Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06NAIROBI1444
2006-04-03 03:33:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Nairobi
Cable title:  

HORN OF AFRICA, STATE - USAID HUMANITARIAN

Tags:  AMGT OTRA ASEC 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNR #1444/01 0930333
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 030333Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0700
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA IMMEDIATE 8370
RUEHDJ/AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI IMMEDIATE 4086
INFO RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 3810
UNCLAS NAIROBI 001444 

SIPDIS

AIDAC

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/E, AF/EPS, AF/PD, EB, PRM/AF, IO
AID FOR A/AID, AA/DCHA, WGARVELINK, LROGERS, MHESS,
DCHA/OTI,
DCHA/OFDA FOR GGOTTLIEB, MMARX, IMACNAIRN, KCHANNELL
DCHA/FFP FOR JDWORKEN, JDRUMMOND, TANDERSON, DNELSON,
SBRADLEY
AID/EGAT FOR AA/EGAT, JSCHAFER, JTURK
AFR/EA FOR JBORNS, SMCCLURE
ADDIS ABABA FOR TIM STUFFT
DJIBOUTI FOR JSCHULMAN
ROME FOR FODAG
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH
BRUSSELS FOR PLERNER
NSC FOR JMELINE

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: AMGT OTRA ASEC
SUBJECT: HORN OF AFRICA, STATE - USAID HUMANITARIAN
UPDATE NUMBER 3

REF: A)STATE 27057; B)NAIROBI 00968; C)NAIROBI 01238

UNCLAS NAIROBI 001444

SIPDIS

AIDAC

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/E, AF/EPS, AF/PD, EB, PRM/AF, IO
AID FOR A/AID, AA/DCHA, WGARVELINK, LROGERS, MHESS,
DCHA/OTI,
DCHA/OFDA FOR GGOTTLIEB, MMARX, IMACNAIRN, KCHANNELL
DCHA/FFP FOR JDWORKEN, JDRUMMOND, TANDERSON, DNELSON,
SBRADLEY
AID/EGAT FOR AA/EGAT, JSCHAFER, JTURK
AFR/EA FOR JBORNS, SMCCLURE
ADDIS ABABA FOR TIM STUFFT
DJIBOUTI FOR JSCHULMAN
ROME FOR FODAG
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH
BRUSSELS FOR PLERNER
NSC FOR JMELINE

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: AMGT OTRA ASEC
SUBJECT: HORN OF AFRICA, STATE - USAID HUMANITARIAN
UPDATE NUMBER 3

REF: A)STATE 27057; B)NAIROBI 00968; C)NAIROBI 01238


1. This is the third update cable in response to Ref A
request for biweekly reports on the humanitarian
situation in the Horn of Africa. USAID Missions in
Kenya and Ethiopia, REDSO (Somalia, Djibouti),and
OFDA/ECARO contributed to this report.

FLASH REPORT


2. Early reports from an ongoing (March 25 - April 2)
REDSO site visit to northeast Kenya - Mandera, El Wak,
Wajir, and Garissa ? describe a bleak picture. Although
there has been scattered rainfall in the last two weeks,
it has been too localized and too low to have an impact
of worsening drought. In the Mandera region, livestock
are essentially gone: A handful of sheep, goats, cattle
and camels dot the landscape, but even camels, known for
their resiliency to drought, are dying. The regional
Mandera livestock market, once dynamic, has collapsed.
There are increasing numbers of nomadic families who
have lost all their animals arriving in Mandera town in
search of food. It is the end of the road for many of
these pastoralist "drop-outs," now totally dependent on
food aid. The World Food Program (WFP) is feeding about
80 percent of the population at 75 percent caloric
needs, but even this may not be enough. Malnutrition
rates range from 21 - 30 percent in supplementary
feeding centers, with large numbers of Ethiopians,
Kenyans and Somalis being cared for. Humanitarian
assistance has not yet managed to stabilize the
deteriorating situation, and more is needed. In the
worst case scenario of no rains, famine looms. In the
best case scenario that some April - May rains fall, it
will take years for pastoralist livelihoods and herds to
be re-established.

COUNTRY REPORTS


3. KENYA

UPDATE ON THE HUMANITARIAN/DIPLOMATIC FRONT: On March
28 in Nairobi, the national coordinator of the Arid

Lands Resource Management Project of the Kenyan Office
of the President in Kenya updated a small donor group on
a proposed Drought Contingency Fund, which would be
overseen by a steering committee of government, donor,
and civil society representatives. The purpose of the
Fund is to disburse prevention and preparedness grants
to local authorities of drought-prone and affected
districts in Kenya to address recurrent drought early
on. The European Commission is preparing to commit euro
4.6 million to the initiative.

