Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06NAIROBI3292
2006-07-31 13:06:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Nairobi
how-toVZCZCXRO5818 PP RUEHROV DE RUEHNR #3292 2121306 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 311306Z JUL 06 FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3329 INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY RHMFISS/CJTF HOA PRIORITY RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 003292
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/26/2026
TAGS: PGOV PINS PINR PTER SO
SUBJECT: AWEYS' POSSIBLE WEAKNESS
Classified By: PolCouns L. Andre, Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).
C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 003292
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/26/2026
TAGS: PGOV PINS PINR PTER SO
SUBJECT: AWEYS' POSSIBLE WEAKNESS
Classified By: PolCouns L. Andre, Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).
1. (C) In a July 26 conversation, European Commission Senior
Political Advisor on Somalia Walid Musa shared that Union of
Islamic Courts (UIC) leader Hassan Dahir Aweys is unable to
travel to Mogadishu because of disputes with clan leaders in
the city. He has likewise been unable to appoint more than a
handful of individuals to the self-proclaimed parliament for
Mogadishu, making him appear less powerful than previously
believed.
2. (C) Although apparently unable to go to Mogadishu, Aweys
has a tool in his kit that could help him weather his current
difficulties and potentially come out ahead of the
Transitional Federal Institutions (TFIs). The strongest of
these is a 400-strong youth movement known as the shabaab.
This movement has representation from the Hawiye, Rahanweyn,
and Daarood clans, although the adherents reportedly place
the interests of the movement above clan consideration.
(COMMENT: Thus, Aweys appears to be having some success in
re-creating a cross-clan entity, which could help him survive
over the long run. END COMMENT.)
3. (C) Musa expects that Aweys knows inter-clan rivalries
will emerge within the UIC and there is little he will be
able to do to prevent them. However, Aweys likely calculates
he will be able to weather any such divisions. Musa thought
it essential that the international community start engaging
directly with the clans, using these traditional structures
to establish a way forward between the TFIs and the UIC.
This would, in turn, undermine the unity of the UIC, ideally
giving the moderates the upper hand in this body's internal
power relationships.
4. (C) Musa also shared some of the personal dynamics
involved between President Yusuf and Aweys. Yusuf, having
been held hostage at one time by Aweys' supporters, still
feels a need for revenge. In addition, Musa posited that
Yusuf is not as intelligent as Aweys, and is therefore not as
able to adapt to the rapidly changing circumstances in
Somalia. While Yusuf's military career advancement came
about through pressure and support from his clan, Aweys is
believed to have earned his rank by virtue of his
intelligence and strong performance in the military academy.
HOOVER
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/26/2026
TAGS: PGOV PINS PINR PTER SO
SUBJECT: AWEYS' POSSIBLE WEAKNESS
Classified By: PolCouns L. Andre, Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).
1. (C) In a July 26 conversation, European Commission Senior
Political Advisor on Somalia Walid Musa shared that Union of
Islamic Courts (UIC) leader Hassan Dahir Aweys is unable to
travel to Mogadishu because of disputes with clan leaders in
the city. He has likewise been unable to appoint more than a
handful of individuals to the self-proclaimed parliament for
Mogadishu, making him appear less powerful than previously
believed.
2. (C) Although apparently unable to go to Mogadishu, Aweys
has a tool in his kit that could help him weather his current
difficulties and potentially come out ahead of the
Transitional Federal Institutions (TFIs). The strongest of
these is a 400-strong youth movement known as the shabaab.
This movement has representation from the Hawiye, Rahanweyn,
and Daarood clans, although the adherents reportedly place
the interests of the movement above clan consideration.
(COMMENT: Thus, Aweys appears to be having some success in
re-creating a cross-clan entity, which could help him survive
over the long run. END COMMENT.)
3. (C) Musa expects that Aweys knows inter-clan rivalries
will emerge within the UIC and there is little he will be
able to do to prevent them. However, Aweys likely calculates
he will be able to weather any such divisions. Musa thought
it essential that the international community start engaging
directly with the clans, using these traditional structures
to establish a way forward between the TFIs and the UIC.
This would, in turn, undermine the unity of the UIC, ideally
giving the moderates the upper hand in this body's internal
power relationships.
4. (C) Musa also shared some of the personal dynamics
involved between President Yusuf and Aweys. Yusuf, having
been held hostage at one time by Aweys' supporters, still
feels a need for revenge. In addition, Musa posited that
Yusuf is not as intelligent as Aweys, and is therefore not as
able to adapt to the rapidly changing circumstances in
Somalia. While Yusuf's military career advancement came
about through pressure and support from his clan, Aweys is
believed to have earned his rank by virtue of his
intelligence and strong performance in the military academy.
HOOVER