GETTING TO AN INTERAGENCY 3D APPROACH TO

UNCLAS NAIROBI 002744

SIPDIS

AIDAC

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AFR/AA FOR LPIERSON
AFR/EA FOR KNELSON, JBORNS
DCHA/AA FOR MHESS AND WGARVELINK
DCHA/OMA FOR TBALTAZAR; CMM FOR JDERLETH, EKVITASHVILI
DCHA/FFP FOR JDWORKEN
DCHA/OTI FOR RJENKINS
ADDIS ABABA FOR BHAMMINK, PASS TO KSULLIVAN
DAR ES SALAAM FOR MLATOUR
DJIBOUTI FOR JSCHULMAN, PASS TO AMB. RAGSDALE, CPATCH,
KAMPALA FOR MELLIS
KHARTOUM FOR EWHITAKER
SANAA FOR MSARHAN
STATE S/CT VPALMER
STATE S/CT MHAWTHORNE

E.O.12958: N/A
TAGS: SECDEF OSD SOLIC
SUBJECT: GETTING TO AN INTERAGENCY 3D APPROACH TO
COMBAT TERRORISM IN THE HORN OF AFRICA

REF : A) 05 Nairobi 00137; B) Nairobi 01263; C) Nairobi

01653

SUMMARY

1.(U) USAID/East Africa organized a meeting (June 5 to
June 7) to advance an interagency planning framework to
counter terrorism and extremism in the Horn of Africa
(HOA). The participants represented all the three ?Ds?
of the 2006 National Security Strategy? Diplomacy,
Development and Defense. Attendees included staff from
the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Ethiopia, USAID Kenya,
Ethiopia and East Africa (including staff from the
Limited Presence Countries/Somalia),USAID/DCHA/OMA,
senior planning staff from Combined Joint Task Force-
Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA) and the Office of the
Secretary of Defense/Stability Operations and Low

SIPDIS
Intensity Conflict (OSD/SOLIC). This meeting was a
follow-up to a 3D meeting hosted by CJTF-HOA at Camp
Lemonier military base in Djibouti (Reftel B).

2.(U) The three day meeting was a positive step
forward for further coordination of the 3D strategies
for the region and combating terrorism in general.
Participants agreed to develop a joint planning
framework, mechanisms for coordination, and a
monitoring process. Adopting an identified set of
factors that leaves the HOA vulnerable to extremism
(Reftel B),participants targeted specific strategic
geographical areas for further analysis and program
development. Another meeting will be held within two
months. Improved field-level collaboration, such as
this meeting, can serve as a model to enhance
intergovernmental collaboration in areas that are
unstable or vulnerable to extremism.

3.(U) This is an Action Cable see para 17.


INTRODUCTION


4.(SBU) USAID/East Africa Mission Director, Dr. Andrew
Sisson, opened the meeting by presenting an
unclassified brief of the recent regional Chiefs of

SIPDIS
Mission (COM) meeting in Nairobi on counter-terrorism
to help guide the discussions. He reported that the
COM meeting concluded there was a terrorist threat in
the region largely emanating from Somalia, as it is
widely recognized that Al Qaeda is present but
supported by other actors. A regional approach to
combat terrorism is necessary and should include the
objectives of denying safe havens for terrorists and
addressing the underlying social and economic
conditions that foster extremism.

5.(U) In order to efficiently and effectively employ
USG resources to counter the threat in the region, Dr.
Sisson stressed the need to build knowledge capital and
intellectual leadership and maintain real time
knowledge capital in order to respond to issues such
as: where do we focus, what are the underlying
conditions, what end-state do we desire, how do we
monitor progress, who do we invest in, and who do we
partner with. Sisson strongly emphasized that any work
from this group must come under the leadership of the

State Department in the region.