DONOR RESPONSE UPDATE: USAID/OFDA has provided a total
of $2.6 million to meet non-food needs, and is in the
process of approving an additional $2.5 million for
nutrition and water interventions through UNICEF and
other NGOs. On the food aid side, in FY 06 FFP has
contributed 44,890 MT of food aid worth $32 million. At
present, 37 percent of WFP's emergency operation (EMOP)
requirement ($225 million) has been resourced. Current
distributions contain adequate cereals, but are
critically short of pulses and oil. This will improve
with a FFP arrival in May. There are no new donor EMOP
donations.

The Kenyan Red Cross Society reports that Kenyan
communities (private sector, civil society organizations
and individuals) have mobilized approximately $1.4
million cash and $355,000 in in-kind relief resources in

response to the drought.

UPDATE ON THE FOOD SECURITY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK: Food
security in the pastoral households continues to
deteriorate precariously as the dry season reaches its
peak. The World Bank funded Arid Lands Resource
Management Project (ALRMP) reported that little or no
rainfall was received in the northeast regions that
require the rains most. Watering distances of up to 50
- 60 miles for pastoralists in Wajir and Mandera
actually necessitate migration into Somalia and
Ethiopia, however, remaining animals are not strong
enough to trek more than 15-20 miles due to their
weakened body condition.

REDSO/FFPO, Dan Suther was in Wajir on March 29, and
reports that the situation is worsening. Virtually all
the animals are gone and the few camels left are now
dying. The NGO Merlin reports global acute malnutrition
rates of 29-30 percent in supplementary feeding centers.
Pastoralists with remaining animals are moving to water
points, setting up camp and waiting for food aid to
arrive. Pastoralist "drop-outs," who have nothing left
are moving to urban centers. In Mandera district,
Suther reports the situation is not any better. The
major regional livestock market has collapsed. Numbers
at the water points and distribution centers in town are
increasing. Action Against Hunger (AAH) in Mandera
reports global malnutrition rates of 21 - 27 percent,
with 30 percent of the children from Ethiopia, and 20
percent from Somalia. Should the long-rains season fail
to pick up in April, few animals are likely to survive
the extended dry spell and substantial numbers of
pastoralists will lose their entire livelihood. This
would add to the growing number of pastoralist ?drop-
outs? that become part of the urban poor.

From March 21 - 24, OFDA Regional Advisor Al Dwyer
traveled to the northern Kenyan district of Marsabit.
Families report that although they usually have about
100 head of livestock on average, they are down to 20 -
30 animals due to lack of pasture and water. Conflict
has arisen between tribes, disrupting grazing patterns
and exacerbating poverty. WFP is delivering food aid,
but is short of pulses and oil. Water trucking has
begun, and more boreholes are being dug. OFDA is
supporting these efforts through UNICEF. The 38 health
clinics that OFDA Dwyer visited were functioning well.
Failure of the April - May rains will eliminate many
remaining animals, and force people into urban centers
in search of food. Local officials and populations
highlighted the fact that drought occurs at regular
intervals, but that they need developmental programs to
break the boom and bust cycle.


4. ETHIOPIA

UPDATE ON THE HUMANITARIAN/DIPLOMATIC FRONT: Needs in
the Somali and Borena zones are increasing, and the UN
has issued the 2006 Humanitarian Appeal for $14 million.
Only $2.1 million has been received so far. USAID
participated in several GOE Disaster Preparedness and
Prevention Agency (DPPA) reassessments. In the Borena
Zone in the Oromiya region, the team's recommendation is
that beneficiary numbers be increased from 155,000 to
368,000 to cope with worsening drought conditions.
Final official figures will be released by the DPPA.
The GOE is leading reassessments in Afder and Liben
zones of the Somali region, and the Afar region. A
critical issue is identifying a solution for many of the
435,000 beneficiaries in Afar who have been identified

to receive food assistance. Although 54,600 received
emergency food assistance, the rest fell under the
Productive Safety Net Program, which, unfortunately, has
not been operational in Afar in 2006.

Therapeutic feeding programs have been hampered by a
requirement to pay duty on imported food, even though
used for humanitarian purposes. A sea change may be
underway. The Ministry of Finance and Economic
Development has issued a proclamation number to UNICEF
that will now allow duty-free entry of "plumpy nut"
therapeutic food. It is hoped that the proclamation
number will apply to all donors and NGOs, and
clarification is underway.

