VIOLENCE IN MOGADISHU EXACERBATES

UNCLAS NAIROBI 002594

SIPDIS

AIDAC

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/E, EPRATT
USAID/W FOR AA/DCHA, WGARVELINK, LROGERS
DCHA/OFDA FOR GGOTTLIEB, PMORRIS, CGOTTSCHALK,
KCHANNELL
DCHA/FFP FOR JDWORKEN, PMOHAN, DNELSON
AFR/EA FOR JBORNS, KNELSON
USUN FOR EMALY
ADDIS ABABA FOR JAUGSBURGER
BRUSSELS FOR PLERNER
ROME FOR FODAG
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH
NSC FOR TSHORTLEY

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID SO

SUBJECT: VIOLENCE IN MOGADISHU EXACERBATES
HUMANITARIAN CRISIS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOMALIA

Summary


1. In May 2006, an ongoing low-intensity conflict
between warlords and factions aligned with the Islamic
courts in the Somali capital of Mogadishu escalated
into large-scale violence throughout the city. On June
5, the Islamic Court Union (ICU) claimed control of
Mogadishu, with most of the warlords reportedly fleeing
to neighboring areas. The security situation in
Mogadishu remains precarious and aid agencies are
concerned that the violence threatens to spread to
neighboring towns. As the situation continues to
evolve, relief organizations are providing urgently
needed emergency assistance to residents already
reeling from the combined effects of drought, food
insecurity, and political instability. USAID/OFDA
staff are actively engaging with UN and NGO partners to
monitor conditions and support humanitarian efforts.
End Summary.

Background


2. Following the collapse of the Siad Barre government
in 1991, a system of sharia-based Islamic courts
emerged as the main judicial system in Mogadishu.
Funded through fees paid by litigants and international
Islamic charities, the Islamic courts began to offer
other services, including education, health care, and
law enforcement. Bringing some stability to Mogadishu,
the courts gained support among some local businesses
and residents over time. In 1999, supporters of the
Islamic courts united to form the Islamic Court Union
(ICU). However, as the ICU began to assert legal
authority, it came into conflict with powerful warlords
who had controlled most of the city since 19991.


3. Armed clashes began to break out between the two
factions and in February 2006, a group of Mogadishu
warlords formed the Alliance for the Restoration of
Peace and Counter-Terrorism (ARPCT),in reaction to the
growing power of the ICU. The ARPCT is an alliance of
businessmen and warlords, four of whom were ministers
in the transitional federal government (TFG) of
Somalia. In May, the sporadic clashes between the ICU
and ARPCT escalated and the fighting expanded to new
areas of the city.


4. On June 5, the ICU claimed control of Mogadishu,
defeating the ARPCT, which fled the city north to
Jowhar. On June 6, the ICU stated that they were in
control of areas up to 100 km from Mogadishu.
Territory reportedly under the ICU's control includes
the important town of Balaad. Approximately 50 km from
Mogadishu, Balaad is on the main access and trade route
to Somalia's northern and central regions. According
to media reports, the ICU has control of much of the
weaponry in the region, which makes a resurgence by the
warlords difficult without external support.


5. As a result of the violence, OCHA reports that
residents of Mogadishu have fled to nearly towns,
including Jowhar and Balaad. However, on June 7, media
sources reported that residents of Jowhar who were
able, were fleeing the town or arming themselves in
anticipation of the conflict spreading to the area.
According to the UN Department of Safety and Security,
as of June 7, the remnants of the ARPCT's militia were
positioned approximately 6 km outside of town off the
main Mogadishu road while the ICU militia were reported
to be 18 km outside of Jowhar.



6. The only other significant authority in central
Somalia is the TFG. Formed in Kenya in 2004, the TFG
Parliament met in Somalia for the first time on
February 26, and is presently based in Baidoa, 250 km
north of Mogadishu. With the loss of the ARPCT's
control of Mogadishu, the four warlords who were
ministers in the TFG were expelled from their cabinet
posts. Interim Prime Minister Ali Mohammed Ghedi has
stated an interest in meeting with ICU leaders. On
June 12, the TFG-appointed Mayor of Mogadishu traveled
to Nairobi to meet with a broad range of aid
organizations and to appeal for international
assistance in response to the situation.

Impact on Humanitarian Situation


7. Although figures cannot be verified, the UN Office
for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)
estimates that clashes between the ICU and ARPCT have
led to more than 330 deaths, 1,700 people injured, and
18,000 people becoming internally displaced since
January. As the violence escalated in May and June,
fighting expanded from the northern part of the city to
southern and eastern areas, further limiting residents'
options to escape hostilities.


8. Of particular concern are the 250,000 conflict-
affected internally displaced persons (IDPs)
concentrated in southern Mogadishu since the early
1990s. Primarily members of minority groups that
perform menial jobs, these IDPs lack the traditional
clan support available to other residents of the city.
Additionally, intermittent closure of roads from
Mogadishu to the southern regions as a result of the
violence has disrupted trade links and the import of
food from the Shabelle Valley into the city. IDPs
normally buy fruits and vegetables from the Shabelle
Valley to sell in Mogadishu and this livelihood
activity has been curtailed.


