KENYA: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL OBAMA

UNCLAS NAIROBI 003500

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PHUM KCOR KE
SUBJECT: KENYA: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL OBAMA


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Welcome to Kenya, a country that stands
out among its East African neighbors as a stable, open
democracy and as a key regional partner for the United
States. The country is making a dramatic break from its past
by greatly improving respect for human rights and by
expanding democratic space in wich a variety of media and
civil society organizations thrive. With substantial
existing infrastructure, a well-educated work force and a
diverse economy, Kenya could become East Africa's engine for
economic growth. Mission advocacy and assistance programs
actively support and promote Kenya's development. As but one
example, impressive results under the President's Emergency
Program for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) include the dramatic
increase in the numbers of U.S.-supported anti-retroviral
(ART) treatment sites, contributing to a greater than
100-fold increase in the number of Kenyans on anti-retroviral
treatment since the PEPFAR scale-up began.


2. (U) These positive elements, however, are tempered by
ongoing high and low-level corruption and internal political
rivalries that have unfortunately slowed some areas of our
bilateral cooperation and Kenya's own economic development.
Kenya has yet to meet its international obligation to enact
counter-terrorism legislation, which is not considered a
priority. Years of ecological mismanagement have put Kenya
on the brink of an ecological catastrophe that will
reverberate through the economy and will impact issues as
diverse as health care and regional stability. END SUMMARY.

Terrorism: Aligning Priorities
--------------


3. (SBU) The bombing of our Embassy on August 7, 1998 and
the subsequent November 2002 terrorist attacks on an
Israeli-owned hotel and Israeli chartered aircraft within
Kenya have been linked to Al-Qaeda, which retains the ability
to operate in and around Kenya. Working with Kenya against
the threat from terrorism remains the first priority on our
bilateral agenda, and we have had some modest successes. We
have provided training to the Department of Public
Prosecutions and the Kenya Airports Authority. The U.S. Navy
Maritime Operations and Training Coastal Security Program
with the Kenyan Navy, Police, and Kenyan Wildlife Service is
the only inter-ministerial counter-terrorism effort in Kenya.
Our Anti-terrorism Assistance (ATA) office has established a
robust police training program, and a coastal security
program that promises to improve Kenya's capacity to secure
its extensive coastline, through the combined efforts of ATA,
the Kenya-U.S. Liaison Office (KUSLO),the Defense Attache's
Office (DAO),and the Economic and Political sections.
Cooperation with the Kenyan Government on this program is

excellent and should serve as a model for such multi-sectoral
projects. As a top priority, our counter-terrorism efforts
benefit from the cooperation of all Mission agencies,
including DOJ's Resident Legal Advisor, USAID, FAA, and DHS.
CJTF-HOA Civil Affairs teams have been active in Kenya since
2003, providing humanitarian assistance and supporting
development projects throughout North Eastern and Coast
Provinces.


4. (SBU) Unfortunately, on the whole, Kenya's posture in the
war on terrorism is less productive than we would like. For
most Kenyans, crime is a greater security concern than
terrorism. As a result, very few Kenyan politicians or
citizens see counter-terrorism legislation as a top priority.
Kenya has an international obligation to enact
counter-terrorism and anti-money laundering legislation in
accordance with UN conventions. The issue of
counter-terrorism legislation has become controversial in
Kenya, with elements of the press, the political class, the
human rights community, and Muslim leadership berating such
legislation as anti-Muslim. The Government of Kenya still
has not established the necessary legal tools nor organized a
joint task force of police and prosecutors, despite
significant U.S. financial support and advocacy. Military
aspects of our counter-terrorism activities, particularly
training, suffered a loss of funds due to Kenya's failure to
conclude an Article 98 agreement. Without an overarching
Kenyan counter-terrorism strategy and legal framework, our
efforts will carry on in a piecemeal fashion and will lack
the impact of a fully integrated program.

Military Cooperation Strong
--------------


5. (SBU) Despite Kenya's ratification of the Rome Treaty and
not concluding an Article 98 Agreement with the U.S. (which
caused a freeze of IMET and FMF),the military-military
relationship remains strong. Our cooperation includes
training, combined exercises, some provision of equipment, an
intelligence exchange program, and senior DOD visits. Our
strong support of the Kenyan military also includes the
African Contingency Operations Training Assistance Program
(ACOTA) which prepares Kenyan battalions for United Nations
or African Union mandated peace-keeping deployments with
training and equipment.