CARE and the Government of the Oromiya Region have
tankered over 4 million liters of water to the Borena
zone, primarily for human consumption but also for
livestock.

The Somali Regional Health Bureau and UNICEF have
completed Enhanced Outreach Strategy activities in 20
zones in the Somali Region. According to UNICEF,
160,000 children received vitamin A supplements, 137,000
children were de-wormed, and 159,000 children were
vaccinated against measles (83 percent coverage). In
addition, 48,000 children and 10,700 pregnant or
lactating women were referred to DPPB for targeted
supplementary feeding.

The Pastoralist Livelihoods Initiative (PLI) response is
continuing to gain momentum. Over 140,000 head of
livestock have been de-stocked, or are in the de-
stocking process. In the Somali Region, over 470,000
animals have been vaccinated. An additional 160,000
animals are planned to be vaccinated in the Oromiya
region. Approximately 27,000 animals in breeding herds
are being maintained by PLI partners, with additional
animals planned. This intervention includes food and
sometimes water provision for these herds. Additionally
16 animal health care workers have been trained and
deployed.

DONOR RESPONSE UPDATE: As of March 26, 2006 DPPA has
reported 18 percent and 11 percent of food allocations
were dispatched for the Somali region for February and
March respectively. The reported dispatches for the
Oromiya region are 86 and 4 percent for February and
March respectively.

The food pipelines for CSB and cereals break in June,
2006, and for pulses and oil at the end of December

2006. WFP estimates an additional 250,000 MT of cereals
and CSB will be required for the second half of 2006. A
small CSB donation was made by the Italians after it was
requested by WFP, but this donation only fills the CSB
pipeline through the end of June. No other donors have
made further commitments to WFP at this time.

USAID/OFDA is supporting rapid response water and
nutrition interventions totaling $300,000. Furthermore,
USAID/OFDA has awarded grants to CHF International for
water and sanitation projects in Gode and Afder Zones of
the Somali Region, to Merlin for water and sanitation in
West Imi in Afder Zone, and to Population Services
International (PSI) to provide water treatment products
and treated bed nets to other OFDA water and nutrition
partners responding to the drought. Implementation of
these projects and several more currently under review
will help fill a major gap in the drought response thus
far.


UPDATE ON THE FOOD SECURITY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
FEWSNET reports that the belg rains have been erratic
and late across Ethiopia. In the most affected regions
of southeast Ethiopia, no rains have fallen, raising
concern that cattle conditions will be as bad as they
were in the 2000 severe drought. On the other hand, the
onset of good rains in the higher altitude regions of
the Oromiya region has been reported. Browse has
regenerated for camels and goats, and pasture is showing
the initial signs of recovery.


5. SOMALIA

UPDATE ON THE HUMANITARIAN/DIPLOMATIC FRONT: On March
21 in Nairobi, the revised UN Consolidated Appeal (CAP)
for Somalia was launched. The revised CAP seeks Usd 326.7
million for 92 projects for the remaining of the year.
At this point, Usd 79 million or 24 percent has been
committed against the appeal, and water and health needs
remain largely unfunded. The UN Humanitarian
Coordinator stressed that Somalia"s infant, child and
maternal mortality rates are among the highest in the
world; average life expectancy is just 48 years; and
primary school enrollment rates are the lowest in the
world, and appealed to the humanitarian community to
scale up its current response.

Somali political leaders including the President, Prime
Minister, and Speaker of the Parliament, joined Inter-
governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Foreign
Ministers and Heads of State in Nairobi March 18-20 for
the 11th Summit of IGAD Heads of State and Government.
Discussion among the Heads of State focused on whether
and how to provide external military support to the
Somali Transitional Federal Institutions (TFIs) meeting
in Baidoa, Somalia. The Summit's final communique
reiterated the principal elements set out by the UN
Security Council, leading observers to hope that IGAD
will now take a back seat to the Somali institutions in
developing a National Security Plan.

Heavy fighting broke out again in the capital March 22-

26. Forces of the members of the Alliance for the
Restoration of Peace and Fighters Against Terrorism --
ARPFAT -- have been encircled in their strong-holds.
The principal antagonist against members of the ARPFAT
in this episode of fighting, businessman/Islamic Court
financier Abucar Omar Adani (a major shipper and
distributor of food assistance for WFP),is now in
control of all areas critical to his and the Banadir
Corporation business cartel's commercial operations out
of the El Ma'an port. The members of the ARPFAT have
seen their income generating capabilities crippled,
although Adaani has stated that he has now established
security over the El Ma'an port infrastructure for the
use of all Somali business interests.

