SOMALIA: ACTIVIST MP SEES A PLOT UNDER EVERY STONE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 000659

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF, EUR, NEA
STATE PASS AID
LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/14/2016
TAGS: PGOV PTER EAID PREL MOPS ASEC KPAO SO KE
SUBJECT: SOMALIA: ACTIVIST MP SEES A PLOT UNDER EVERY STONE

REF: (A) 05 NAIROBI 2488, (B) NAIROBI 633

CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL COUNSELOR MICHAEL J. FITZPATRICK,
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Asha Haji Elmi, Somalia's most dynamic female MP,
privately says she fears her life may be in danger when she
attends the upcoming parliamentary session in Baidoa, but
insists she will attend. Amidst swirling conspiracy
theories, she claimed that all facts point to underhanded
agreements between the President and the Speaker to ensure
the political longevity of the Prime Minister. Asha swore
to make the Speaker the first to fall if he attempts to
thwart the will of Parliament. She ommitted to develop a
national agenda for the Parliament's Baidoa session,
including the replacement of the current Council of
Ministers with a body able to work for the good of the
country. END SUMMARY

PERSONAL SECURITY FEARS
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2. (C) Somalia Watcher met February 13 with Asha Haji Elmi,
Transitional Federal Parliament (TFP) MP and director of a
Mogadishu-based NGO, Save Somali Women and Children. Asha
has been very active in Somali politics for a number of
years. She played a significant role as the only woman on
the six-member coordinating committee at the Arta, Djibouti
conference that resulted in the 2001 creation of the
stillborn Transitional National Government of President
Abdiqasim Salad Hassan. She was a leading figure in pushing
a civil society agenda throughout the Somalia National
Reconciliation Conference (SNRC) in Kenya, 2002-2004, while
insisting that the inclusion of the major Somali warlords
was critical to any effort to return governance to Somalia.
She was also a key organizer within civil society and
women's groups in June 2005, pushing the Mogadishu warlords
to remove their men and roadblocks from the capital, and
squeezing funds from the business community to pay for
temporary cantonment of the militiamen (reftel A).


3. (C) Asha told Somalia Watcher that her first concern
regarding attendance at a February 26 session of parliament
in Baidoa was for her own safety. She opined that her
outspoken views and strong opposition to Ethiopian
interference in Somali affairs put her at the top of Addis
Ababa's "hit list". She claimed that the Somali regions of
Bakool, Hiran, and Bay (where Baidoa is located) are the
playground of Ethiopian operatives, and said she wouldn't be
surprised if she and other activists met with "accidents" at
some point during the parliament's meeting. Asha floated
the idea that in fact, this parliamentary session should be
held outside Somalia, but admitted that such a move would
kill the institution, showing that the Transitional Federal
Institutions (TFIs) were unable to function inside the
country. She therefore insisted that she would attend the
Baidoa session, whatever the risks.

THERE MUST BE A CATCH
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4. (C) Asha expressed a strong conviction that something
underhanded was going on among the Transitional Federal
President, Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed; the Speaker of the TFP,
Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden; the Prime Minister, Ali Mohammed
Gedi; and the governments of Ethiopia and Italy. She
speculated that the only way to have obtained the PM's
acquiescence to allow parliament to meet in Baidoa instead
of his "interim capital" of Jowhar was to have assured him
that he would play a key role in setting the parliamentary
agenda. This would allow the PM, with the support of the
Speaker and the President, to keep substantive issues off
the agenda, including any attempt to table a motion of no
confidence in the PM and the Transitional Federal Government
(TFG -- defined as the PM and his Council of Ministers).

NAIROBI 00000659 002 OF 002


She repeated what we have heard a number of times -- that
Ethiopia has decided to back the President and the Speaker
in pushing for a session of parliament, and that the PM,
with backing from Italy, is seeking to turn the session into
a committee-creating forum, that will operate in a
"workshop" format designed to build the institutional
capabilities, but not to confront any of the unresolved
conflicts of the past year.

A NATIONAL AGENDA
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5. (C) Asha Haji Elmi told Somalia Watcher she was committed
to ensure that the parliament would not be "hijacked" into
protecting the PM or his non-functioning Council of
Ministers. She threatened to push for the impeachment of
the Speaker -- her long-time political ally -- should he
attempt to use his influence over the parliamentary agenda
to shield the PM. In her view, this session of parliament
must tackle head-on the issues of reconciliation that were
skipped over during the SNRC in the participants' hurry to
get directly to a division of the positions of power through
the naming of a parliament and government. And, with the PM
having become such a divisive figure, unable to unite a
session of his Council of Ministers, a first order of
business would have to be determining whether he has the
confidence of the parliament.

BUYING THE VOTES? WITH WHAT?
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6. (C) Asha stated that MP/Minister for National
Security/Warlord Mohamed Qanyare Afrah had told her during
the week of February 6 that emissaries from the PM had
approached him to find out his price for support. Asha
reported that Qanyare asked how much the PM had in hand for
his lobbying effort in the parliament; when told the total
vote-buying fund was $50,000, the "Minister" pointed out
that such a risible sum would barely buy his vote alone, and
offered to contribute $500 to the fund.

COMMENT
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7. (C) In this conversation, Asha was notable for her lack
of focus and clarity of thought. She intermingled fears of
Ethiopian death squads and willingness to disrupt the
parliament with rumors of Ethiopian plots -- to ensure the
parliament meets. She wove conspiracy theories putting the
Speaker on every side of the debate, now pushing to install
Qanyare as PM, now shielding Gedi from a no-confidence vote.
We see her stories and concerns not so much as reflecting a
reality on the ground, but rather as reflection of the deep
confusion and ambivalence many Somali political and civil
society activists are feeling about finally sitting in
parliament. They readily admit that the TFIs must be
declared a failure, and dead, if the parliament cannot
manage to come together in a plenary session inside Somalia.
At the same time, they fear what will happen if such a
session occurs. END COMMENT.

BELLAMY