FUTENMA RELOCATION: NAGO MAYOR'S HIGH-WIRE ACT GETS SHAKEN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 NAHA 000079

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: MARR PREL JA
SUBJECT: FUTENMA RELOCATION: NAGO MAYOR'S HIGH-WIRE ACT GETS SHAKEN

REF: A) NAHA 0027; B) NAHA 0024


1. (SBU) Summary: As events appear to be building toward a
"final decision" by the GOJ on the specific location and
configuration of the Marine Corp Air Station (MCAS) Futenma
relocation facility (FRF),the personal negotiation track
between Defense Minister Fukushiro Nukaga and Nago Mayor
Yoshikazu Shimabukuro has become the avenue for seeking local
acceptance for the FRF. While Okinawan FRF proponents are very
satisfied with this track, opponents are not because they fear
Nukaga and Shimabukuro may reach an agreement - their worst
nightmare. In the last two days, tough remarks in Tokyo
attributed to Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, Nukaga, and
Japan Defense Agency (JDA) Administrative Vice Minister Takemasa
Moriya have put more pressure on Nago to agree to the FRF plan.
This public perception could very well make Shimabukuro's
negotiation task more difficult by limiting his ability to make
concessions. End summary.

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Nago Mayor in the Driver's Seat
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2. (SBU) Newly elected Nago Mayor Yoshikazu Shimabukuro has
become Okinawa's lead negotiator on the FRF revision plan and
the lead target for reformist criticism. The reason for both
may lie in the fact that almost all parties recognize that if
Nago officials agree to an FRF proposal it will make it hard for
those who dislike the plan to reject it. Many Okinawans also
feel that if Nago reaches an agreement, it will put pressure on
Governor Keiichi Inamine, possibly forcing him to back away from
his refusenik stance and if not actively support the plan than
at least not actively oppose it. But the Governor's refusenik
stance is part of the reason that the GOJ has turned to
Shimabukuro during these negotiations, because Shimabukuro is
willing to compromise. Shimabukuro has made it clear publicly
and privately that he is not rejecting the plan to relocate MCAS
Futenma to the Henoko area, but rather he opposes any planned
relocation that will put the flight route over residential and
business areas.


3. (SBU) With Shimabukuro taking the lead on negotiations, GOJ
officials apparently believe there is a chance for progress on
the FRF. Shimabukuro told ConGen staff that he received
separate phone calls on March 27 from former Foreign Minister
Nobutaka Machimura and current Environment Minister Yuriko Koike
encouraging him to keep on talking with JDA, but also warning
him not to make a "hasty or easy" decision. Both ministers told
him that there was an internal battle within JDA on the FRF's
location, and that if Shmabukuro kept talking and defending his
position there was a good chance he could get enough of what he
wants to be satisfied. Koike said she was willing to take
responsibility for the environmental issue.


4. (SBU) Nonetheless, Shimabukuro has tried to avoid making a
concrete proposal to the GOJ, in line with an Okinawan
preference for sitting in judgement of proposals from Tokyo
rather than making Okinawan proposals. Sometimes this coyness

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takes on a ludicrous aspect; Shimabukuro told us that for fear
of leaving behind a permanent record of what was acceptable to
Nago, he described moving the runway more out to sea by using
his finger (instead of a pen) to draw a new runway location on a
map. Nago City Vice Mayor Bunshin Tsuematsu, however, offered a
more permanent manifestation of what the city could accept when
he pulled out a map during the Nago City Assembly's question and
answer period in mid-March and indicated what areas would be
acceptable to Nago. Whatever the method, it is clear that a
small shift seaward (on the order of less than 100 meters) is
not acceptable to Nago. Shimabukuro told us he had rejected an
earlier offer to move the runway 50 meters and is pushing for a
400-meter adjustment towards the sea.

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Mayor's Role in Negotiations Causing Some to Squirm
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5. (SBU) Shimabukuro taking the lead in the discussions is
unsettling to some in Okinawa, but for differing reasons.
National Diet member Mikio Shimoji, an opponent of the current
"coastal Schwab" plan, told ConGen that Inamine has to take a
leadership role in order to expedite the Futenma relocation
project, and right now Shimabukuro is working harder than the
Governor. Shimoji complained that since the Governor has the
authority, he should take the initiative and make the
appropriate decision for Okinawa. Leading reformists like
Kantoku Teruya are worried that Shimabukuro and Nukaga might
reach an agreement and are calling for Governor Inamine to take
a leading role - at least as long as Inamine continues to oppose
building the FRF at Camp Schwab. Teruya recently proclaimed he
was worried about the Governor's isolation and asked for the
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to bring him back into the mix.


