Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06NAIROBI2755
2006-06-23 10:19:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Nairobi
Cable title:  

KENYA: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL DREIER

Tags:  PREL PGOV PTER PHUM KE 
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VZCZCXYZ0007
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNR #2755/01 1741019
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 231019Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2658
UNCLAS NAIROBI 002755 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

H FOR MATTHEW RENOLDS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PHUM KE
SUBJECT: KENYA: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL DREIER

UNCLAS NAIROBI 002755

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

H FOR MATTHEW RENOLDS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PHUM KE
SUBJECT: KENYA: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL DREIER


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Welcome to Kenya, a country that stands
out among African nations as a country of special interest to
the United States. With substantial existing infrastructure,
a well-educated work force and a diverse economy, Kenya could
become East Africa's engine for economic growth. In a test
of Kenya's electoral maturity, a first-ever constitutional
referendum was conducted in November 2005, the results of
which demonstrated that voters could freely express their
opposition to a government initiative. These positive
elements, however, are tempered by ongoing high-level
corruption and internal political rivalries that have
dramatically slowed some areas of our bilateral cooperation
and Kenya's own economic development. Years of ecological
mismanagement have put Kenya on the brink of an ecological
catastrophe that will reverberate through the economy and
will impact issues as diverse as health care and regional
stability.


2. (U) In spite of a sense of gloom on the macro level, there
have been significant advances in some sectors. Impressive
results under the President's Emergency Program for AIDS
Relief (PEPFAR) include increasing the numbers of
U.S.-supported anti-retroviral (ART) treatment sites from
three to over 180 in under two years, improving the quality
of treatment, and achieving a 100-fold increase in the number
of Kenyans on ART in the 24 months since the PEPFAR scale-up
began. The Government of Kenya progressed in the area of
economic reform, passing two critical reform bills central to
our economic advocacy. Our environmental activities,
conducted in collaboration with other donors, have increased
the number of Kenyans using sustainable land management
practices. Our strong support of Kenya's long-standing
partnership with the African Contingency Operations Training
Assistance Program (ACOTA) will continue to enhance Kenya's
capacity to contribute to multi-national peace support
missions in Africa. END SUMMARY.

--------------
Terrorism
--------------


3. (SBU) Terrorism looms largest on our bilateral agenda with
the Government of Kenya. The bombing of our Embassy on
August 7, 1998 and the subsequent November 2002 terrorist

attacks on an Israeli-owned hotel and Israeli chartered
aircraft within Kenya have been linked to Al-Qaeda, which
retains the ability to operate in and around Kenya. Kenya's
posture in the war on terrorism is, unfortunately, not as
favorable as in the past. The Government of Kenya still has
not established the necessary legal tools nor organized a
joint task force of police and prosecutors, despite
significant U.S. financial support. Nevertheless, we have
had some modest successes. We have provided training to the
Department of Public Prosecutions and airport security staff.
We have established a coastal security program, combining
the efforts of RSO (DS/ATA),KUSLO, DAO, and the Economic and
Political sections, that promises to improve Kenya's capacity
to secure its extensive coastline. Cooperation within the
Mission and with the Kenyan Government on this program is
excellent and should serve as a model for such multi-sectoral
projects. However, without an overarching Kenyan
counter-terrorism strategy and legal framework, our efforts
will carry on in a piecemeal fashion and will lack the impact
of a fully integrated program. Military aspects of our
counter-terrorism activities, particularly training, suffered
a loss of funds due to Kenya's failure to conclude an Article
98 agreement. CJTF-HOA Civil Affairs teams
have been active in Kenya since 2003, providing humanitarian
assistance and supporting development projects throughout
North Eastern Kenya and Coast province.

--------------
Political Overview
--------------


4. (U) Kenya's democratic development continued to falter in

2005. Campaigns for and against the draft constitution
descended into ethnic animosities, and the Government used
substantial incentives in its (unsuccessful) attempts to lure
voters to support the draft. The brightest spot in the
referendum process was the affirmation of the independence
and effectiveness of the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK),
but this body is likely to come under increasing pressure in
the run-up to the 2007 elections. Coverage of the referendum
and high-level corruption, and professional organization of
broadcast debates, demonstrated the growing maturity and
professionalism of the media sector. Individuals at the
highest levels of government turned a deaf ear to most
accusations of corruption, closing their ranks in an effort
to protect themselves from legal action or political
fall-out.

5. (SBU) Media freedom in the country suffered a set-back
when the police carried out a midnight raid the Standard
Media House in March 2006 citing national security concerns,
destroying and confiscating property and setting the day's
newsprint ablaze. Also troubling for Kenyans is the still
unfolding mystery of two so-called "Armenian" brothers whose
purpose for being in the country is unclear but widely
thought to be illegal. Following a serious security breach
in early June 2006 involving the brothers at Kenya's main
airport, it has been alleged that the two are connected to
and supported by politically powerful individuals. The
subsequent power struggle ensuing between the Executive and
Parliament to control inquiry into the mystery surrounding
the pair amply demonstrates the limitations the Executive
continues to place on the Legislature's powers.

--------------
Economic Overview
--------------


6. (U) The Kenyan economy grew by 5.8 percent in 2005. This
modest expansion is fairly broad-based, and is built on the
resilience, resourcefulness, and improved confidence of the
private sector. Growth at this rate, however, will never
pull the vast majority of Kenyans out of poverty. To realize
its economic potential, Kenya will need to rebuild the
country's decrepit infrastructure, reform the
telecommunications sector, off-load failed parastatals,
deregulate the economy, and improve economic governance
generally (see below). The Privatization Act, passed in
2005, should enable privatization's to occur more easily and
rapidly, but implementation of the Act has yet to begin.
Kenya continues to benefit from the Africa Growth and
Opportunity Act (AGOA),but must diversify out of the apparel
industry if it hopes to avoid losing out to its global
competitors.


