Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06NAIROBI3090
2006-07-17 14:00:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Embassy Nairobi
Cable title:  

PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTIONS SET THE MOOD FOR 2007

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM KE 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0008
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNR #3090/01 1981400
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 171400Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3072
INFO RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY 8666
RUEHDR/AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM PRIORITY 4750
RUEHDJ/AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI PRIORITY 4285
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA PRIORITY 1466
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 1960
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 1939
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 003090 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/13/2026
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM KE
SUBJECT: PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTIONS SET THE MOOD FOR 2007

REF: A. NAIROBI 1600


B. NAIROBI 1157

Classified By: Political Counselor Larry Andre for reasons 1.4 (b,d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 003090

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/13/2026
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM KE
SUBJECT: PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTIONS SET THE MOOD FOR 2007

REF: A. NAIROBI 1600


B. NAIROBI 1157

Classified By: Political Counselor Larry Andre for reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On July 24, five new members of parliament
will be chosen in the largest by-election in Kenyan history.
Not only is the upcoming election significant in its size,
but also for its timing - little more than a year before the
next general election, and its location - four of the
constituencies are in Kenya's far northern region bordering
Ethiopia, an isolated area historically neglected by Nairobi.
The by-election has raised the profile of former President
Moi's continuing political influence, and stoked the debate
over the viability of the ODM alliance between main
opposition parties KANU and LDP. END SUMMARY.

NORTHERN KENYA: ISOLATED, NEGLECTED, AND INSECURE
-------------- --------------

2. (SBU) Kenyans have been anticipating the historic July 24
by-election since April 10 when a plane crashed in Marsabit
carrying the MPs for five constituencies: Nakuru Town near
Nairobi, and North Horr, Saku, Laisamis, and Moyale, in north
Kenya (ref A). Remote from the center, geographically,
ethnically, and politically, it is unusual for semi-arid,
resource-poor, underpopulated Marsabit and Moyale Districts
(which comprise the four northern constituencies) to be the
focus of so much attention. During the colonial era, the
region was largely outside British control. It was barely
administered and received only very minimal government
investment. Post-independence, the same pattern held,
resulting in a large, sparsely populated and minimally
governed expanse of territory bordering southern Ethiopia.
With little physical and administrative infrastructure, and
cultural traditions in some quarters favoring raids and
cattle rustling against ethnic rivals (including the
cross-border varitey, coming from Ethiopia),insecurity is a
serious problem in the region. Smuggling and arms
trafficking are also widespread. The five MPs killed in the
April crash were on a mission to reconcile an ongoing ethnic

conflict.

MOI'S NORTH
--------------

3. (SBU) Former President Moi is off the bench and into
active politics. In spite of their relative isolation from
Nairobi, Moi held considerable sway in the four
constituencies. Moi's influence in the area stems from his
strategy of appealing to minority populations with plum
assignments in his government for their favorite sons. North
Horr MP Bonaya Godana who was killed in the April 10 plane
crash was one such individual, having served as Moi's foreign
minister. After fading out of politics following the 2002
election, Moi has used the by-election debate to once again
exert his political muscle in backing the KANU candidates,
and at the same time throw sand at LDP. Shortly after the
April plane crash, Moi took a tour of the region,
deliberately traveling by road to emphasize the deplorable
physical infrastructure, promising to raise the area's
development needs with President Kibaki. Acknowledging
KANU's strength in this part of Kenya (all four MPs who died
were KANU, although some had started working with the
government),on July 6 LDP announced "in the spirit of ODM"
it would not enter any candidates in the four northern races.
Moi seized on the decision, highlighting it as a sign of
weakness - further to his point that KANU should go it alone,
out from under the ODM umbrella, in the 2007 general
election. (NOTE: LDP's decision to back KANU in the north,
and the likely sympathy vote for the party of the dead MPs
potentially tilts the balance in KANU's favor. However,
NARC-Kenya, KANU's principal rival in these by-elections, has
been accused of misusing government resources - such as
vehicles and civil servants - to advance its campaign, which
could bring some votes its way. END NOTE.)

MIXED NAKURU
--------------

4. (SBU) Although more mundane than the remote north, Nakuru
is also a contest to watch. Capital of Rift Valley Province
(and slowly losing its strong association with the Kalenjin
populace),bordering predominantly-Kikuyu Central Province,
and a short drive from Nairobi, Nakuru is a thoroughly mixed
community and will be hotly contested. All of the party
figureheads have made their way through Nakuru campaigning
hard for their parties' candidates. Of the five, the Nakuru
race is where pro-government NARC-Kenya stands the best
chance of a debut victory. In addition, this contest is the
first post-ODM parliamentary vote in which KANU and LDP
candidates will face off. During the Kasipul-Kabondo by
election (ref B) an LDP stronghold constituency, KANU
deferred to LDP and did not enter a candidate, while both
parties (mostly LDP) praised ODM cooperation. The three-way
race and ethnic mix make Nakuru anyone's seat to take. The
Kikuyu vote will be split between KANU and NARC-Kenya (a
reincarnation of Kibaki's NARC, although he has not formally
committed to it). Those Kalenjin who support William Ruto
(Kalenjin Ruto is the only KANU leader to adamantly support
the ODM alliance) are likely to vote LDP, while the rest will
stick with KANU.

ANOTHER TOUGH JOB FOR THE ELECTORAL COMMISSION
-------------- -

5. (SBU) The Electoral Commission of Kenya, which earned
great respect in the 2002 general elections and the 2005
constitutional referendum for its non-partisan, principled
performance and smooth logistical implementation, has its
work cut out for it organizing elections under the difficult
conditions of northern Kenya. The ECK notes that it has
hired aircraft to deliver election materials, will have
additional security throughout the constituencies, and will
even employ mobile polling stations locating voters in three
of the four northern voting areas. Nonetheless, in an area
characterized by insecurity and a highly mobile, sparse
population, gathering high voter turnout will be a challenge.
ECK Chairman Samuel Kivuitu expressed to members of donor
missions his concerns of intimidation in all five
constituencies. In north Kenya, the specter of intimidation
is heightened by the great number of arms in civilian hands,
particularly those of the chiefs. Kivuitu suspects chiefs,
aided by their weapons, will attempt to influence voters.


6. (C) COMMENT: LDP's concession to KANU is less likely a
move to keep the ODM alliance alive than it is rational
political calculation. Stepping aside in the name of
cooperation is a face-saving move, but has only fueled Moi's
anti-ODM tirade. The north is a tough first contest for the
infant NARC-Kenya, and a critical test of its strategy to
define itself as a national (not tribal/regional) party.
Given the importance of this vote, we plan to contribute as
many observers as possible to a joint donor observer mission,
although we are limited by the very remote location of the
four northern constituencies. END COMMENT.

ROWE