Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06NAIROBI3173
2006-07-20 14:59:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Nairobi
Cable title:  

COURTS ADVANCING ON BAIDOA? POSSIBLY NOT

Tags:  PGOV MARR PTER KISL SO 
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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3174
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 003173 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/20/2026
TAGS: PGOV MARR PTER KISL SO
SUBJECT: COURTS ADVANCING ON BAIDOA? POSSIBLY NOT

Classified By: D/PolCouns L. Peterson, Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 003173

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/20/2026
TAGS: PGOV MARR PTER KISL SO
SUBJECT: COURTS ADVANCING ON BAIDOA? POSSIBLY NOT

Classified By: D/PolCouns L. Peterson, Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Reports of an imminent Union of Islamic
Courts (UIC) attack on Baidoa appear exaggerated. Two
reports, although differing in details, link the militia
movement to Rahanweyn clan disgruntlement with the
Transitional Federal Government. The UN advises that the
Court militia has returned to the town of Bur Acaba,
approximately 80 kilometers south-east of Baidoa. The UN
further advises that 30 to 40 Ethiopian vehicles have entered
Baidoa with unspecified numbers of men and equipment. The UN
estimates that the Courts do not have sufficient force
numbers in the area to mount an attack on the government, nor
does it appear that the Ethiopian presence is intended as an
attack force. While it does not appear that an attack from
either side is imminent, these events demonstrate how quickly
events could spin out of control. They also demonstrate the
willingness of some in the Courts to probe their military
limits, a practice likely to spark a confrontation. END
SUMMARY.


2. (C) Press reports on July 19 indicated that militias
affiliated with the UIC had advanced to within 35 kilometers
of Baidoa, sparking fears that an attack on the seat of the
Transitional Federal Institutions (TFIs) was imminent.
Information from the European Commission, which on July 19
moved a Somali staff member from Baidoa to Bur Acaba,
indicates that this movement was not instigated by the
Courts, but by Rahanweyn clan leaders who have lost patience
with the manner in which the Transitional Federal Government
(TFG) is handling its affairs. Rahanweyn militias moved only
a few kilometers out of Bur Acaba in the direction of Baidoa,
making it appear that this was intended to send a signal to
TFG officials, without necessarily indicating plans to push
through to the transitional capital.


3. (C) There remain, however, elements of concern in this
movement. First are the numbers that have coalesced around
the Rahanweyn force: With 125 deserters from Baidoa, the
militia now has 450 members and 60 technicals, making it

highly mobile. In addition, two of the force commanders are
new and were very recently trained in Mogadishu by the
Courts. This raises questions about whether this movement
will remain Rahanweyn-driven or will be taken over by Court
ambitions. Nevertheless, the EC believes the Courts will
work to defuse the tensions around Bur Acaba because their
interest now is in maintaining the appearance of openness to
dialogue.


4. (C) The UN advises that the July 19 advance involved a
force led by Sheikh Muqtar Robow, which traveled as far as a
place called Daynune (30 km SE of Baidoa) to meet and offer
protection to 70 Rahanweyn defectors from the Baidoa militia,
who were being pursued by President Yusuf's forces. The
number of defectors eventually grew to 150. After retrieving
these fighters, the Court militia returned to Bur Acaba
(approximately 80 km from Baidoa. The UN does not believe
the Courts intend to attack Baidoa, in part because they
would need a much larger force to undertake such an assault.
The UN also advised that there are already Ethiopian troops
in Baidoa, but not a large enough force to attempt an attack
on the Courts' militias (30 to 40 vehicles have entered the
town). The UN security chief expressed the opinion that the
Ethiopian presence was intended only as a signal to the
Courts that they should not advance further, not as a threat
of imminent action. He considered an attack from either side
highly unlikely at this time.


5. (C) In a July 19 conversation with the Acting DCM,
Parliament Speaker Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden indicated that
reports of Court militia movements did not appear new, noting
that the Courts had controlled Bur Acaba for some time.
Sharif Hassan stated that the main aim of the Courts is to
gain the support of the Somali people, so it would not
necessarily be in their interest to advance militarily on
Baidoa. He described the Courts as being on a diplomatic
offensive. Because the Courts' delegation had waited
extensively in Khartoum to resume the dialogue, it now
appeared that the TFG was the obstacle to peace. He
emphasized his belief in the importance of dialogue with the
Courts. (NOTE: The Speaker was to depart July 22 for an
NDI-sponsored study trip to the U.S. Because of events
inside Somalia and Sharif Hassan's personal belief in the
need for dialogue, he has requested that this program be
delayed. END NOTE.)


6. (C) COMMENT: While it does not appear that an attack from

NAIROBI 00003173 002 OF 002


either side is imminent, these events demonstrate how quickly
events could spin out of control, even if only on the basis
of misinformation. Although some individuals in the Courts
continue to profess their commitment to the principles signed
in Khartoum and a continuation of the dialogue process,
others seem intent on probing the limits to see what may
spark a reaction from the TFG or the Ethiopians. Such
probing seems likely to lead to a direct confrontation at
some point. Because of the Courts' ability to appeal to
hearts and minds, and because of Somali antipathy toward
Ethiopia, we believe the Courts could ultimately emerge the
victors in a military stand-off. END COMMENT.


ROWE