Political Overview: Democracy Prevails, But Room for More
-------------- --------------


6. (SBU) With a general election just over a year away,
Kenya is at a critical juncture as voters decide whether to
persevere with "reform" government, even if the government's
results to date have not lived up to the electorate's high
expectations. Following the election in 2002 of President
Mwai Kibaki's opposition NARC coalition government,
democratic and political space for Kenyans has increased
dramatically, a far cry from the torture chambers and
political imprisonments of previous administrations. With
greatly improved respect for human rights, a variety of media
and civil society organizations thrive, measuring the
performance of the government by higher standards than in the
past. Kenyans themselves demand and expect democratic
behavior from their government. This was vividly
demonstrated during the constitutional referendum of late
2005 during which voters demonstrated their ability to
(mostly peacefully) oppose a largely government-supported
initiative. It was also seen in the public outcry against
the government's attack on free media during the March 2006
raids on the Standard Media House. Other good governance
success stories are the effectiveness and independence of the
Electoral Commission of Kenya, which the Mission has assisted
through appropriate information technology, and the Kenyan
National Commission on Human Rights. Coverage of the
referendum and high-level corruption, and professional
organization of broadcast debates, have demonstrated the
growing maturity and professionalism of the media sector.
Particularly in light of public exposure of two massive
corruption scandals in early 2006, Parliament has more fully
assumed its role of checking the power of the executive
through oversight committees. The executive, however,
continues to wield considerable power over the legislature.


7. (SBU) Despite these achievements, the Kibaki
administration has come under tough scrutiny and criticism
for not having realized many of the President's campaign
promises. While notably the government has been able to
deliver free primary education, a new constitution and an
effective crackdown on corruption are pledges unfulfilled.
2005's campaigns for and against the draft constitution were
characterized more by ethnic animosities than policy debate,
and the Government used substantial incentives in its
(unsuccessful) attempts to lure voters to support the draft.
Individuals at the highest levels of government turned a deaf
ear to most accusations of corruption, closing their ranks in
an effort to protect themselves from legal action or
political fall-out. Even after public outrage at the
Standard Media raids, some government officials continue to
voice their unease with free Kenyan media (which would
benefit from improved professionalism) chastising some
outlets' irresponsibility. Similarly, some voices from State
House are calling for the independent commissions, especially
the Electoral Commission of Kenya, to come under the direct
control of the government. This would be a serious setback
to Kenya's democratization. When the constitutional debate
is revived, a key issue to be resolved will be whether the
Executive accepts a check on its powers and allows for a
prime minister with real powers.


8. (SBU) There are several long-awaited pieces of
legislation pending before Parliament of particular interest
to the United States. One, the draft Anti-Money Laundering
Bill, is required for Kenya to meet its international
obligations and to strengthen efforts against corruption,
drug trafficking, and terrorism. Also awaiting discussion in
Parliament are a bill providing for the public declaration of
assets of government officials, viewed as an anti-corruption
mechanism; a bill which will enhance the capacity of the
judiciary through increasing the number of judicial officers;
and a bill which would permit the funding of political
parties from government coffers to level the playing field
and reduce pressures to raise campaign funds through
corruption. With general elections looming in late 2007, and
much energy wasted on political wrangling, it is unlikely
that Parliament will make much progress on any of these bills.

The Economy: Corruption Holding Back Development
-------------- ---


9. (U) The Kenyan economy grew by 5.8 percent in 2005. This
modest expansion is fairly broad-based, and is built on the
resilience, resourcefulness, and improved confidence of the
private sector. Growth at this rate, however, will never
pull the vast majority of Kenyans out of poverty. Over 50
percent of Kenyans live on USD1/day, and
unemployment/under-employment is also about 50 percent.
Tourism is now the top export sector, followed by flowers,
tea and coffee. Africa is Kenya's largest export market,
followed by the EU. Kenya is the regional center for
industry and services, with Mombasa handling imports and
exports for the whole region. Accelerating growth to achieve
Kenya's potential will require continued de-regulation of
business, improved delivery of government services,
rebuilding decrepit infrastructure (especially roads),
reforming the telecommunications sector to expand services
and cut prices, the sale of failed parastatals, and improved
economic governance generally (see below).


10. (U) The Privatization Act, passed in 2005, should enable
privatizations to occur more easily and rapidly, but
implementation of the Act has yet to begin. Kenya continues
to benefit from the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA),
but exports and jobs are dropping in the face of Asian
competition, and they will likely disappear completely unless
Congress renews the waiver allowing Kenya and others to use
third country fabric to provide more time to develop local
cotton and fabric production that meets the buyers' rigorous
standards. Although rains in much of the country ended the
drought and avoided rationing of hydro-electric power,
drought conditions persist in the arid regions, and
significant portions of the population will continue to
require emergency food assistance in the coming year.


11. (U) Corruption is the greatest challenge facing the
Kenyan economy. In the first year after taking office, the
new government took some bold action, including passing
important anti-corruption legislation and removing nearly
half of the country's judges following allegations of
corruption. However, the momentum of those early actions has
been largely squandered and there have been virtually no
prosecutions of senior officials from either the former or
the current regime for corruption, despite ample evidence of
wrongdoing in both cases and mass public outcry, in
particular following the publication of reports in early 2006
detailing the extent of the rot. However, we are encouraged
that Kenya's press, civil society, Parliament, and general
public have shown that they will not suffer quietly while the
country's coffers are emptied. The revelations of corruption
scandals by an opposition MP and the press, commonly referred
to by the name of the fictitious financial corporation
involved - i.e., Anglo-Leasing - are noteworthy because they
demonstrate a more open climate for public criticism in
Kenya.


