Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06NAHA96
2006-04-20 10:16:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Consulate Naha
Cable title:  

OKINAWA'S NEXT GOVERNOR: POSSIBLE CANDIDATES

Tags:  MARR PREL JA 
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 NAHA 000096 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: MARR PREL JA
SUBJECT: OKINAWA'S NEXT GOVERNOR: POSSIBLE CANDIDATES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 NAHA 000096

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: MARR PREL JA
SUBJECT: OKINAWA'S NEXT GOVERNOR: POSSIBLE CANDIDATES


1. (SBU) Introduction: In the following discussion of possible
candidates for governor in this November's gubernatorial
election, it is worth noting that Okinawa, unlike Japan as a
whole, has had a functioning two-party system since reversion in

1972. Since that time, Okinawa has seen the fortunes of the
conservatives and "reformists" (as the group of left-of-center
parties is known) rise and fall. Since election of the first
governor in 1968, three reformists and two conservatives have
held the post. Although major issues and big personalities can
have a significant impact on candidates' electoral fortunes, the
one certainty about Okinawan politics is that the two parties do
tend to trade roles as the majority and minority. With the
conservatives under Governor Inamine having been in the majority
now since 1998, many of our contacts suggest (either fearfully
or enthusiastically, depending on their views) that this autumn
the political pendulum will again swing the reformists' way and
result in them capturing the governorship, setting up further
reformist victories in elections in Ginowan city in 2007 and the
prefectural assembly in 2008. Given that the reformists have
been quite consistent in uncompromisingly rejecting relocation
of Futenma Air Station within Okinawa, the result of this
November's election is obviously of more than passing interest
to the USG. End introduction.


2. (U) Summary. Okinawan media and political leaders have
already begun handicapping potential candidates for this
November's gubernatorial election. Neither the conservatives
nor reformists yet have a clear front-runner. Incumbent
Governor Keiichi Inamine has not officially stated whether he
will seek a third term, but gives every indication that he will
not. Whoever the candidates are, it is safe to predict that
relocation of Futenma will be a central issue in this autumn's
campaign. End Summary.

Preview of Governor's Race-Conservative Camp


3. (SBU) Although he has not announced officially whether he
will run for for a third term this November, Governor Inamine
has told ConGen on numerous occasions that he has no intention
of running again; he has made similar unambiguous declarations
to conservative lawmakers in Okinawa. Nevertheless, a few
conservatives have recently expressed interest in a third

Inamine term, calling him the conservatives' best choice out of
a likely field of uninspiring choices this November. LDP
advisor Professor Tsuneo Oshiro noted that while he didn't think
Inamine would run again, he believed he would win if he did;
Oshiro noted that in the last gubernatorial election, Inamine
won in every voting block in the prefecture. In the upcoming
election, Inamine would be in a particularly strong position if
he chose to run, thought Oshiro: most conservatives would feel
compelled to back him if he ran again, and many
reformist-inclined voters might vote for the governor because of
his opposition to the "coastal Schwab" plan for Futenma.
Hiroshi Goya, acting president of the independent-reformist Sozo
political group, told Polmil officer that Inamine was likely to
stay on because the conservatives did not have a stronger
candidate, a comment echoed by reformist Professor Masaaki Gabe.


NAHA 00000096 002 OF 005




4. (SBU) With Inamine's intentions unclear, speculation on other
possible conservative candidates has been underway since
January, running the gamut from big name players to wildly
speculative dark horses. The top name currently is Okinawa
Electric Company Chairman Hirokazu Nakaima. LDP Okinawa
Executive Director Nakamatsu told Polmil officer that the
conservative camp's kingmaker, Kanehide group chairman Hideno
Goya, personally backed Nakaima because he found Nakaima to be a
person "who would say what needed to be said for the sake of the
people."