6. (SBU) The Governor himself appears concerned enough about his
isolation to attempt to repeatedly link his position with that
of Shimabukuro, noting that both oppose the "coastal Schwab"
plan. What Inamine and the reformists invariably omit, however,
is that while the Governor is unwilling to accept anything
outside the original Special Action Committee on Okinawa (SACO)
proposal to build a deepwater FRF, Shimabukuro is willing to
accept a revised version of the "coastal" plan. The Okinawa
Prefectural Government (OPG) is desperate not to acknowledge
that Shimabukuro might be on the verge of agreeing to a
compromise, especially since if the Mayor cuts a deal then
Inamine will be on the spot to either bless it or reject it.
What Inamine will do if Shimabukuro reaches an agreement with
the GOJ is still unclear. Shimabukuro told Polmil specialist
that he believes that despite Inamine's recent statements
against considering the Schwab "coastal" plan or any alteration
of it, if Nago can achieve a workable compromise with the GOJ,
Inamine will, at a minimum, not do anything to stymie the new
plan. In mid-March, Inamine told ConGen that during the 1996
SACO process the GOJ had had close contacts with the OPG, Nago
City, local communities, and fisherman's associations to get a
local consensus. In contrast, Inamine said he was "frustrated
and confused" because of the lack of adequate justification from

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the GOJ for the "coastal plan." OPG Senior Counselor for
Military Affairs Reiji Fumoto told ConGen in early March the OPG
would be willing to look at an alternative plan if the GOJ
proposed one. Also former President of LDP Okinawa and party
advisor Kenjiro Nishida told Polmil chief in mid-March that he
believed Inamine would not oppose an amended FRF plan if the
Nago City mayor accepted it. Nishida said that at some point,
the Governor will officially accept the amended plan because it
will eliminate the danger to Ginowan posed by Futenma.


7. (SBU) The local reformist media is deeply unhappy with
Shimabukuro's leading role because they too fear a
Nukaga-Shimabukuro agreement. In an editorial on March 27, the
Ryukyu Shimpo warned Mayor Shimabukuro against entering the
"sumo ring" of the GOJ, noting that the GOJ did not plan to
compromise. The editorial stated that the "true feelings" of
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi could be seen in his repeated
statements that he had no intention of modifying his fundamental
position on Futenma relocation. Also, the "true feelings" of
the central government were reflected in statements by senior
Defense Agency officials who said that they would not compromise
even once with Okinawans because it would cause locals to expect
further concessions. The Okinawan Times editorial urged
Shimabukuro not to compromise easily and to avoid actively
proposing his own alternative plans to the central government.

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FRF to be Decided By Locals, But Who Defines "Local?"
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8. (SBU) A large stumbling block for the GOJ has been trying to
satisfy all the diverse Okinawan opinions, which even many
Okinawans acknowledge is a Herculean task. Inamine admitted in
his March discussion with ConGen that Okinawan opinions on the
FRF are not unified and that he is in a difficult position,
noting "we Okinawans are facing a difficult phase in the
negotiations and I do not have any good ideas on how to resolve
this tough issue." LDP Okinawa General Affairs Committee
Chairman Toru Oda complained to ConGen that Okinawan Diet
members' lack of unity caused them to be unable to take a strong
stance with the GOJ on the Schwab FRF plan.


