ETHNIC SOMALIS DISCUSS ETHIOPIA, THE ISLAMIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 003876

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2016
TAGS: PREL KE ET SO
SUBJECT: ETHNIC SOMALIS DISCUSS ETHIOPIA, THE ISLAMIC
COURTS, THE TFG, AND THE U.S.


Classified By: Political Counselor Larry Andre for reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (U) This message is part of a series following an early
August USAID-sponsored conflict mitigation workshop in
Mandera, Northeastern Province, Kenya. This message was
cleared with the USAID participant in the discussions.

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Summary
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2. (C) Cross-border conflict mitigation efforts among
ethnic Somalis in the Mandera area of Kenya are working.
Many ethnic Somalis in the region despise the Transitional
Federal Government, feel a mix of enthusiasm and fear
concerning the rise of the Union of Islamic Courts, and for
the most part, strongly resent the efforts of the Ethiopian
government to shape the region. Some predict eventual
splits within the Courts along clan lines. End Summary.

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Cross-Border Conflict Mitigation Workshop
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3. (U) From August 7 - 10, a USAID-sponsored conflict
mitigation planning workshop took place in Mandera, Kenya
at the northeastern tip of Kenya's Northeastern Province,
an ethnic Somali region where Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya
meet. Among other objectives, the workshop was designed to
bring Ethiopian participants into the framework of an
existing dialogue between Kenyan and Somali nationals for
the purpose of preventing and mitigating conflict. Poloff
listened in on many of the discussions, and spoke
with local ethnic Somalis, both workshop participants and
others.


4. (U) USAID has long worked in the region to address
sources of conflict. In northeast Kenya, as well as
neighboring areas of Ethiopia and Somalia, serious crimes
often lead to widespread vendettas in which each member of
the victim's clan or subclan seeks vengence against any
available member of the perpetrator's clan or subclan.
The ensuing chain reaction of vendetta killings sometimes
verges on clan warfare. The cycle of violence can be
stopped through early intervention, requiring sustained
efforts from government, religious, and tribal leaders.

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Mandera Town: Life On the Border
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5. (U) The population of Mandera town (about 30,000 in the
1999 census) rises sharply in daylight hours, as hundreds
of ethnic Somalis from the two neighboring countries cross
the border each morning to work, study, and trade, only to
leave by 6 p.m. each night. If they overstay, they risk
arrest. Mandera town is hot, dusty, and poor, with only a
tiny stretch of paved street. Most people live in clan-
based family compounds, where behind cement walls or thorn
fences traditional Somali huts are clustered. Donkey carts
far outnumber the few cars. Mandera's economy is heavily
dependent on the government and NGOs, for both services and
income. The town of Bula Hawo lies directly across from
the town of Mandera, in the Gedo district of Somalia.
Smuggling is an important source of income for many in Bula
Hawo (septel).

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Frank Discussions with Working-Level Administrators
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6. (C) A USAID/State team met with local NGO officials
from both the Somali and the Kenyan sides of the border
who have extensive peace-building and conflict resolution
experience. Participants, besides the USAID/State team,
included Ahmed Ismail ("Zebe"),coordinator for the
Gedo-based NGO Consortium of Somalia (and a former District
Commissioner of Bula Hawo); Ismail Mohamed, also working
for the NGO Consortium; Abdiya Hassan, a Kenyan Somali
woman who works for the Mandera Development and Peace
Committee (MDPC),and Gedo Ma'alim, an official of the
Arid Lands Resource Management Project (ALRMP). In the
absence of official Ethiopian participation, our NGO
interlocuters felt free to share their concerns about
Ethiopian involvement in Somalia. Given our
interlocutors' status as working-level administrators,
they are well placed to communicate common sentiments
among the residents of Somalia's Gedo district and

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the neighboring areas of Kenya's North Eastern Province.

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Conflict Resolution Efforts Produce Results
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7. (C) "Zebe" (strictly protect) opened discussions by
describing the impact to date of the conflict resolution
programs on relations between Mandera and Gedo Provinces.
Before, he said, Kenyan government personnel had no
official meetings with Somali nationals. If a small
incident took place in Mandera between Kenyans and Somalis,
Kenyan officials immediately closed the border, imposing
hardships on both sides of the line. "There was no process
to resolve conflict," he said, but now, "everything is
resolved peacefully." Conflict can always come, but "we
have the capacity to solve it. The only gap is with
Ethiopia." Zebe offered an illustration: five days
earlier, the Kenyan District Commissioner had called him to
tell him of the kidnapping of a Kenyan citizen from Kenya
to Somalia (probably for defaulting on a debt). As NGO
Coordinator in Bula Hawo, he began working with his
contacts on the Somali side to find the man (he was
still working on the problem).

