KENYAN GOVERNMENT FUMBLES, OPPOSITION BENEFITS

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 001154

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2026
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM KE
SUBJECT: KENYAN GOVERNMENT FUMBLES, OPPOSITION BENEFITS

REF: A. NAIROBI 1077

B. NAIROBI 945

C. NAIROBI 661

Classified By: Political Counselor Michael J. Fitzpatrick. Reasons 1.4
(b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: With Parliament set to reconvene March 21,
Kenya's "ODM" opposition is armed with a number of issues
over which to take on the government. Buoyed by the
government's recent media crack-down gaffe, ODM leaders have
publicly recommitted themselves to cooperation. Their united
exterior, however, belies the rifts that exist among the
various strong personalities vying for the starring role.
END SUMMARY.

ORANGE HAS A CAUSE
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2. (C) The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has effectively
gelled into an opposition coalition. Born of last fall's
KANU and Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) campaign against the
largely government-backed draft constitution, ODM is now
speaking publicly with one voice on the issues of media
freedom, corruption, and constitutional reform. The February
28 arrest of three Standard journalists and the March 2
police raids on the Standard Media Group's facilities (ref
B),provided ODM its most recent boost, prompting both a
statement declaring the end of the Kibaki government's
legitimacy, and a several thousand-strong protest march
through downtown Nairobi.


3. (C) The opposition also bonded over the January exposure
of massive corruption involving officials close to President
Kibaki. LDP Secretary General Joseph Kamotho explained to
poloff recently that he and his colleagues would, when
Parliament resumes March 21, exert pressure on the government
to clean up corruption. Presentation of the Public Accounts
Committee's (PAC) investigation into the Anglo Leasing scam
would be a priority, PAC member and KANU Minority Whip Justin
Muturi told poloff. (NOTE: John Githongo's Anglo Leasing
disclosures chiefly implicated Democratic Party/Mount Kenya
mafia, not LDP or KANU, politicians. END NOTE.) Although
Muturi appreciated the symbolic importance of three
ministers' resignations (ref C),prosecutions are necessary
to demonstrate Kibaki's commitment to tackling corruption.
He doubted, however, that any of the individuals implicated
would actually be held legally accountable. Ironically, KANU
nominated MP Ruth Oniang'o gave Kibaki points for forcing the
resignations, but added that he needed to do more.

DUELING CONSTITUTIONS
--------------


4. (C) Both government and opposition intend to keep the
constitution debate cooking, if only on a back burner.
Oniang'o was disappointed with Kibaki's latest move on
constitutional reform: naming a 15-member panel of "experts"
to consider how the review should continue. She asked
rhetorically, "Who are they?" adding that Kenya should not
"waste its energy" on a new constitution. The ODM on
February 28 issued a detailed statement decrying Kibaki's
refusal to engage in consultations and criticizing the
President's team for not having learned its lesson (through
the November 2005 referendum) that constitution making "is
not a government project." For its part, the ODM plans to
convene a parallel committee of experts. Constitutional
reform is not a priority for the Kibaki government, Kamotho
remarked to poloff, because Kenyans will insist on a document
that limits the power of the executive, and the current
government will not accept an end to its "one man show."
(COMMENT: Indeed, no one in town predicts a new Kenyan
constitution before 2007; politicians on all sides are
pressed for time around other preoccupations -- but will
gladly use the constitutional debate as cudgel with which to
hit their opponents. END COMMENT.)

ODM 1, NARC O: BY-ELECTION LANDSLIDE
--------------


5. (SBU) The March 1 Parliamentary by-election in
Kasipul-Kabondo constituency (Nyanza Province) was the first
face-off between NARC and one of its former constituent
partners (LDP),as well as a model of ODM cooperation.
Agreeing it was clearly LDP territory, KANU did not field a
candidate, and instead campaigned with LDP under the ODM
banner. LDP's Kamotho told poloff before the election that
the ODM would similarly put forward a single candidate for
president in 2007. Backed by Luo Nyanza superstar Raila
Odinga, LDP's Paddy Ahenda beat NARC's Otieno K'Opiyo (also a
Luo) by a margin of 18,202 to 1,912 votes.

ODM ON LIFE SUPPORT?
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6. (C) The apparent KANU-LDP cooperation in Kasipul-Kabondo
notwithstanding, the prognosis for the ODM's continued
viability is not good. KANU's Muturi would not discuss ODM's
institutional prospects, and instead criticized as "unclean"
with respect to corruption a number of ODM leaders, most
notably Odinga and even KANU's William Ruto. Oniang'o was
less circumspect, declaring bluntly "ODM will not last." The
reason, she explained was that KANU was still upset at Odinga
for "robbing their house." (NOTE: This is a reference to
Odinga's 2002 split from KANU, of which he was formerly
Secretary General, with other disaffected members when Uhuru

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Kenyatta was given the party nod for the presidency. END
NOTE.) In contrast, Kamotho insisted that ODM would stay
together for the 2007 general election. The leaders would be
careful, he added, to draw lessons from LDP's betrayal by
NARC, to create a strong, single body. Kamotho dismissed as
"individual ambition" a number of ODM leaders' announced
intention to run for president, insisting the group would be
able to put forth a consensus candidate.

COMMENT
--------------


7. C) COMMENT: ODM is showing surprising staying power as a
political vehicle - even as there is a barely hidden battle
among LDP and KANU leaders for control of the steering wheel.
With enduring sensitivities between the two main partners,
LDP still smarting from its failed Rainbow Coalition (NARC)
experiment, and a number of strong personalities vying for
center stage in 2007, the likelihood of ODM sustaining itself
through the next general election is slight. KANU, in
particular, is the reluctant bride - cautious and pessimistic
- unwilling to compromise Uhuru Kenyatta's presidential
potential. However, ODM is effective as a loud and
charismatic front for highlighting government missteps.
Focused attention on the issues of opposition - the
constitution, corruption and democratic space - could prove
an effective cohesive force for the short-term. END COMMENT.
BELLAMY