DONOR RESPONSE UPDATE: A drought committee in Mogadishu
announced on January 30, 2006 that it had raised
$165,000 in cash, 444 MT of assorted food donations, and
15 water tankers. The donations were raised through an
innovative telethon coordinated through three local
telephone companies and organized jointly by the Somali
Institute of Management and Administration Development
(SIMAD) and Radio Horn Afrik in collaboration with a
wide number of civil society representatives. Sixty
percent of contributions were from women and most
donations were from Mogadishu.

UPDATE ON THE FOOD SECURITY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

FEWSNET reports localized rains in parts of Lower Juba,
Bay and Gedo. However, while they provided some very
short-term relief, they were not enough to slow a
deteriorating food security situation, and people are
resorting to their own coping mechanisms such as
reducing the number of meals, eating wild fruits, and
moving to IDP/destitute camps and urban centers.
Complete out migration to main towns for social support
and labor were also reported. There has been an
increase in the slaughtering of weak and newly born
animals. FEWSNET estimates that 80 percent of the
cattle, and 40 - 50 percent of sheep and goats have
died. The Somalia FEWSNET Representative traveled to
Gedo to investigate reports of human deaths. He
estimates that 20 ? 45 people died (about one-half of
them children) from a combination of malnutrition,
related disease, and thirst. The FEWSNET Representative
said that most of the deaths occurred in nomadic
households who are far from roads and villages, and
likely missed food aid distributions. He also said food
aid distributions by WFP, CARE, ICRC, Muslim aid, and
the business community are in progress, although
quantities are not sufficient (he mentioned one bag of
sorghum and some oil per household) for the level of
need.

OTHER TOPICS OF SPECIAL INTEREST: We welcome the news
that funding has been approved for 24 FEWSNET monitors
in Somalia to collect market and rainfall data and some
possible additional surge funding. There is still a
need for supplemental funding to provide on-the-ground
independent monitoring of humanitarian activities.
Already, the rumor mill is churning with reports of
deaths and communities not receiving food aid. Without
the ability to separate truth from rumor, there will be
imbalances in the humanitarian response, which are
likely to lead to increased attacks on humanitarian
deliveries and further jeopardize the provision of
assistance to those in need. REDSO/FFP's March 31
Somalia logistics report also confirms the need for
ongoing monitoring. We recommend establishment of
independent humanitarian assistance monitoring capacity
in Somalia whether through FEWSNET or another body.

Access is becoming more challenging for food aid
agencies. On March 21, clan fighting broke out at a WFP
distribution site outside Bualla in the Juba region
killing one person. An ICRC relief convoy was attacked
in Belet Weyne, and there was at least one casualty.
Following these security incidents, the UN Security
Office has advised that expatriate staff should not
travel to the Juba Valley ? the exact area most affected
by the drought where food aid is needed.


6. DJIBOUTI

UPDATE ON THE HUMANITARIAN/DIPLOMATIC FRONT:
Increasing numbers of pastoralists face a high risk of
dropping out of pastoralism due to progressive erosion
of their livestock assets. Malnutrition levels from
clinics and rapid assessments are high with the poor
state of health services making things worse.

DONOR RESPONSE UDPATE: WFP plans to feed up to 88,000
people in April. The humanitarian response if kept at
that level and well targeted is expected to be
sufficient to prevent the humanitarian situation from
deteriorating.

UPDATE ON THE FOOD SECURITY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

Recent showers have resulted in marginal improvements in
water and pasture, and satellite images indicate some

"greening" between February and March as a result of
these showers. There have also been reports of actual
rains during this period to corroborate the satellite
information. However, these rains are considered
insufficient to make any significant improvements in the
food security situation. There have been no major
increases in market prices of food and other consumable
commodities in the city. A stable situation in the city
usually has positive implications for rural households
who receive remittances from city relatives.

CONCLUSION


7. As this report describes, drought is deepening
across the Horn of Africa causing increasing numbers of
pastoralist "drop-outs," or those who have lost all
their animals, to become dependent on humanitarian
assistance for survival. Current humanitarian
assistance, especially non-food activities, has not been
adequate to protect livelihoods. In the best case
scenario that some rains fall over the next several
months, it is unlikely they will reverse the
deteriorating food security situation and will likely
cause water borne diseases and mortality among weakened
humans and animals. Given that forecasts show a high
probability of normal to below normal rains, donors
should mobilize now and prepare for the worst case
scenario. A Kenyan proverb says, "Koth en chiemo,"
which means "Rain is food." BELLAMY