SENATOR FEINGOLD & FOREIGN MINISTER TUJU DISCUSS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 005130

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2016
TAGS: KE PREL SO
SUBJECT: SENATOR FEINGOLD & FOREIGN MINISTER TUJU DISCUSS
SOMALIA


Classified By: PolCouns Andre for reasons 1.4 B & D.


1. (C) Summary: Kenya supports a UNSC resolution adjusting
the Somalia arms embargo to permit an IGAD peace support
mission. Tuju considers passage of such a resolution to be
"a strong signal that the international community will not
accept an extremist state in the region and that the CIC must
accept the legitimacy of the TFG." End Summary.


2. (U) Senator Russell Feingold met with Foreign Minister
Rafael Tuju and Trade Minister Mukhisa Kituyi on 28 November.
Ambassador Ranneberger, Senate Staffer Evan Gottesman,
Senate Staffer Grey Frandsen and PolCouns (notetaker) also
attended the meeting. Tuju opened the meeting by speaking of
the excellent partnership that exists between the American
and Kenyan governments, citing the USG's "highly successful"
PEPFAR program and our close coordination on Somalia as
examples of this partnership. Tuju and Kituyi also discussed
Kenyan issues, Darfur and Iraq with Senator Feingold. We
will report those discussions septel.


3. (C) Tuju noted that Kenya's population includes about 1.5
to 2 million ethnic Somalis, settled in North East province,
portions of Eastern province and a densely populated area of
Nairobi. (Comment: Our best estimate puts ethnic Somali
Kenyans at about 1.2 million. End Comment.) Tuju clearly
implied that this reality influences the GoK's thinking and
room to maneuver on Somalia. Referring to the leadership of
Somalia's Council of Islamic Courts (CIC),Tuju vented his
frustrations in attempting dialog with extremists who have an
attitude of "you are either for us or against us." Tuju
spoke in favor of a "partial lifting of the UN arms embargo"
on Somalia for the purpose of an IGAD deployment. If
international rules do not allow for legitimate intervention,
then we will have illegitimate intervention if essential
national interests are threatened by the CIC. International
rule of law is best supported by a partial lifting of the
arms embargo to permit an intervention sanctioned by regional
institutions. The African Union (AU) authorized IGAD
(Intergovernmental Authority on Development) to solve the
problem of Somalia. Recognizing that IGAD has a capacity
problem, the AU has now authorized IGAD to augment the force
with peacekeepers from outside IGAD.


4. (C) Senator Feingold queried Tuju about the GoK's
reaction to a CIC move on Baidoa, the seat of Somalia's
Transitional Federal Government (TFG). Tuju responded, "If
we are threatened, then we will react in some way, even if
the international community does not like it. If the
situation gets out of hand, then no one can blame Ethiopia or
Kenya for defending themselves." (Comment: We believe that
the Kenyan armed forces are very unlikely to come to the
defense of Baidoa. However, any military moves by the CIC
against Kenyan territory would be countered by force, as
happened in the 1960s 'Shifta War.' GoK leaders are well
aware of CIC leader Hassan Aweys' long-standing goal to unite
all Somali-populated regions of East Africa into a single
polity. End Comment.)


5. (C) Senator Feingold asked Tuju if a partial lifting of
the arms embargo by the U.N. Security Council was the "only
way to prevent regional war." Tuju replied "No, not the only
way, but it would be a strong signal that the international
community will not accept an extremist state in the region,
and that the CIC must accept the legitimacy of the TFG."
Tuju derided the European Union as "favoring appeasement."
He added dismissively "they think they can turn the CIC into
good guys."


6. (C) As concerns the recent UN Panel of Experts report on
the arms embargo, Tuju proudly pointed out that Kenya stands
alone in the region as the only country NOT violating the
arms embargo. When Senator Feingold asked if Kenya seeks to
discourage others from violating the arms embargo, Tuju
replied, "No, we haven't tried because we do not believe they
would listen." (Comment: While Kenya is clearly the
economic colossus of its region, it typically does not seek
to influence other governments on issues other than those
that most directly pertain to Kenya's economic and trade
interests.


7. (C) COMMENT: Senator Feingold received conflicting
messages on Kenya's position with regard to an IGASOM
deployment. Tuju has consistently pushed for immediate and
tangible support for the TFG, and he has aligned himself
closely with USG support for an IGASOM deployment. However,
day-to-day implementation of Kenyan policy falls to Mohamed
Affey, an ethnic Somali and former MP who is Kenya's
Ambassador to Somalia. Affey has demonstrated a notable

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willingness to accommodate the CIC well beyond the policy
enunciated by his boss. In a separate meeting with Senator
Feingold (reported septel),Affey said an IGASOM deployment
should be a last resort, "only when there is nothing else to
check on the list of all we can do." Affey has also been
much less forward leaning on the use of Kenyan forces. He
told the Senator that short of an attack on Kenya by the
courts he did not foresee any situation in which Kenyan
troops would be deployed against the CIC. END COMMENT.
RANNEBERGER