POLITICAL INTRIGUES TO ENGENDER FURTHER

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 001262

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2026
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM PREL KE
SUBJECT: POLITICAL INTRIGUES TO ENGENDER FURTHER
PARLIAMENTARY PARALYSIS

REF: A. NAIROBI 1154


B. NAIROBI 1187

Classified By: Political Counselor Michael J. Fitzpatrick for
reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: After a four-month hiatus, Kenya's
Parliament faces daunting challenges when it reconvenes March

21. Despite the importance of pending legislation, including
the creation of a parliamentary budget office, the sharply
polarized climate -- equal parts partisan and personal --
coupled with corruption scandals and political intrigue will
take their toll on the ability of Parliament to effect
meaningful reforms. END SUMMARY.

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Priorities Facing Parliament
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2. (SBU) Kenya's Parliament faces a number of pressing issues
when it (finally!) reconvenes March 21. Parliament recessed
in early November to allow MPs to concentrate on the
constitutional referendum campaigns, but, following the
government,s humiliating defeat, President Kibaki promptly
prorogued Parliament to stave off a feared vote of no
confidence. After months of inactivity, MPs will be dusting
off more than twenty bills shelved in the interim.
Legislative priorities will be heavily influenced by the
newly appointed Deputy Leader of Government Business,
hard-liner Justice and Constitutional Affairs Minister Martha
Karua. According to Parliamentary Accounts Committee (PAC)
member Justice Muturi, the PAC expects to release its report
on the Anglo-Leasing scam in coming days to Parliament (Ref
A). Anticipated to be among legislation given priority are: a
proposal to create a Parliamentary Budget Committee (thus
furthering the democratization of the budget process); a
politial campaign finance bill (to regulate contributions and
fundraising which hitherto have been powerful motivating
factors behind corruption scandals as politicians seek
ever-expanded avenues for financing political campaigns; the
sexual offenses bill (sponsored by nominated MP Njoki Ndungu,
who has not been resting while Parliament was out); and the
witness protection bill designed to afford whistleblowers
greater protections (the need for which was amply
demonstrated in the poor handling of whistleblowers in
Goldenberg and many other scandals here).

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Battle Lines Drawn
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3. (C) These bills all merit the worthy consideration of MPs.
But any legislative initiatives will compete with corruption
scandals and political intrigues set against a backdrop of a
weakened government and an opposition baying for blood. The
Goldenberg and Anglo-Leasing scandals; the Ndungu land
report; the still unresolved way forward on constitutional
review; the imminent testing, sampling and destruction of the
one-ton plus of cocaine; and the recent "foreign8
mercenaries saga (ref B) all directly implicate various (and
competing) political leaders and factions. As such, these
issues all offer fierce competition for the attention of MPs
in this turbulent session. Opponents of the government, led
by the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM),will mercilessly
harry the government to their advantage. The former chairman
of the Kenya chapter of the International Commission of
Jurists, Otiende Amollo, spoke for many when he told poloff
to &expect fireworks8 upon the opening of Parliament.


4. (C) Sensing the battles ahead, the government is taking
measures to ensure they have the numbers to win in
Parliament. In a memo from the Head of Civil Service, Francis
Mutharura, the government issued restrictions on travel for
ministers and assistant ministers. The policy is designed to
deny the opposition the fodder to criticize the government of
excessive or extravagant travel and squandering of public
resources. Even more importantly, the goal is to ensure that
ministers and assistant ministers, who are also MPs, are
present in Parliament to support government policies. (NOTE:
In the December cabinet reshuffle, Kibaki appointed a record
"super-sized" cabinet: 83 ministers and assistant ministers,
numbers sufficient to ensure that the government would be
able to defeat a vote of no confidence (requiring two thirds
of the 222 members of parliament) and serve as a solid
pro-government voting block. END NOTE.)