5. (SBU) While Nakaima was said to be very interested in
running, Nakamatsu admitted he did not have much public appeal.
He also lacked full support within critical business and
economic circles. Nakamatsu said the LDP had sounded out party
supporters in early February about whom they would like to stand
for governor. Influential construction company President
Yukikazu Kokuba said that he thought Nakaima was the best
because "he did what he said he would do," calling him the
"Okinawan version of Koizumi." Yoshiyama Seian, Chairman of the
Small-Medium Business Federation, told Nakamatsu and other LDP
officials that he did not support Nakaima because of his
"private problems," probably an allusion to Nakaima's reported
penchant for womanizing and consumption of alcohol. Professor
Oshiro noted another potential problem was that Nakaima and
Inamine did not get along personally, which would make party
unity during the campaign more problematic. Relations between
the two have been strained since Nakaima publicly criticized
Inamine at an LDP New Year's party in January for refusing to
accept the US-GOJ defense realignment agreement's requirement
for Futenma relocation, saying Inamine was risking the vital
Tokyo-Okinawa economic pipeline.


6. (SBU) The Okinawan media have also mentioned Vice-Governor
Noriaki Kakazu, National Diet member Kozaburo Nishime, and
Urasoe Mayor Mitsuo Gima as potential conservative candidates.
Our contacts generally assess that Kakazu, while popular and
thought to be honest, is not seen as a good politician because
he tries to please everyone. The LDP's Nakamatsu flatly told
Polmil officer that Kakazu did not have the leadership skills to
be governor, although he enjoys good relations with
national-level LDP politicians. Diet member Nishime, though
well respected both inside and outside Okinawa, is unlikely to
run. According to Nakamatsu, Nishime would not risk his safe
seat in the Diet in an uncertain attempt to become governor.
Mayor Gima is viewed as somewhat of a dark horse, but has
significant strengths, according to our interlocutors. Gima has
a sterling political reputation as a middle-of-the-road
conservative; is a popular mayor of a major city; and has
significant ties with centrist and non-affiliated political
groups, most notably "Sozo," the creation of energetic
independent Diet member Mikio Shimoji. Shimoji has told ConGen
he is looking for a candidate his group could support, and
recently a Sozo member told pol-mil officer that Gima was high
on Shimoji's list. Gima's non-ideological, flexible attitude
toward US military bases would undoubtedly appeal to many
conservative voters.

NAHA 00000096 003 OF 005



The Reformist Camp:


7. (SBU) Within the "reformist" coalition, no name has yet
emerged as a likely contender. Among the possible candidates,
the most frequently mentioned name is Okinawan Socialist Masses
Party (OSMP) upper house Diet member Keiko Itokazu. Governor
Inamine recently told ConGen he thought Itokazu would be the
strongest possible reformist candidate, although he had no idea
if she wanted to run. In ConGen's observation, Itokazu is an
impressive, relentless debater, particularly on military base
issues. There is some trepidation within the Okinawan LDP about
the prospect of facing an Itokazu candidacy; party executive
director Nakamatsu told us recently that if the race were
between Itokazu and Nakaima, Nakaima would lose.


8. (SBU) Some interlocutors doubt that Itokazu would risk her
Diet seat for a shot at the governorship. Reformist Okinawa
City mayoral candidate and former national Diet member Mitsuko
Tomon told Polmil chief that Itokazu was unlikely to try for
governor because the Diet was "perfect for her." Tomon noted
that Diet members get good salaries, get to live in Tokyo and
are not responsible for actually making things happen in the way
a governor or mayor would be.


9. (SBU) The LDP's Nakamatsu speculated that if Tomon won the
April 23 Okinawa City election, reformists might push Itokazu to
run as part of a "trend for women candidates." Sozo Acting
President Goya said that even if Itokazu didn't want to run, she
would have to if her supporters insisted. Ryukyu University
Professor Oshiro agreed, saying reformists wanted the governor's
seat more than they wanted a Diet seat. They would insist if
they believed Itokazu had the best chance of winning. Komeito
Okinawa City Assemblyman Esu noted that with almost half of
Okinawa City's voters being women, female candidates were
perceived as having the advantage in elections because they
could convincingly push childcare and education issues. Still,
the reformist camp has not coalesced behind her (or anyone
else). Reformist Professor Gabe described Itokazu as a "single
issue protestor." He argued that she was not well rounded,
being strong only on anti-base and military issues.


10. (SBU) Other potential reformist candidates occasionally
mentioned include Ginowan City Mayor Yoichi Iha, and lower house
Diet member Teruya Kantoku. Professor Gabe thought that while
Iha was very ambitious and interested in running for governor,
he was too junior, as he had only won one election. Most of our
contacts believe Iha has neither the breadth nor depth on
Okinawa-wide issues to run, nor the necessary ties to Tokyo;
many add that his election as Ginowan City mayor in 2003 was due
mainly to two conservative candidates splitting the vote.
Almost no one takes seriously the possibility of a Teruya
candidacy, since the veteran lawmaker has been in visibly poor
health since suffering a stroke in early 2005.

