,000 MT in assorted
commodities. In addition, the USG, through OFDA, is
planning to contribute $1.5 towards the non-food
sector through UNICEF and various NGOs.


19. More recent non-USG contributions include Euro 5
million from EU/ECHO, GBP 1 million from the UK, Euro
1 million from France, Euro 1 million from Ireland,
$500,000 from Italy and $200,000 from Turkey.
Additional contributions are also expected from other
donors.

Ambassador Tony Hall's Visit to Kenya


20. US Ambassador to the FAO and WFP, Tony Hall
visited Kenya from February 13-15, 2006. During this
period, he visited a drought-affected pastoralist
district (Wajir) in Northeastern Kenya and a
successful irrigation project in Rift Valley
(Turkana, supported by P.L.480 TII development
program. He was accompanied by Ambassador William
Bellamy and USAID/Kenya Mission Director, Stephen
Haykin in his trip to Northeastern province.
(Reported septel)


21. Under the auspices of REDSO, a Pastoralist
Working Group (PWG) in Kenya briefed Ambassador Tony
Hall about the regional food crisis and the group's
effort to address the problem through potential
famine funds.


Discussions on longer-term food security issues



22. At present, there are initiatives within the
agency and among humanitarian actors in Kenya to
address the problem of persistent food insecurity and
extreme vulnerability in the region. In addition to
responding to the prevailing humanitarian needs,
USAID/Kenya is actively participating in these
discussions aimed at addressing the root causes
recurrent drought and chronic vulnerability in
Kenya's Arid and Semi Arid Lands (ASAL).


23. One of these initiatives is a Pastoralist Working
Group (PWG) that has been formed, under the auspices
of REDSO, to brainstorm on the root causes of
vulnerability, particularly in the pastoralist areas
of the Horn of Africa where vulnerability to drought
is evident. The group aims at identifying viable
interventions and ultimately developing a proposal to
tap into potential famine funds. USAID/Kenya co-
chairs this group and plays key role in the
development of the proposal.


24. USAID/Kenya is also actively engaged in informal
Humanitarian Donor Group discussions, organized to
improve understanding of the factors underlying
repeated food crises in marginal areas and
identifying new approaches to breaking the cycle of
relief dependency. Further details on these
discussions will be provided in a separate cable in
the future.

Conclusion and recommendations



25. The failure of the short rains in Kenya has a
regional context as similar drought conditions exist
in neighboring Somalia and Southern Ethiopia, among
other places in the region. As a result, pastoralist
livelihoods across the country and the region are
severely threatened as the very basis of their food
security system, livestock, are dying in
unprecedented numbers due to lack of water, browse
and pasture.


26. However, the crises also affected significant
number of marginal agricultural and agro-pastoralist
communities living in Kenya's semi Arid and Semi Arid
areas. For instance, out of the 3 million persons
targeted for general food distributions,
approximately 2 million are classified as marginal
crop producers and agro-pastoralists.


27. The food crisis in marginal agricultural and ASAL
areas is clearly much deeper than Emergency. It is
rather a fundamentally chronic poverty problem,
necessitating strategies to address the root causes
of food insecurity. This calls for urgent policy
actions by the GOK that promote targeted investment
in the areas in order to reduce levels of poverty and
extreme vulnerability. Notwithstanding the climate
variations and the ensuing unreliability of rains,
the areas are endowed with diverse resources that, if
managed creatively, could significantly improve the
livelihoods of the communities at risk.


28. USAID/Kenya will continue to play an active role
in the dialogue around understanding the factors
underlying repeated food crisis in various parts of
the country to find new approaches to protect poor
people from short-term shocks and reduce their food
insecurity in the medium term. This discussion will
enable to affirm joint GOK donor commitment to
tackling chronic food insecurity in a more
appropriate manner. In this context, it is also
recommended that the food security analysis be
enhanced to allow a more sophisticated analysis of
the acute and chronic food security issues facing
millions of Kenyans today.


29. Meantime, given the likelihood of serious
emergency food pipeline break beyond March 2006, the
USG should strengthen its relief assistance to meet
urgent food and non-food needs of millions of people
expected to suffer from the drought. BELLAMY