Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06NAIROBI2456
2006-06-06 03:10:00
SECRET//NOFORN
Embassy Nairobi
Cable title:  

SOMALIA: MILITARY AND POLITICAL ADVANCES AGAINST

Tags:  PINS PGOV PTER PREL KISL SO 
pdf how-to read a cable
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FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2221
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 002456 

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2026
TAGS: PINS PGOV PTER PREL KISL SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA: MILITARY AND POLITICAL ADVANCES AGAINST
THE WARLORD/MINISTERS

Classified By: A/PolCouns L. Peterson, Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 002456

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2026
TAGS: PINS PGOV PTER PREL KISL SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA: MILITARY AND POLITICAL ADVANCES AGAINST
THE WARLORD/MINISTERS

Classified By: A/PolCouns L. Peterson, Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Although two Alliance for the Restoration of
Peace and Fight Against Terrorism (ARPFAT) leaders retain
control of their territory, the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC)
now controls the bulk of Mogadishu. The UIC's advance on
Jowhar is further cause for concern, both because it will
remove a substantial base for international operations and
because it sends a worrying signal of the courts' potential
to expand beyond Mogadishu. In spite of events in Mogadishu,
the TFIs have continued their efforts to carry on, this time
issuing an unhelpful announcement that the Mogadishu
warlord/ministers have been sacked, dashing hopes to work on
drawing these two factions together. There may still be room
for engaging the moderate Islamic courts, an idea that may be
taken up at an IGAD ministerial meeting on June 12. END
SUMMARY.

MILITARY
--------------

2. (C) UIC militias took control of Balad town, north of
Mogadishu, the morning of June 4. In response to the move on
Balad, the UN had withdrawn its staff from Jowhar on June 3.
As of 10:00 A.M. local time June 5, ICRC had information that
UIC forces were within 30 kilometers of Jowhar. Forces have
continued approaching Jowhar since that time. Jowhar
"governor" Mohamed Dheere has been in Addis Ababa, most
likely requesting material support from the Ethiopian
government. His return to Somalia is anticipated at any time.


3. (C) The UIC has further claimed to now have control of all
Mogadishu. Sources continue to report that Muse Sude and
Omar Finish retain control of their areas, but their holds
may be tenuous at best. ICRC advised that Sude's forces
retain control of an ICRC hospital seized the week of May 29.
The hospital has not yet become a military target, but area
residents are avoiding treatment at the hospital because they
fear an attack. Kenyan Ambassador to Somalia, Mohamed Affey,

expressed optimism about a statement by UIC spokesman Sheik
Sharif Sheik Ahmed to the effect that the UIC is willing to
enter into dialogue with any party to benefit the people of
Mogadishu. (COMMENT: We do not share his optimism. END
COMMENT.)


4. (S/NF) Sacked National Security Minister Mohamed Qanyare
Affrah has left Mogadishu and seems to be in Jowhar.
According to Affey, Qanyare was convinced by his clansmen
(Murosade) to leave his weapons (and Daynile air strip) in
their care and leave town in order to minimize the ongoing
Mogadishu conflict. Some of these clansmen are sympathizers
with the moderate Islamic courts. (NOTE: SIMO advises that
the moderates subsequently handed the weapons over to
extremist-affiliated militias. END NOTE.) Affey says
Qanyare will be looking to settle outside Somalia, possibly
in South Africa. He would not, Affey said, be welcome in
Kenya, lest the extremists attempt to track him down here.

POLITICAL
--------------

5. (C) Prime Minister Gedi announced on June 5 the sacking of
the four warlord/minister leaders of the ARPFAT. It is not
clear at this time whether this action originated with Gedi
or was pushed by President Yusuf. In a conversation with the
Ambassador on May 15, Yusuf was keen on presenting these four
with an ultimatum and sacking them if they did not comply.
The Ambassador pointed out to Yusuf that this was not the
sort of bridge building we were hoping for among the
different segments of the TFIs. Parliament must still
approve these dismissals, a vote we believe will easily pass.
(COMMENT: We had hoped to work on bringing the Mogadishu
warlords together with the TFIs, both to strengthen the
governing institutions and to create a more united front
against the UIC. These sackings will render hopeless such an
effort, at least in the near term. END COMMENT.)

IGAD LURCHES INTO ACTION
--------------

6. (C) Affey advised that Kenya will convene a meeting of
IGAD ministers June 12 to discuss developments in Mogadishu
and a possible way forward. Affey's one promising suggestion
was for IGAD to find a way to work with the moderate Islamic
courts and bring them into alliance with the TFIs. (COMMENT:
Approaching the moderate courts is an idea with which both we
and the UN have toyed. Drawing IGAD into such an effort
could have merits. END COMMENT.)

COMMENT

NAIROBI 00002456 002 OF 002


--------------

7. (C) The UIC's advance on Jowhar sends a disturbing signal
about the potential for the court militias to expand their
areas of control beyond Mogadishu. This is a symbolic blow
to the TFIs, both because it makes their return to Mogadishu
that much more unlikely, and also strikes at one of their
areas of interim control. The international community will
also experience fall-out from this move, as Jowhar was an
area of relative stability from which to operate. We will
continue to work behind the scenes with the UN to see if
engagement with the moderate courts may be an option to help
ratchet down the level of military activity and pull in
support for the TFIs. END COMMENT.
BELLAMY