Others


11. (SBU) Independent Diet member Mikio Shimoji leads the pack

NAHA 00000096 004 OF 005


of possible independent candidates. Described by Governor
Inamine as "the most active politician in Okinawa," Shimoji
frequently appears on national TV and has strong ties among many
younger, centrist politicians in Okinawa, chiefly among various
city council members. Were he to run, Shimoji would probably
face the united opposition of the Okinawa LDP, which has been
furious with Shimoji since he openly (and unsuccessfully) backed
the reformist candidate for mayor in Naha in 2004; Shimoji and
the LDP formally parted ways last year. People close to Shimoji
have told ConGen he is unlikely to run because his victory in
the September 2005 Diet race was close and he would not risk
another race so soon. Sozo acting president Goya told Polmil
officer he thought Shimoji owed it to his supporters to stay in
the Diet.


12. (SBU) Former Hosei University professor Minoru Higa has been
(rarely) mentioned by a few observers. Unlike most other
possible candidates, Higa seems ready to run; he has already
begun his campaign, sending sound trucks through the streets
months ahead of the official campaign season. However, few give
him good odds on winning. Higa is said to have a good
personality but weak leadership skills. Higa apparently is
realistic about his chances, letting some of his supporters know
that if Urasoe mayor Gima decides to run for governor, Higa will
switch his efforts to try to replace Gima.

Municipal Race a Bellwether for the Prefectural Race?


13. (SBU) Over the past thirty years, local political lore has
asserted that the party which wins the Okinawa City mayoral
election will almost certainly win the gubernatorial election
later that year; in fact, this truism is generally accurate. As
a result, attention in Okinawa has been focused heavily in
recent weeks on the upcoming April 23 Okinawa City election,
which pits former Upper House member Mitsuko Tomon (reformist)
against conservative Sachio Kuwae, son of former Okinawa City
mayor Choko Kuwae. At this point, most observers believe
Kuwae's chances of victory are poor, saying he has three strikes
against him - low name recognition, lack of support from
Komeito, and lack of campaign funds. Kuwae's opponent,
Socialist Democratic Party member Tomon, is a very strong
candidate because of her political experience and resulting name
recognition. Tomon has told us she is fighting the campaign of
her political life, and that if she wins she hopes to become the
reformists' candidate for the 2010 gubernatorial election.


14. (SBU) Because Governor Inamine is convinced the results of
the Okinawa City election will be widely perceived as a forecast
of the likely gubernatorial election result in November, he has
decided to hold off announcing his intentions until after the
new mayor takes office. The LDP's Nakamatsu told us the party
could not afford to wait much beyond that because it would need
to begin campaigning. He said that until Inamine announced that
he would not seek a third term, the party's hands were tied and
that he hoped Inamine would make a decision sometime in May.

Futenma Relocation to be a Hot Issue in November


NAHA 00000096 005 OF 005



15. (SBU) Regardless of who the two candidates are in November,
Futenma relocation within Okinawa is guaranteed to be one of the
main issues in the campaign. The reformist candidate can be
safely predicted to oppose relocation within Okinawa (this has
been the consistent position of reformist candidates since the
1996 SACO agreement). The conservative candidate's statements
will be examined minutely by the reformist media for signs of
flexibility on relocation, with such signs invariably portrayed
by the media as indications of weakness and unjustified
accommodation with a central government intent on ignoring the
wishes of the Okinawan people. Former Governor Masahide Ota's
refusal to agree to relocation was the key issue in the 1998
election that saw his defeat by Keiichi Inamine; in that year,
most Okinawans had grown weary of Ota's eight years of
ideologically-motivated attacks on the US-Japan alliance, and
were worried that four more years of the same could jeopardize
the vital "pipeline" of GOJ subsidies to Okinawa. What the mood
of the electorate will be in November is unpredictable, but so
far we have seen little reason (notwithstanding recent local
media polls asserting a strong majority of Okinawans disagrees
with Futenma relocation within the prefecture) that the
electorate will not be realistic and flexible toward military
base issues this year.
REICH