GOJ-NAGO AGREEMENT ON FUTENMA PLEASES CONSERVATIVES, ANGERS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NAHA 000085

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: MARR PREL JA
SUBJECT: GOJ-NAGO AGREEMENT ON FUTENMA PLEASES CONSERVATIVES, ANGERS

REFORMISTS, PUTS GOVERNOR ON THE SPOT


1. (SBU) Summary: On April 8, 2006 Japan Defense Agency
(JDA) Director General Fukushiro Nukaga and Nago Mayor Yoshikazu
Shimabukuro reached an agreement on a two runway, V-shaped
configuration for the Marine Corp Air Station (MCAS) Futenma
relocation facility (FRF) to be constructed on the coastal
portion of Camp Schwab in Nago. Okinawan reaction to the
Nukaga-Shimabukuro agreement has fallen along predictable lines,
with conservatives accepting the plan and reformists opposing
it. The one notable exception from the conservative camp is
Governor Inamine, who has refused to deviate from his refusenik
opposition to any plan other than the original (and now
obsolete) Special Action Committee on Okinawa (SACO) offshore
airbase plan. The GOJ-Nago agreement has dealt another serious,
public blow to the argument of reformists and local media that
no one within Okinawa will accept a within-prefecture relocation
of MCAS Futenma; the first blow came this January when Nago
voters overwhelmingly elected Shimabukuro, a candidate who
supported a revised "coastal Schwab" plan, over his two
competitors, both of whom rejected any relocation of MCAS
Futenma within Okinawa. Although the GOJ's focus now appears to
be shifting toward persuading Governor Inamine to also accept
the agreement, the reality is that with Nago's agreement,
Inamine has become almost irrelevant on the Futenma relocation
issue. End Summary.

Conservatives Supporting Nukaga-Shimabukuro Agreement


2. (SBU) Illustrating the Governor's near-isolation within his
own conservative coalition, prominent members of the Okinawa LDP
have expressed support for last week's agreement, in contrast to
Inamine's continued opposition. Typifying the party's reaction,
Okinawa LDP Secretary General Kosuke Gushi publicly supported
the agreement on April 9, saying that the plan would hasten
removal of the danger posed by MCAS Futenma. He added that he
highly evaluated the plan because it "satisfies Nago and
recognizes the need to have flight routes that avoid flying over
people's houses." Okinawa LDP lower house Diet member Osamu
Ashitomi hailed the agreement to us, saying he "strongly
appreciated this settlement because my electoral district
includes Futenma. My constituents will be happy that the air
station is to be relocated to a safer location." (note:
Ashitomi told us he will shortly organize a "Futenma Relocation
Promotion Council" composed of pro-agreement conservative
politicians from Ginowan and Nago cities). Conservative mayors
from four northern Okinawan towns (Ginoza, Onna, Higashi, and
Kin) also announced their support of the "V-plan," on April 9,
giving Mayor Shimabukuro some political cover from reformist
attacks.


3. (SBU) Privately, most conservatives were not pleased with
Inamine's rejection of the DPRI agreement last October over the
FRF issue, and had hoped strongly that once Nago and the GOJ
announced an agreement, the Governor would not openly oppose it.
Inamine's continued opposition is likely to further strain his
ties with his own party. LDP Chief Gushi hinted at these
strains when he stated on April 8 that he would like to

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cooperate with "the Governor who says he is opposing the revised
coastal Schwab plan" and ask him to "change his stance to a plan
that respects the Nago City agreement."


4. (SBU) The only cautious comment from within the conservative
camp came from the coalition's junior member, the Komei party.
On April 10, Komei leader Itosu Tomonori avoided directly
publicly supporting the agreement by stating he wanted to see
how talks between Governor Inamine and Mayor Shimabukuro
progressed, as well as the results of further briefings on the
plan to Nago residents by the GOJ.

Reformists and Media Regroup, Launch Three-Pronged Attack


5. (SBU) The opposition "reformist" parties, joined by the
local anti-base media, have rolled out a three-prong strategy to
counter the agreement by placing their hopes on the Governor's
continued refusal to support the agreement; attacking the plan
itself; and, failing all else, waiting things out until the
Koizumi administration ends and a new leader takes his place.
Currently, the reformists and media are focusing their ire on
the GOJ and Mayor Shimabukuro, with Governor Inamine so far
escaping much criticism (probably because the reformists welcome
his continued refusnik stance). The media have begun touting
the line that Inamine is the true representative of the Okinawa
people and as such has the final decision. At the same time,
the papers have encouraged Inamine to continue his opposition to
the new plan, hoping to bolster him against GOJ and conservative
attempts to get him to change his stance. Among the reformist
leaders, Yonekichi Shinzato, Secretary General of the Okinawa
Social Democratic Party, commented April 10 that the new plan
"does not provide for safety of local residents; it only
strengthens the function of bases in Okinawa." Masaharu Kina,
Chairman of the Okinawa Socialist Masses Party, said "danger
will be increased due to the expansion of the scale of the
airbase. Mayor Shimabukuro broke his public campaign pledge."
Masaaaki Maeda, Vice Chairman of the Okinawa Communist Party,
stated that the Koizumi administration's "hardline" attitude
would only lead to opposition from Okinawans; "the Japanese
government should give up trying to build a new base in
Okinawa." And Shokichi Kina, leader of the Democratic Party in
Okinawa, said Futenma relocation was an issue not just for Nago
City, but for all Okinawans to decide.