9. (SBU) Nonetheless, the definition of who is "local" has
become a hot topic, with those favoring Futenma relocation to
Henoko satisfied to limit "local" to only Nago citizens, or even
only ward residents near Henoko, while opponents insist all
Okinawans are equal stakeholders in the issue. In early March,
Shimabukuro helped the GOJ by publicly commenting that the
"local communities who have a right to pass judgment on FRF" was
limited to just three of Nago's 55 wards, or about 5 percent of
the Nago area population. Inamine told reporters on March 26
that "local" meant all Okinawans, not just Nago/Henoko
residents. The same day on TV Asahi's "Sunday Project"
(equivalent to "Meet the Press") Diet member Mikio Shimoji
echoed the Governor's position, but was contradicted by former
JDA Director General Shigeru Ishiba, who asserted that "local"
means Nago residents only. The Okinawan media, of course, insist

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that all Okinawans need to pass judgment on the FRF plan and on
March 30 both papers highlighted a planned rally by Nago's
neighboring town of Ginoza as evidence of an expansion in "local
concern." The papers gave prominent space to the rally against
the shallow water project set for April 4 and the Higashi
Village Chief statement that "More than just the fact that the
flight route will pass over us, we want to make the 'appeal'
that we also should be considered citizens of communities
surrounding Heneko and, as such, should be consulted on the
matter."

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If All Politics "Local," Then Shimabukuro has Political Backing
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10. (SBU) Shimabukuro does have local electoral backing for his
negotiations according to an NHK exit poll done after his
victory in the January Nago mayoral election. The poll showed
that 59 percent of respondents who backed Shimabukuro either
accepted the plan to relocate MCAS Futenma to Camp Schwab or
some modification of the plan. Also, Shimabukuro was supported
by 60 percent of voters ages 20 to 70 years old. Among LDP and
Komeito supporters, Shimabukuro's support rose to 80 percent.

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Nago Putting Hope in Nukaga and Yamasaki; Moriya Remains A
Source of Distrust
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11. (SBU) In late March, Shimabukuro told ConGen officials that
he thinks very well of JDA Director General Nukaga and that
Nukaga seems to be sincere and undertaking a genuine effort to
achieve a compromise with Nago. Separately, LDP Okinawa
Secretary General Kosuke Gushi told ConGen officials that LDP

SIPDIS
Security Research Council Chairman Taku Yamasaki personally
assured him in mid-March that Yamasaki would be directly
involved in drafting and then pushing a revised FRF plan. The
revised plan would presumably incorporate local requests that
the facility be located further out on Henoko Point, if not all
the way into the shallow water off Camp Schwab.


12. (SBU) Shimabukuro, however, told us he had "no use for [JDA
Administrative Vice Minister] Moriya." He also noted that
someone, possibly Moriya, is giving Nukaga "misinformation,"
telling Nukaga that some wards near Henoko (Abu and Mihara)
"approve" of the current Camp Schwab plan. After hearing this
report, the chairman of the Kanucha Bay Resort (near Abu) met
with Nukaga to personally tell him that he did not want to have
aircraft flying over his resort. One of the Nago City Ward
chiefs also confided to Polmil officer he was worried that
Moriya was intervening and preventing the "true feelings of
Okinawans" from reaching Koizumi.

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Tough Words from Tokyo Putting More Pressure on Shimabukuro
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13. (SBU) News stories on March 29 extensively reported a March
28 meeting between Koizumi, Nukaga, and Moriya, in which Koizumi
called for minimal concessions and for proceeding with the
current plan even if Nago refuses to agree. Press backgrounders
by Moriya after the meeting emphasized that now is the "last
chance" for Nago to agree to the Camp Schwab plan. Perhaps not
coincidentally, Mayor Shimabukuro promptly postponed his
scheduled March 29 meeting with Nukaga, citing the need for
prepare for former Nago Mayor Tateo Kishimoto's funeral on April

2. The funeral itself could become a venue for some Tokyo-Nago
dialogue, since both Nukaga and Aso have announced they will
attend. Note. Shimabukuro is chairman of the Kishimoto funeral
committee. End Note.


14. (SBU) Comment: For the past two weeks, Shimabukuro has been
engaged in a high-wire act in his negotiations with Nukaga. Not
only is he trying to avoid an open break with Inamine, he is
facing increasing media-led calls for him to break off the talks
altogether. To the degree that Nukaga is able to project an
image of understanding and openness to reasonable compromise,
Shimabukuro feels sufficiently protected to continue the
discussions. The most recent hard-line, uncompromising
statements out of Tokyo, however, will undoubtedly make
Shimabukuro's job more difficult if they destroy the public
perception of understanding on Nukaga's part and thereby limit
Shimabukuro's room to maneuver. End comment.
REICH