12. (SBU) Confronting corruption in the government is a high
priority for the U.S. Mission in Kenya, as our initiatives on
all fronts are frustrated by malfeasance and mismanagement.
As part of our support for Kenyan anti-corruption efforts,
the Mission helped create the Department of Public
Prosecutions' (DPP) specialized anti-corruption unit and has
supported training and other capacity building activities.
Although the Government's rhetoric has improved, corruption
remains pervasive at all levels. Failure by the Executive to
take serious action on a number of recent cases involving
breach of security and corruption allegations have seen an
increase in the number of committees taking up investigations
into corruption scandals. Parliament has also questioned the
effectiveness of the anti-corruption institutions. The
growing assertiveness of Parliament and the fact that MPs are
taking their watchdog role more seriously have alarmed the
Executive, which is now accusing Parliament of overstepping
its mandate. The Mission supports a legislative
strengthening program designed to empower key committees and
promote quality legislation.

HIV/AIDS and the President's Emergency Plan
--------------


13. (U) The President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief
achieved impressive advances in 2005, and those successes
continue in 2006. Kenya has the second largest
single-country PEPFAR program in the world. Five Mission
elements have coordinated their activities to implement
USD208 million worth of activities in the areas of
prevention, treatment and care in 2006. Thanks in part to
efforts with our Kenyan partners, the HIV prevalence rate
among 15-19 year old women declined from 7 percent to 6.7
percent. PEPFAR's impressive results include an increase in
the number of U.S.-supported anti-retroviral (ART) treatment
sites from three to nearly 200 in just over two years. In
2005, PEPFAR funding, coupled with this increased access and
focus on improving the quality of treatment with a strong
emphasis on treating children, has made possible ART for
34,913 Kenyans, an increase from our starting point of 389
individuals. By the end of 2006, we will be directly
supporting 75,000 of the anticipated 100,000 Kenyans on ART -
a 100 percent year-to-year increase. The Mission is now
actively planning for a USD321 million program for 2007.

Islam in Kenya
--------------


14. (U) The Muslim population in Kenya is estimated to be
about 15 percent, although Kenyan Muslims often claim a much
higher proportion. Concentrated in the Coast and
Northeastern Provinces, most Kenyan Muslims practice a
moderate, often Sufi-influenced Islam. A handful of Kenyan
Muslims have been radicalized, but foreign influence aimed at
such radicalization has not achieved any widespread
acceptance. Offering as evidence the lack of a university on
the coast, Muslim Kenyans feel severely marginalized, both in
terms of government and society. The Public Affairs Office
(PAO) has a multi-pronged approach to engaging the Muslim
community, including a dedicated Muslim Outreach FSN staff
member. PAO supports the general Muslim population through a
variety of community-based programs and assists Muslim
students through scholarships and education programs both in
Nairobi and at the coast. Additionally, a DOD MIST Team is
engaged in Muslim outreach on the coast through a successful
drug awareness program.

Somalia
--------------


15. (SBU) The U.S. Mission in Kenya is the focal point for
implementing U.S. policy in Somalia. The United States has
three goals in Somalia: counter-terrorism (including regional
stability); governance and democracy; and humanitarian
assistance. U.S. policy toward Somalia is designed to
support the re-establishment of a functioning central
government and address the international community's concerns
regarding terrorism. Without sustained stability in Somalia,
our anti-terrorism activities throughout the Horn of Africa
will be continuously undermined. Establishment of democratic
institutions will be critical to ensuring long-term peace and
eventual economic development. Stability will also enable us
to engage more broadly and effectively with communities
inside Somalia.


16. (SBU) Kenya took the lead, through the Inter-Governmental
Authority on Development (IGAD),in the Somali National
Reconciliation Conference that took place over 23 months in
Kenya. Since the conclusion of the conference, Kenya has
continued to support the strengthening of the Somali
Transitional Federal Government (TFG) institutions which
emerged from the conference and were established in 2004.
However, the effectiveness and very future of the TFG are in
jeopardy, particularly given the dissolution of the TFG
cabinet in early August of this year. By contrast, the
Islamic Courts Union (ICU) has taken control of Mogadishu and
is extending its influence throughout south-central Somalia.
The ICU is credited by many for having brought a measure of
security and stability to Mogadishu that has been unknown for
the past 15 years. Due to their success in providing
security and rudimentary services befitting a government
body, the ICU is enjoying fairly broad-based local support.
Some members of the ICU are moderates, but they have been
marginalized by extremists who appear firmly in control of
the ICU's militia. The perceived threat posed to the TFG by
the growing influence of the ICU prompted Ethiopian forces to
intervene to defend the TFG in July. Somali pirates
operating off the coast of Somalia have attacked cargo and
cruise ships alike, prompting U.S. military attention to the
threat posed to international shipping.
HOOVER