6.(U) Jim Derleth from USAID/DCHA/OMA summarized
progress in Washington since the meeting at Camp
Lemonier in late February (Reftel B). He stated that
high-level support in Washington for 3D collaboration
is evident in critical aspects of the National Security
Strategy and National Strategy for Combating Terrorism
and further exemplified by Congress' passage of Section
1207 of the FY06 National Defense Authorization Act,
which provides DoD the authority to transfer funding to
civilian agencies for reconstruction and stabilization
assistance. USAID's Office of Military Affairs is
leading joint USAID-DOD civil affairs training
exercises to build intellectual capacity and
interagency understanding while enhancing operational
flexibility and impact in Afghanistan and Iraq.

7.(U) Embassy and USAID teams representing Kenya and
Ethiopia identified mitigation of the terrorism threat
as a high priority and discussed their progress in
developing activities to combat this threat. The teams
realize that the process to date has not targeted
development assistance effectively at populations
vulnerable to extremism in key geographic areas.
Collaboration with CJTF-HOA is providing tangible
results. USAID/Ethiopia has drafted an innovative MOU
with CJTF-HOA to address key aspects of program
collaboration.


THE SHINN CRITERIA FOR COMBATING TERRORISM


8.(U) Results of the USAID-solicited counter-terrorism
study, "Understanding and Responding to Extremism,
Instability, and Terrorism in Yemen, East Africa, and
the Horn of Africa (YEAH)," by former US Ambassador
David Shinn were presented. The presentation provided
a recap of the study, criteria for identifying
vulnerable areas, indicators for measuring success, and
lessons learned from the Trans Sahel Counter-Terrorism
Assessment. See Reftel B (para 5) for brief
description of the presentation. A copy of this
presentation is available from USAID/East Africa.

9.(U) The Shinn report identified the following six
main factors that leave the region vulnerable to
extremism:
-- Porous borders
-- Fundamentalist religious ideology and extremist
external influences
-- Endemic poverty
-- Political marginalization and economic and social
alienation
-- High levels of corruption
-- Poor governance
-- Opposition to USG policy (added by the
participants)

10.(U) The participants agreed to use these criteria,
along with the seventh added at the meeting, to
identify key geographic areas for targeting interagency
collaboration, activities, and measurements of
progress. Based on the Shinn criteria, Missions will
also continue/expand/modify programs that are targeting

key vulnerable populations such as the Pastoralist
Livelihoods Initiative in Ethiopia that focuses on the
Somali region and several of USAID/Kenya's activities
in the North Eastern Province including investments in
health and education sectors.


IDENTIFYING KEY VULNERABLE AREAS AND NEEDS

11.(SBU) Employing the Shinn criteria, participants
identified the following areas as vulnerable to
extremism and, therefore, focal points for 3D planning
and program development/expansion (detailed notes of
these discussions are available from USAID/EA):

Kenya:
-- Slums in Nairobi especially Eastleigh;
-- North Eastern Province (Mandera, Garissa, Wajir and
Ijara Districts, particularly urban centers);
-- Coast (Mombasa, Malindi, and Lamu and other areas
along the coast and Kenya-Somalia border);
-- Isiolo;
-- Nairobi-Mombasa highway.

Ethiopia: The discussions focused largely on the Somali
region bordering Kenya and Somalia.
-- Dollo;
-- Ogaden (Gode and Jijiga);
-- Harar;
-- Dire Dawa; and
-- Urban areas, including Addis Ababa and Jijiga.

12.(SBU) Somalia was discussed at length but given the
current fluid situation in Somalia, further guidance
from Washington is necessary before areas of strategic
focus can be identified. There was consensus that
Somalia remains the epicenter of the threat but all
3D's seek clarity of direction from Washington and
would require additional resources and authority to be
able to proceed with planning. In this regard, a
recent cable (Reftel C) prioritized programming options
for increased engagement, including human and financial
resources necessary to implement increased engagement.

13.(SBU) Despite ongoing activities, participants
acknowledged that serious gaps in understanding the
specific extremist threats related to international
terrorism inhibit targeted programming in many of the
areas identified as critical.


