WHEELING AND DEALING AS KENYA'S OLDEST PARTY SPLITS

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 005099

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2026
TAGS: KDEM PGOV KCOR KE
SUBJECT: WHEELING AND DEALING AS KENYA'S OLDEST PARTY SPLITS

REF: NAIROBI 3270

Classified By: D/Political Counselor Craig White for reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The brewing split in Kenya's KANU party
boiled over on November 28 when party leaders elected from a
rival faction were officially registered, ousting Chairman
Uhuru Kenyatta from the party's top seat. The registration
of Biwott as Chairman leaves Kenyatta legally no longer
Leader of the Official Opposition, although the majority of
KANU supporters do not line up with Biwott, a symbol of
everything that was wrong with the Moi years. Former
President Moi's own hand in the KANU power struggle was heavy
as he helps deliver a divided opposition to President Kibaki
and his supporters for the next election. END SUMMARY.

KANU DIVIDED: UHURU VS. MOI'S BOYS
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2. (SBU) On November 28, the Registrar of Societies accepted
the names of KANU party officials elected during a November
25-26 delegates conference in Mombasa held by one of Kenya's
most notoriously corrupt old hacks, Nicholas Biwott. In
registering himself and his cronies as the party's leaders,
Biwott has, on paper at least, taken over Kenya's oldest
political party from Uhuru Kenyatta and his supporters. In a
move fueled by Moi's fierce opposition to KANU's
participation in the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM, now
ODM-K following its registration as a political party),KANU
supporters split into to two factions following the November
2005 constitutional referendum: those who, like Kenyatta,
favored entering a coalition in the 2007 general election,
and those who allied with Moi and Biwott insisting KANU
should go it alone. The fissure widened when Kenyatta
officially declared his intention to bring KANU into ODM-K as
a "corporate member" following the party's stinging defeat in
the July by-elections (reftel).


3. (C) The KANU coup is both a challenge and an opportunity
for Kenyatta. He told PolAssistant he would not take his case
to the courts (yet -- a court proceeding is necessary to
challenge the Biwott registration),but instead fight his
battle publicly. Kenyatta enjoys strong support from KANU
party members who backed him at a November 27 Nairobi
National Delegates' Conference. In the past it has not been
Kenyatta's style to conduct his political business in the
streets and at rallies. Kenyatta may ultimately benefit from
this setback as an opportunity to raise his national image,
improving his presidential prospects. On November 28,
Kenyatta was calm, noting that he and his colleagues still
have their registration certificates.

LET'S MAKE A DEAL
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4. (SBU) Long the godfather of KANU, Moi's influence is
fading within his party, but he remains indisputably well
connected -- including to President Kibaki. Days before the
Biwott KANU conference, Moi had an hour long meeting with
Kibaki at State House according to a report in the Daily
Nation on November 23. In addition, it is rumored that
Internal Security Minister and Standard Media Raid mastermind
John Michuki had a hand in the expedited and questionable
registration of the Biwott slate of officers. Under KANU's
constitution, Biwott had no authority to call the rival
delegates' meeting in Mombasa November 25-26. Given the
flimsy basis for Biwott's "election", the registrar should
have summoned Kenyatta and sought an explanation for the
rival lists of officers. The Biwott officers were registered
despite a written letter of protest from the Kenyatta group.

COMMENT: OLD DOGS, OLD TRICKS
--------------


5. (C) Moi is not supporting Biwott simply because they are
old friends. More likely, he's made a deal with Kibaki: in
return for ongoing protection from corruption investigations,
and perhaps other considerations, Moi delivers a split
opposition, helping Kibaki achieve another win in 2007.
Corrupt to the core (he was the first Kenyan to be banned
from entering the U.S.),Biwott in any party leadership
position is unwelcome; Biwott supported by the government is
still more unsettling. Thankfully, Kenyans generally have a
low opinion of Biwott as a reminder of everything that was
wrong with the 24 Moi years. While Kenyatta may eventually
benefit from the visibility of a national campaign to retain
control of KANU, the very public opposition split is a coup
for Kibaki -- for now. END COMMENT.
RANNEBERGER