17TH HORN OF AFRICA CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NAIROBI 001161

SIPDIS

AIDAC

USAID/DCHA FOR WGARVELINK, LROGERS
DCHA/OFDA FOR GGOTTLIEB, MMARX, PMORRIS, CGOTTSCHALK
DCHA/FFP FOR JDWORKEN, SBRADLEY
USAID/AFR/EA FOR JBORNS
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAID
DAR ES SALAAM FOR USAID
KAMPALA FOR USAID
KHARTOUM FOR USAID
KIGALI FOR USAID
ROME FOR FODAG
NSC FOR JMELINE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID SENV TPHY XW ZF EAGR ECON ETRD KE PGOV SOCI
SUBJECT: 17TH HORN OF AFRICA CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM

Summary


1. The 17th Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) climate
outlook forum (COF) took place in Nairobi March 1-3,
organized by the USAID-supported Inter-Governmental
Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction
and Applications Center (ICPAC). The forum brought
together policy makers, technical experts and climate
outlook users from ten GHA countries to develop a
forecast for the March to May 2006 rainfall season
and to review its implications.


2. The consensus climate forecast is for an increased
likelihood of normal to below-normal rainfall over
much of the GHA during the March to May 2006 rainy
season.


3. If the region does experience below normal
rainfall, there will be a significant negative impact
on regional drought conditions, and reduce the
likelihood for recovery. In turn, donors providing
humanitarian assistance to affected populations,
including the USG, will need to review assistance
strategies and levels. End Summary.

Background


4. The USAID Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance
(USAID/OFDA) Nairobi-based information technology
specialist attended the 17th COF organized by ICPAC
in Nairobi March 1-3. The forum is organized twice
per year by GHA governments and ICPAC to formulate
consensus climate forecasts for the GHA.


5. The mission of ICPAC is to provide timely climate
information and prediction services and enhanced
applications of such products to reduce climate and
weather related risks to food security, water
resources and health for sustainable development in
the GHA region. In addition to hosting the COFs,
ICPAC works with member countries to strengthen the
capacity of climate scientists and users in climate
prediction and applications. The International
Research Institute for Climate Prediction at Columbia
University (IRI) has been providing technical
assistance to ICPAC through a USAID\OFDA grant to
improve climate forecasting in the GHA region.


6. In 2005, ICPAC officially became a technical
agency of IGAD, and it plans to begin providing
technical assistance to other offices within the IGAD
secretariat on issues related to climate and weather

SIPDIS
forecasting.

The Forum


7. The 17th COF was organized jointly by ICPAC, the
national meteorological and hydrological services of
the ten GHA countries, the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) and IRI.


8. Participants included climate scientists and
experts from national, regional and international
institutions including the Drought Monitoring Center
in Zimbabwe, the United States Geological Survey, the
Famine Early Warning System, University of Nairobi,
UN Food and Agriculture Organization, UN World Food
Program, Kenya Wildlife Services (KWS),the Regional
Center for Mapping of Resources for Development, IRI,
the WMO, Kenya Power and Lightning Company (KPLC) and
media organizations.


9. The theme of the forum was "applications of
seasonal climate prediction products and services in
coping with climate related risks in the GHA".
Discussions were held on the state of the global
climate system and its implications on the seasonal
climate of the GHA. Among the principal factors
taken into account were the observed and predicted
surface sea temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical
Pacific Ocean and in the tropical Atlantic and Indian
oceans.

The Forecast


10. The three categories used for the forecast are
above-normal, normal, and below-normal rainfall, with
those definitions based on observed rainfall averages
over a thirty year period. "Climatology" refers to a
situation where any of the three categories has an
equal chance of occurring. "Above-normal" rainfall
is defined as within the wettest third of recorded
rainfall amounts in each area, "normal" is defined as
the third of the recorded rainfall amounts centered
around the climatological median, and "below-normal"
rainfall as within the driest third of recorded
rainfall amounts.


