JOWHAR FALLS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 002618

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/14/2026
TAGS: PINS PGOV PREL MARR SO
SUBJECT: JOWHAR FALLS

Classified By: Deputy PolCouns L. Peterson, Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (U) Action request - para 9.


2. (C) SUMMARY: The town of Jowhar came under Islamic Court
Union (ICU) control the afternoon of June 14. The UN
received direct assistance from known extremist Aden Hashi
Ayrow to protect the UN compound in Jowhar, an incident that
makes it appear that Ayrow is an important player to be
reckoned with. The town of Baidoa (seat of the Transitional
Federal Institutions - TFIs) continues to experience
instability, but this may not be connected to the actions of
the ICU elsewhere in the country. The UN has reports that an
Ethiopian brigade positioned along the Somali border has been
reinforced with armor and helicopters, sparking fears about
an Ethiopian incursion to Somalia. Such a move could lead to
greatly expanded conflict and could ultimately cause the TFIs
to fail. In this light, we advise a high-level call to
Ethiopia to dissuade movement of troops into Somalia. END
SUMMARY.


3. (C) As of approximately 1300 local time, the town of
Jowhar, north-east of Mogadishu, has come under the control
of Islamic court militia. Warlords Mohamed Qanyare Affrah
and Issa Botan Alin fled Jowhar for the town of El Bur prior
to the takeover. Jowhar warlord Mohamed Dheere remains in
Addis Ababa.


4. (C) The UN has received regular updates on events on the
ground in Jowhar from their Somali staff, who have been
sheltering in the UNICEF compound there. The UN obtained
assurances of security for the compound from Sheikh
Inda'adde, but these assurances were not respected by the
commander on the ground. Subsequent contacts put the UN in
direct contact with Aden Hashi Ayrow, who went himself to the
compound, removed the militia, and placed a technical on site
to protect the compound.


5. (C) The UN has reports of a brigade positioned on the
border between the Shebelle and Jubba rivers. These reports
indicate that the brigade was reinforced with a squadron of
armor and MI-24 Hind B helicopters. (The UN's Joe Gordon
notes that this reinforcement re-creates the initial stages
of a 1996 Ethiopian incursion to Somalia.)


6. (C) The town of Baidoa (the seat of the TFIs) continues to
experience instability, but it is unclear whether this is
connected to the Islamic courts or is a continuation of
ongoing inter-militia problems there. The town was on alert
the evening of June 13 because 25 technicals from the courts
were advancing toward Baidoa. However, it appears the
technicals were advancing to the town of Bur Acaba in search
of Qanyare and Botan (who, as noted above, seem to have gone
in quite a different direction).


7. (C) Unlike Mogadishu, Jowhar has no existing court for the
ICU to tap into. They will likely attempt to establish a new
court, but it is unclear at this time with what individuals
and clan they will seek to ally themselves. The fall of
Jowhar is a major blow to the Transitional Federal Government
because the ICU has proven that it can not only block the
TFIs' entry to Mogadishu, but can take over a temporary seat
of government and potentially expand its reach elsewhere in
Somalia.


8. (C) COMMENT: Ayrow has kept a low profile in the ICU's
public statements, which may be a calculated move to present
a face of moderation to the outside world. His direct
involvement in protecting a UN entity is likely an equally
calculated move to make Ayrow specifically more palatable to
the international community. While all have been watching
for signs that the moderates among the courts may have
influence within the ICU, this one action highlights Ayrow's
military strength. Most Somalia observers will not be
fooled, but we must be on guard for those who are willing to
argue that this is now a kinder, gentler Ayrow. END COMMENT.


9. (C) ACTION REQUEST: Ethiopia's reported actions are
unhelpful, as they raise the potential for expanded combat in
Somalia and potentially the complete dissolution of the TFIs.
Dheere's mysterious extended sojourn in Ethiopia,
particularly as his town was being set upon, raises concerns
within the international community about what sort of plans
have been hatched. Many in Somalia will also believe that
Ethiopia's actions have been directed by the U.S. (a myth
firmly believed by a segment of the Somali population.) We
advise high-level communication with Ethiopia to urge that

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forces not cross the border. END ACTION REQUEST.
BELLAMY