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But Ethiopia Needs To Be Brought In
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8. (C) Gedo Ma'lim from the (Kenyan) ALRMP contrasted the
Kenya/Somalia mutual search for solutions with the
Kenya/Ethiopia relationship. Recently in Ethiopia a Kenyan
was killed, but there is no way for local officials to work
directly together to solve the crime and mitigate conflict
arising from the killing.

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Gedo,s View of the TFG: Warlords, Puppets, Losers
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9. (C) After 15 years in which clan leaders exercised
power, Somalis gave the Transitional Federal Government
(TFG) a chance to try to solve Somalia's problems, but "now
we see their quality," Zebe said. The perception is that
"the TFG is the warlords, so no one supports them." The
further perception that Ethiopia "owns" the TFG has "united
the Somali nation against Ethiopia," and by extension
against the TFG. Within the Transitional Federal
Institutions (TFIs),Zebe reserved his harshest criticism
for Gedo,s MPs in the parliament. "They all support
Ethiopia," he said, and "they are so illiterate they don't
even know how to pray." "People say only the Ethiopians
are supporting the TFG," according to Zebe,s colleague
Ismail Hassan. If war came between the TFG in Baidoa and
the Courts in Mogadishu, he went on, people believe the TFG
would be "kicked out."

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Gedo,s View of the UIC: "Bravo, But..."
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10. (C) In sharp contrast, Zebe noted that the Union of
Islamic Courts (UIC) has won "bravos" from all Somalis for
defeating the warlords, ending the roadblocks in Mogadishu,
and opening the airport (NOTE: And now the port also. END
NOTE). Nonetheless, the people of Gedo region are not
eager for the Courts to eliminate all opponents and rule
alone, Zebe cautioned, because of their own experience.
"People in Gedo know the people involved," Zebe said.
Hassan Dahir Aweys, the head of the Supreme Islamic Council
within the UIC, led the forces of Al Ittihad Al Islami
(AIAI) in 1997 against the Somali National Front (SNF),
which was backed by the Ethiopian government. The war
between the two "killed 500 men" and destroyed vital
infrastructure over the two-year conflict, until the SNF
was defeated and took refuge in Ethiopia. "The people of
Gedo don't welcome the drumbeats coming out of Mogadishu,"
Zebe concluded. "We know what's happening in both Baidoa
and Mogadishu, and we don't want to jump from the frying
pan into the fire."

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Ethiopia Hated--Except When It Makes Food Flow
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11. (C) Kenyan citizen Abdiya Hassan pointed out that in
July, the militias were blocking CARE aid convoys into
Gedo. When the Ethiopian military came in, the local

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militias fled from their roadblocks. The people of Gedo
were so pleased that "they gave (the Ethiopian soldiers)
mattresses." How could the people of Gedo, who thought of
Ethiopia as "the croc in the river" in 2004, give them
mattresses in July, another Kenyan Somali asked. "Because
of our need," was Zebe's response.

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Anti-U.S. Feeling Not Enough for Courts, Unity
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12. (C) Zebe said people in Gedo are skeptical of the
Courts because while "Islam is one," each subclan has its
own court. The Courts in Mogadishu "have no vision for the
rest of the country." There is a "spiritual force" in
Somalia behind the UIC, but that is because "people have
heard the Americans are behind the warlords. It's a
question of uniting against the Americans." Eventually,
however, the Courts will split along sub-clan fault lines,
due to the rivalry between the Haber Gedir and the Abgal
especially. He said the people of Gedo,s predominant clan,
the Marehan, do not like the TFG, but have their doubts
about the Courts too.

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Comment
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13. (C) Many of the people of Gedo appear to feel caught
between a rock and a hard place; an Ethiopian government
they characterize as willing to buy leaders and bully the
people into submission, and an Islamist movement that seems
eager for a war they do not want. The exploits of
the Islamic Courts -- opening the roadblocks, defeating the
warlords, and reopening the airport and port -- combined
with their blend of Somali nationalism and Islam, have
caught the imagination of many ethnic Somalis in the
region, even while others are worried about what the courts
will do with their new power.
RANNEBERGER