7. (U) Kenya has been impacted by on-going drought
conditions, and significant portions of the population will
likely require emergency food assistance in the coming year,
as they did in 2005.

--------------
Corruption
--------------


8. (U) Corruption is the greatest challenge facing the Kenyan
economy. In the first year after taking office, the new
government took some bold action, including passing state of
the art anti-corruption legislation and removing nearly half
of the country's judges following allegations of corruption.
However, the momentum of those early actions has been largely
squandered and there have been virtually no prosecutions of
senior officials from either the former or the current regime
for corruption, despite ample evidence of wrongdoing in both
cases and mass public outcry, in particular following the
publication of reports in early 2006 detailing the extent of
the rot.


9. (SBU) Failure by the Executive to take serious action on a
number of recent cases involving breach of security and
corruption allegations have seen an increase in the number of
committees taking up investigations into corruption scandals.
Parliament has also questioned the effectiveness of the
anti-corruption institutions, and several committee chairs
expressed interest in conducting a workshop where all
anti-corruption institutions, key executive representatives,
and MPs will meet to review their performance and discuss the
challenges they face in their work. The growing
assertiveness of Parliament and the fact that MPs are taking
their watchdog role more seriously have alarmed the
Executive, which is now accusing Parliament of overstepping
its mandate.


10. (SBU) Confronting corruption in the government is a high
priority for the U.S. Mission in Kenya, as our initiatives on
all fronts are frustrated by malfeasance and mismanagement.
Although the Government's rhetoric has improved, corruption
remains pervasive at all levels. Government reform efforts
have been disappointing, but we are encouraged that Kenya's
press, civil society, Parliament, and general public have
shown that they will not suffer quietly while the country's
coffers are emptied. Recent corruption scandals (commonly
referred to by the name of the fictitious financial
corporation involved - i.e., Anglo-Leasing) are noteworthy
not only because they signify the continuation of high-level
corruption within the current regime, but also because their
revelation (by an opposition MP and the press) signifies a
more open climate for public criticism in Kenya.

--------------
Environment: Amboseli
--------------


11. (SBU) On September 28, 2005, the Minister for Tourism and
Wildlife published a legal notice, which changed the status
of Amboseli National Park to a National Reserve. This meant
that the management of the park would be removed from the
Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS) and placed under the authority
of Kajiado County Council. The move is a controversial one,
coming at a time when it could only be construed as a
desperate political maneuver to gain support for the proposed
constitution, and may have jeopardized the KWS's revenue base
and its momentum for effective reform. One of the most
pressing worries concerning the change in control over
Amboseli's management, is whether the Council will be able to
enforce the current practice of minimal livestock grazing
within the park. The Amboseli move is a dangerous
precedent, possibly clearing the way for more of the kind of
land grabbing and gifting that characterized the economically
disastrous Moi era. If the Ministry of Tourism and Wildlife
can unilaterally degazette a park, it, or other ministries,
could claim the authority to create new public land
designations without the input of local communities or wider
stakeholders and without observing the rule of law.


12. (U) In October 2005, a group of Kenyan civil society and
tourism associations successfully applied for and were
granted a Court Injunction stopping the County Council and
the Government of Kenya from acting on Legal Notice 120 until
the case is determined by the High Court. The first full
proper Hearing will be held in the High Court on July 14,
2006 to determine whether the Government acted illegally in
moving to degazette the Park in the way it did. In the
interim, KWS remains in full management control of the park.

--------------
HIV/AIDS and the President's Emergency Plan
--------------


13. (U) The President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief
achieved impressive advances in 2005. Kenya this year had
the largest single-country PEPFAR program in the world. Five
Mission elements coordinated their activities to implement
nearly USD141 million worth of activities in the areas of
prevention, treatment and care in 2005. Thanks in part to
our efforts with our Kenyan partners, the HIV prevalence rate
among 15-19 year old women declined from 7 percent to 6.7
percent. PEPFAR funding made possible anti-retroviral
treatment (ART) for 34,913 Kenyans, an increase from our
starting point of 389 individuals. This translates into 72
more Kenyans starting ART every day. The Mission is
implementing a USD208 million PEPFAR program for 2006 and is
actively planning a USD324 million program for 2007.

--------------
Somalia
--------------


14. (U) Kenya took the lead, through the Inter-Governmental
Authority on Development (IGAD),in the Somali National
Reconciliation Conference that took place over 23 months in
Kenya. Since the conclusion of this conference, Kenya has
remained active in supporting the strengthening of the
institutions which emerged from the conference. A Somali
Transitional Federal Assembly, President, and Government have
been established and in the past three months have begun work
in earnest, but remain extremely fragile. A union of Islamic
courts has taken control of Mogadishu. Many members of this
union are moderates, but a handful of courts that have been
driving the agenda are linked to known extremists. Somali
pirates operating off coast of Somalia have attacked cargo
and cruise ships alike, prompting U.S. military attention to
the threat posed to international shipping.


15. (U) Without sustained stability in Somalia, our
anti-terrorism activities throughout the Horn of Africa will
be continuously undermined. Establishment of democratic
institutions will be critical to ensuring long-term peace and
eventual economic development. Stability will also enable us
to engage more broadly and effectively with communities
inside Somalia.



ROWE