9. The USAID-supported Famine Early Warning System
Network (FEWS NET) reports that the Balaad-Jowhar-
Hiraan road was also closed during the fighting,
cutting off the main route between Mogadishu and the
central regions and delaying transport of commodities.
In addition, there are numerous militia checkpoints
along this road and FEWS NET reports militia groups
looting goods transported in and out of the city. With
the flow of goods disrupted, cereal prices in the areas
outside Mogadishu have reached 200 percent of the
normal level for this time of year, according to FEWS
NET/Somalia.


10. On May 29, armed militia believed to be part of
the ARPCT took over Keysaney Hospital in northern
Mogadishu, which is supported by the International
Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and the Somali Red
Crescent Society (SRCS),causing the evacuation of
patients and severely restricting medical services.
Keysaney is one of only two hospitals in Mogadishu
providing free services, and one of three hospitals
offering surgical services for war wounded. The
occupation has been condemned by the UN Under Secretary
General for Humanitarian Affairs as a violation of
humanitarian law. As of June 8, armed militia continue
to occupy Keysaney, but services have resumed.


11. Presently, the measles vaccination campaign
scheduled to take place in Mogadishu has been suspended

until the situation is calmer. UNICEF reports that the
measles campaigns outside of Mogadishu are on schedule.
In Lower Shabelle, which is hosting a number of IDPs
from Mogadishu, the measles campaign began on May 29.
The polio campaign in Mogadishu commenced on June 11 as
adequate supplies are already in the city.

Contingency Planning by Aid Agencies in Mogadishu


12. Agencies working in Mogadishu include Action Contre
la Faim (ACF),Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF),ICRC,
SRCS, numerous local NGOs, OCHA, UNICEF, and WFP.
Presently, aid organizations in Mogadishu and
surrounding areas have been able to maintain
humanitarian operations despite the insecurity. OCHA
has convened regular meetings to coordinate response
strategies and develop contingency plans.


13. UN agencies are continuing current operations,
while looking at options to strengthen and expand
activities. The UN Children's Fund (UNICEF) is pre-
positioning stocks to maintain health services and drug
supplies. USAID/OFDA funds UNICEF to provide water,
health, and nutrition support to the most vulnerable
Somalis, including those affected by the latest
humanitarian crisis in Mogadishu. The UN World Food
Program (WFP) has made initial planning for air drops
of food to rural areas if the situation deteriorates
further and ground transport becomes unavailable.


14. The UN Logistics Cluster is reviewing alternative
routes for access to Mogadishu in the event that ports
are affected. During the UN Logistics Cluster meeting
on June 6, participants concluded that no logistical
difficulties have been experienced so far. On and off-
loading of cargo and transport have continued despite
ongoing fighting. Almost all agencies are operating
through contractors who negotiate for passage with the
warring parties and alternative logistics routes are
identified by or with contractors. While agencies did
not expect transport of humanitarian aid to be impeded
directly, intensified fighting may result in temporary
access or movement problems, increase in road blocks
and rates paid, and hikes in fuel prices. The fighting
may also affect trade, resulting in price increases on
commodities and transport.


15. According to USAID/OFDA-funded partner World
Concern, fighting in Mogadishu has not had a noticeable
impact on project activities in Middle Shabelle Region.
However, World Concern has observed a recent influx of
people from Mogadishu to Juba Valley, especially Jilib
town.


16. Furthermore, agencies are concerned that the
humanitarian situation in Mogadishu and neighboring
areas already hit hard by the drought emergency, may
deteriorate further if the violence continues or
expands to surrounding areas. UNICEF is particularly
concerned about the conflict spreading to Jowhar, which
is the main hub of UNICEF operations in the region.
UNICEF has relocated staff from Jowhar as a security
precaution. As of May 31, UNICEF confirmed that 217
families had arrived in Jowhar from Mogadishu and were
being hosted by community members. According to
UNICEF, water is not a problem thus far as Jowhar town
is well served. However, individual households may
face food shortages as residents try to accommodate new
arrivals.


17. In Balaad, UNICEF is supporting hygiene and
sanitation, and extension and rehabilitation of the
water system. In addition, HIV/AIDS awareness
campaigns are planned. Additional staff have deployed
to Balaad to support cholera prevention activities and
monitor the number of IDPs arriving from Mogadishu.
The measles campaign in Balaad will start after the
June 11 National Immunization Day.

Conclusion


18. As the security environment in Mogadishu remains
fluid, it is still too early to assess what additional
humanitarian needs may emerge. Aid organizations are
developing contingency plans to respond as necessary.
Updates on the security situation and the humanitarian
impact of the fighting are highlighted and shared at
all interagency working group and cluster meetings.
USAID/OFDA is in daily contact with UN agencies on the
general security and humanitarian situations in
Mogadishu, surrounding regions, and Somalia in general.
USAID/OFDA anticipates more substantive reports on the
impact of this crisis to emerge as relative calm
returns to Mogadishu. USAID/OFDA supports ongoing
assistance for humanitarian activities and will
continue to monitor the evolving situation.
BELLAMY