5. (C) During a recent meeting of the Government of National
Unity (GNU) -- a thinly veiled attempt to bestow a national
patina on what is essentially a pro-government hodgepodge
collection of NARC and Ford-P, and poached KANU MPs --
President Kibaki urged MPs to attend parliamentary sessions
and to participate in debates and decision-making. The GNU
also appointed three new deputy whips to assist Chief Whip
Norman Nyagah drum up support for government policy. (Kibaki
appeared off-guard, however, when that meeting descended into
a rally urging the arrest of ODM/opposition leader Raila
Odinga, for his claims that the government (if not Kibaki's
second wife, Mary Wambui) sponsored the mercenaries and the
raid on the Standard newspaper.) In the words of one ODM
Parliamentary leader, the political waters are "super-heated,
beyond boiling." Noting with concern that the government's
actions indicate that it is "prepared for a tough time,
opposition nominated MP (KANU) Ruth Oniang'o told poloff that
MPs are "bracing for tomorrow and anxious" about what to
expect.

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Government Besieged On Many Fronts
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6. (C) The government has reason to be worried. Raila Odinga
explained to PolCons March 16 that the opposition would
indeed seek a vote of no confidence -- but not just yet. He
stated that too many MPs have outstanding loans owed to the
government exchequer to proceed immediately with a
no-confidence motion, which could jeopardize their own seats
in Parliament. But by fall, explained Raila, most of the
money owed by the MPs will have been repaid, and the
opposition will then be in a position to table such a motion
-- if only because a number of fence-sitting solons want to
be able to show their electorate as they campaign in 2007
that they were "tough on corruption." (NOTE: It is also
expected by that time that John Githongo will have released
even more damaging information connecting the Kibaki
administration -- and the President personally -- to the
Anglo-Leasing corruption scandal. Raila anticipates that this
will lend additional support for a vote of no confidence in
the Kibaki government. END NOTE.)


7. (SBU) In addition to threats posed by a vocal and dynamic
opposition, the government faces additional challenges from
within its own ranks. The revelations of corruption within
the Kibaki administration and the March 2 media raids have
sown a degree of discontent within its members. Even cabinet
ministers have spoken out against the government's responses
to both the dismissal (or lack there of) of implicated
officials. The diminished prestige of Vice President Moody
Awori is also cause of some friction, where some officials
continue to support him and others, notably Ford-K members,
view his disgrace (in connection to the Anglo-Leasing
scandal) as cause for dismissal. The vacant position would
then create an opportunity for someone from Ford-K to step
into the VP's shoes. The Meru component of GEMA, an erstwhile
stalwart of supporter of Kibaki's administration, has put the
government on notice that it will no longer blindly support
government policies.


8. (C) And behind the intra-Kikuyu squabbling at the heart of
the Administration lies Kenya's version of "Desperate
Housewives." In this case, the TV and newspaper audiences
consume daily installments of this tele-drama of "the wives."
Those allied with the so-called "Hurlingham" faction (e.g,
ex-Minister Murungaru, ex-Presidential Assistant Alfred
Getonga, MP Paul Muite and supported by official wife Lucy
Kibaki) were disgraced by the Anglo-Leasing and corruption
scandals. But they now see an opportunity for payback
against the rival "Muthaiga" faction responsible for the
Standard raid and mercenaries fiascos (e.g, Security Minister
Michuki, Presidential Advisor Stanley Murage, CID Chief
Joseph Kamau, seen as tied to unofficial-but-powerful Wife
Number Two, Mary Wambui). But will the Hurlingham bunch
succeed in recovering lost ground? Will the Muthaiga crowd
be taken down a notch or two? (Stay tuned, viewers!) As
these two groups battle it out for the attention/approval of
the somnolent President -- who has yet to say a word publicly
about the Standard raid or mercenaries (except to indirectly
imply that Wambui's daughter has no right to use his name) --
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COMMENT
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9. (C) COMMENT: The continuing revelations of official
corruption and the increasingly bizarre "mercenaries" saga
threaten to distract Parliament from the real business at
hand. Despite the government,s attempts to bolster its
support base, opponents both in and out of government are
likely to disrupt the government,s agenda when it serves
their purposes. This session will present the first
opportunity since the government,s referendum defeat for
opponents to put their thus-far verbal criticism to the test
with substantive action. By all accounts, the floor of
Parliament will soon become the battleground for 2007.
BELLAMY