KEY CONCLUSIONS OF MEETING AND NEXT STEPS

14.(U) The above exercise led to the recognition of
gaps in information and development program focus.
Next steps include creating an interagency assessment
of target areas to include risk of the extremism
threat, programs to mitigate the risk and indicators to
measure progress. In addition, participants also
understood that despite the fact that this meeting was
a significant step forward in working collaboratively,
there was much more needed on developing interagency
collaboration. There was a general agreement over the
next three to four months to develop and finalize a
planning framework and coordinating mechanisms that
incorporate all 3 Ds. An example would be to develop a

regional strategy drawing from bilateral strategies and
draft a regional MOU coordinated by USAID/East Africa
and CJTF-HOA with guidance from DOS/AF/E and affected
Embassies. Bilateral MOUs are either in place or are
in the process of being negotiated and would serve to
inform the regional MOU. This strategy would include
developing a 3D monitoring and evaluation plan
following focused assessments using the Shinn criteria
to develop regional and area specific programs. In
addition, all agreed to ensure continuity in spite of
staff rotating out of the area. Finally, participants
highlighted a principle of engagement among the 3Ds -
to strengthen African capacity to manage and respond to
instability and extremism.


TIMELINE FOR DELIVERABLES AND WAY FORWARD


15.(U) The participants agreed to move forward with
priority on improved coordination and integrated
planning, recognizing that strategies and programs
should be coordinated and complementary on three
levels: 1) Among the 3Ds elements; 2) Regional and Bi-
lateral; and 3) USG and African institutions (host
nation governments and regional organizations).

16.(U) Increasing interagency liaisons, personnel
exchanges, and cross-training will greatly assist in
coordination and improved planning and programming. The
way ahead detailed below can be achieved through 1)
strengthened country teams and 2) meeting as a regional
3D body every six weeks. The next regional meeting is
planned for late July/early August to ensure positive
momentum.

17.(U) The list of actions includes:
a.Develop and agree upon a vision for an end-state for
the region. To be developed at the next meeting in
late July/early August and coordinated by USAID/East
Africa.
b.Discuss current programs and activities to develop an
understanding of how these activities are mitigating
g
the threat of extremism and define gaps in
programming and information. To be
presented/prepared in draft form by each bilateral
mission at the next meeting in late July/early
August.
c.Develop a data collection plan to assess assumptions,
define needs, fill gaps in knowledge, and support a
monitoring and evaluation plan. To be accomplished
by late July/early August. An interagency team
comprised of bi-lateral and regional staff from the
3D entities in the region will be responsible for the
success of this task.
d.Develop a structure to ensure continued information
flow (as identified in the collection plan). To be
finalized by October 30th.
e.Identify roadblocks and possible solutions. This
will be an ongoing process.
f.Finalize a structure for ongoing planning
coordination and integration with the end goal of
developing an Interagency Regional Operational Plan
to support coordinated bi-lateral plans such as
Mission Performance Plans, Country Operational Plans,

ns,
and Theater Security Cooperation Plans. This step
would include the development of an iterative
planning process building on the above listed
elements to ensure open communication and flexibility
in operations. To be finalized by October 30th.
USAID/East Africa will coordinate this effort with
guidance from DOS/AF/E and the bilateral missions and
embassies.

18.(U) While representation from Washington is vital at
regional meetings, representatives from USAID/East
Africa and CJTF-HOA will be identified as the key
points of contact and liaison between Washington and
the regional and bi-lateral field missions. A State
point of contact and liaison still needs to be
identified as State does not have a regional entity in
the field.

19.(U) CJTF-HOA will continue to coordinate its country
plans with USAID and Embassies. USAID Missions will
coordinate their country operational plans with
Embassies and CJTF-HOA elements. Embassies, in turn,
will guide overall planning as indicated by S/F
guidance forthcoming on COPs. BELLAMY