11. The climate experts' consensus forecast is as
follows:

-- Burundi: an increased likelihood of normal to
above-normal rainfall;

-- Djibouti: climatology with increased likelihood
of normal to above-normal rainfall in the south;

-- Eritrea: climatology in much of the country;

-- Ethiopia: climatology in the north, increased
likelihood of normal to above-normal rainfall in
central parts of the country, and an increased
likelihood of normal to below-normal rainfall in the
south;

-- Kenya: an increased likelihood of normal to
below-normal rainfall in much of the country, and an
increased likelihood of normal to above-normal
rainfall in parts of the country including the Lake
Victoria basin;

--Rwanda: an increased likelihood of normal to
above-normal rainfall;

-- Somalia: an increased likelihood of normal to
below-normal rainfall in most of the country, with an
increased likelihood of normal to above-normal
rainfall in the northwest and coastal areas;

-- Sudan: climatology in the north and an increased
likelihood of normal to above-normal rainfall in the
south;

-- Tanzania: an increased likelihood of normal to
below-normal rainfall in much of central and north-
eastern parts of the country, and an increased
likelihood of normal to above-normal rainfall over
the Lake Victoria basin and the south and southwest;

-- Uganda: an increased likelihood of normal to
below-normal rainfall in central and south-eastern
parts of the country and an increased likelihood of
normal to above-normal rainfall in the Lake Victoria
basin and the west.

Implications of the Forecast


12. The regional climate outlook is susceptible to
spatial and temporal variations. However, it can
assist decision makers in making appropriate plans to
mitigate the adverse impacts of extreme climate
events in many sectors, while taking advantage of
good conditions to make potential improvements.


13. After developing the climate outlook, forum
participants formed country teams to discuss its
potential impacts and implications. The teams also
prepared strategies for disseminating the climate
outlook information to non-specialists, and made
recommendations on how to use the forecast to reduce
vulnerability in affected populations.


14. Areas projected for normal rainfall in the
coming season may not receive enough rain to reverse
the impacts of the accumulated rainfall deficits and
drought conditions that have persisted over parts of
these areas.


15. Heavy and short duration rains and flash floods
could occur, especially in arid and semi arid zones
even during the seasons with below-normal rainfall
conditions.


16. Areas with an above-normal rainfall forecast may
experience a rise in river and reservoir water levels
and increased soil moisture, leading to higher
agricultural production, increased availability of
pasture and water for livestock, and reduction in
water-related conflict. However, above-normal
rainfall may also lead to an increase in water-borne
diseases, flooding, damage to crops and vegetation,
destruction of infrastructure and disruption of
transportation.


17. Areas receiving below-normal rainfall will
experience a deepening of drought effects, including
water shortages, need for relief food, migration of
pastoralists in search of pasture and water and high
demand for agricultural produce.


18. Most forecasters are predicting a transition
from a mild La Nina to neutral conditions over the
eastern and central equatorial Pacific ocean while
the SSTs in much of the Atlantic ocean and south-
western and eastern/equatorial Indian ocean are
warmer than average. This, combined with the cooler
than average temperature over north-western parts of
the Indian ocean caused a tropical cyclone to develop
in the southwestern Indian ocean producing heavy
rainfall over some parts of the equatorial region
during the forum (felt as heavy unseasonal rains in
Nairobi). Further development of tropical cyclones
in the western Indian ocean region during the March-
May period could disrupt the rainfall patterns in the
sub-region.

Conclusions


19. The COFs and the climate information and
prediction products that result have enormously
improved the quality of seasonal rainfall outlook in
the GHA since their inception. As participation at
the COFs has widened with different themes, the
interaction of users from various sectors has
improved the dissemination of climate information and
prediction products for use in early warning and
disaster management, preparedness and mitigation, and
in planning for sustainable development in the GHA
region.


20. The general forecast for lower than normal rains
in much of the areas affected by the drought-induced
food insecurity and livelihoods crisis in the region
is cause for serious concern. Especially in Somalia,
where it is difficult to deliver assistance, the
current crisis could deteriorate into a catastrophe
and famine if the rains fail.


21. Donors, including the USG, providing
humanitarian and other assistance to mitigate the
effects of the crisis and reduce long-term
vulnerability may, therefore, need to find more
resources to address a potential worsening of the
already bad situation in the GHA region.

ROWE