6. (SBU) Maverick independent lower house Diet member Mikio
Shimoji told us April 11 that he believed the GOJ, using carrots
and sticks, had forced Shimabukuro to agree - in response to
pressure from DOD on the GOJ to secure local agreement. This
had caused Shimabukuro to make a "hasty decision," said Shimoji.
Shimoji also alleged that Shimabukuro's assistants had been
spreading campaign money around northern Okinawa municipalities,
which had influenced their mayors to support the Nago mayor's
decision.


7. (SBU) Okinawa's two newspapers are doing their best to
discredit Shimabukuro by accusing him "violating" his campaign

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pledge to oppose the previous Schwab-coastal plan. Articles
critical of Shimabukuro state that he originally promised Nago
voters he would reject the "coastal plan," while ignoring
Shimabukuro's oft-repeated campaign statement that he would be
willing to consider a revised "coastal plan." Some anti-base
activists are agitating for the Mayor's recall, but their effort
seems unpromising, since by law a politician cannot be recalled
within the first year of his election.


8. (SBU) Since the V-plan has adjusted flight routes so that
they ostensibly will not pass over residential areas, reformists
and the media are finding it difficult to focus on solely on the
proposed FRF's safety problems and are turning to environmental
and noise issues as reasons to object to the new plan.
Nonetheless, since all five principal mayors from the northern
Okinawa have signed off on the plan, it remains to be seen how
much environmental issues will really resonate with most
Okinawans. In a November 2005 island-wide poll, the largest
reason cited for opposing the October DPRI agreement (74.5
percent) was concern the GOJ had ignored Okinawans' opinions and
forced the "coastal plan" on them - not fear of environmental
damage. When it comes to how local residents in the Henoko area
feel about environmental harm from the FRF, we have frequently
been told by their ward chiefs that they are much more focused
on the economic benefits from the FRF for their communities than
on environmental damage.

Waiting on Governor to Accept Plan?


9. (SBU) With the conservatives and reformists having made
their positions clear, Governor Inamine's isolation within his
own ruling camp has become painfully obvious. Both after
learning of the agreement late on April 7, and again after his
own meeting with Nukaga in Tokyo on April 8, Inamine told
reporters his opposition to the Schwab plan had not changed.
However, he added that he "respected" the agreement, leading
some observers to conclude the governor would not lead an effort
to block the agreement. If the Governor chooses to confine his
actions on Futenma relocation to his current symbolic, personal
protest, it is likely he will continue to have no actual effect
on FRF construction, since few believe Inamine will be called on
to grant planning or survey permits in the short time remaining
before his term ends this December.


10. (SBU) Nevertheless, the GOJ appears to want Inamine to
soften his attitude toward the agreement. Statements by such
influentials as senior LDP figure Taku Yamasaki (who said on
April 8 he "awaits a final decision from Inamine") carry the
impression that without some positive signal from Inamine, the
GOJ will not feel it has gained sufficient Okinawan approval to
claim success on the FRF issue.

Governor and Others Hoping This Not A Final Agreement


11. (SBU) The Okinawa Prefectural Government (OPG) seems to be
hoping that this is not the final agreement, thus allowing the

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Governor to avoid being the stumbling block. Inamine's Chief of
staff, Reiji Fumoto, told us on April 10 that he was sure "this
was not the final plan," acknowledging that if it were the
Governor would be forced to do something. Earlier this year,
Inamine was warned by fellow conservatives not to worsen
relations with the GOJ as this could cut the vital economic
pipeline from Tokyo. Thus Inamine may be hoping the current
agreement will be stopped before any of its ramifications cross
his desk for signature..


12. (SBU) Comment. With a background of some three weeks' worth
of media stories stressing the "wide gap" between the GOJ and
Nago, announcement of the April 8 agreement truly caught most
Okinawans by surprise - the conservatives, pleasantly so. The
reformists and media have been mightily confounded by the
spectacle of five northern mayors blessing the agreement,
belying the reformist line that the vast majority of Okinawans
will never accept Futenma relocation to Henoko. Whether
Governor Inamine will soften his opposition remains to be seen -
but whether he does nor not, Futenma relocation remains likely
to be one of the central issues in this autumn's gubernatorial
election to replace Inamine, with the focus being the future
conservative candidate's approach. The reformist candidate is
virtually guaranteed to reject Futenma relocation within
Okinawa, in keeping with longstanding reformist orthodoxy. End
comment.
REICH