Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06NAHA253
2006-12-20 08:49:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Naha
Cable title:  

HOW THE LDP MACHINE USED PRE-ELECTION DAY VOTING TO WIN THE

Tags:  JA MARR PREL 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NAHA 000253 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2031
TAGS: JA MARR PREL
SUBJECT: HOW THE LDP MACHINE USED PRE-ELECTION DAY VOTING TO WIN THE
OKINAWA GOVERNORSHIP

REF: NAHA 00243

CLASSIFIED BY: Kevin K. Maher, Consul General, American
Consulate General Naha, DOS.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NAHA 000253

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2031
TAGS: JA MARR PREL
SUBJECT: HOW THE LDP MACHINE USED PRE-ELECTION DAY VOTING TO WIN THE
OKINAWA GOVERNORSHIP

REF: NAHA 00243

CLASSIFIED BY: Kevin K. Maher, Consul General, American
Consulate General Naha, DOS.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) Summary. In the November 19 Okinawan Gubernatorial
election, conservative Governor Hirokazu NAKAIMA beat his rival
candidate reformist Keiko ITOKAZU by over 37,000 votes (347,303
votes to 309,985),in an election that the press was reporting
as too close to call right up to election day. Exit polling on
election day showed Itokazu in the lead by three to four
percentage points. Nakaima's victory was due to the large
number of ballots cast before election day (over 110,000, 16
percent of all votes) and the fact he won an estimated 70-plus
percent of those pre-election day votes. The pre-election day
voting system (PDVS) was established in 2003 as a way of
increasing voter turnout by allowing people to vote up to ten
days before the election. Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)
Okinawa and Komeito Okinawa officials tell us they took
advantage of the system to secure votes for Nakaima by strongly
encouraging supporters to vote early and report back to the
party about who they voted for. LDP Okinawa officials plan to
use the system in future important Okinawa elections but do not
believe the party could apply it successfully in other areas of
Japan. They believe Okinawa's strong interpersonal ties,
concentration of small and medium-sized businesses, and high
voting rate make it uniquely situated to take advantage of the
PDVS. End Summary.

PDVS Established to Increase Voter Turnout~


2. (SBU) In 2003, Japan established a nationwide system in which
voters can vote up to ten days before the actual election day.
Called the Pre-election Day Voting System (PDVS),it allows
voters to use personal reasons such as golf outings, shopping,
spending time with family, and personal vacation as reasons to
vote prior to election day. The voting system was relaxed in
order to reverse the declining voting rate by simply making it
easier for people to vote.

~Benefits Strong Party Organizations ~


3. (C) LDP Okinawa Executive Director General Hiroshi NAKAMATSU

tells us the new system played to the strengths of highly
organized groups in general, and the LDP in particular. Because
of the LDP's strong organizational skills, it was able to
effectively use the pre-election day voting system. Okinawa had
about 110,000 pre-election day votes, too many for a few people
or a small organization to handle. Nakamatsu said at least
1,000 people were needed just to organize and move to the polls
several thousand people a day.

~But Conservatives More than Reformists


4. (C) Komeito Okinawa Chairman Tomonori ITOSU noted that as far
as organizational skills are concerned, reformist and

NAHA 00000253 002 OF 003


conservative parties are about equal. Both camps garnered over
300,000 votes in the gubernatorial election. However, in
getting pre-election day votes, the conservatives had an
advantage. Nakamatsu and Itosu noted that reformist-supporting
organizations were mainly labor and teachers' unions and
government workers. Labor unions could not give their members
time off from work and both union members and government workers
would be required to take their own personal leave time to go
vote prior to election day (which is on Sunday in Japan).


5. (C) On the other hand, many conservative supporters were
businesses that could and did give their workers time off to go
to the polls early. Nakamatsu also said that industry groups
like Kanehide construction, Kokuba construction, and Ryukyu Oil
(former Governor Keiichi INAMINE's company) encouraged their
employees to vote for Nakaima. The companies gave employees
several hours off with the tacit understanding that they would
use this time to go vote for Nakaima. He added that the LDP
political support groups (koenkai) also called supporters and
friends, asking them to vote prior to the election. Itosu said
since most of the people encouraging conservative supporters to
vote were friends and family, the conservative side could easily
confirm who they voted for. They would simply call them and
ask, "You voted for Nakaima, right?" Nakamatsu said that LDP
Okinawa even provided transportation to the polling areas. He
remarked that this was very close to being an election campaign
violation and thus the party only employed it in very important
elections. He also added that the Okinawa Prefectural Police
Department was watching the LDP closely because of this.


6. (C) Komeito's Itosu noted that in the past the reformists had
been helped by bad weather, since their supporters turned out on
election day even if it rained or was cold. However,
conservative supporters tended not to show up if the weather was
bad. In this regard the conservative camp really benefited from
the fact that under the new PDVS conservative supporters had
several days in which they could go vote. Sometime within the
ten pre-election days time period, there had to be one good
weather day.


7. (C) Conservative officials in Nago City, the future
relocation site of Marine Corp Air Station (MCAS) Futenma, were
particularly adept in using the pre-election voting system in
the January 2006 Nago mayoral election, in which over 30 percent
of the votes were cast before election day. Nakamatsu noted
that the Nago LDP in the past had been active in getting people
to use the absentee ballot system and then the PDVS when it was
enacted in 2003. The LDP Okinawa used the lessons learned from
the Nago elections in planning for last month's gubernatorial
election.

Okinawan Environment Suited to Take Advantage of PDVS


8. (C) Our contacts think Okinawa is uniquely suited to take
advantage of the pre-election day voting system. Nakamatsu
thinks the reason the pre-election voting rate was high in
Okinawa is because Okinawa has a lot of small and medium-sized
businesses. Employees at these companies have a closer

NAHA 00000253 003 OF 003


relationship to their bosses than those in large companies and
could be more easily encouraged to vote for a particular
candidate. He noted that even in Okinawa's largest city, Naha,
most of the businesses are small-medium sized companies. Itosu
noted that in big companies, like those in Tokyo, the influence
of a boss on his workers is much less. So even if the company
encouraged workers to vote and gave them time off, many would
just say this is a personal decision and ignore the boss. Itosu
also attributed Okinawa conservative success to the fact that
personal connections are stronger here than in the rest of Japan
and that Okinawans also are more interested in elections than
other prefectures. Okinawa's voting rate has historically been
higher than that of mainland Japan. Itosu said that Komeito
members from other prefectures often are very surprised by
Okinawans' interest level during elections.


9. (C) The impact of the PDVS in this election was significant.
Although election officials do not publicly report the voting
results broken out by election day and pre-election day, our
press contacts and party officials tell us Nakaima received over
70 percent of the PDVS vote. On election day itself, exit polls
indicated that reformist Itokazu led by three to four points.
Clearly it was the early voting that offset Itokazu's election
day lead. Only a well-financed and organized LDP and Komeito
could have pulled this off. One well-informed newspaper editor
here told us the rumor on the street is that each vote for
Nakaima cost about Yen 5,000, which would mean the LDP and
Komeito would have put about Yen 1.7 billion (Dols 15 million at
115 yen/$1) into the campaign, a lot for a local election in
Japan.

LDP To Use PDVS in Upcoming Okinawa Elections


10. (C) LDP Okinawa plans to make use of the pre-election day
voting system in future important elections, such as Ginowan
City mayoral and upper house Diet elections in 2007. The LDP
sees the Ginowan City election as very important because it
wants to have the city that currently hosts MCAS Futenma
announce that it would be satisfied with relocating Futenma to
Nago under the agreed realignment plan as an effective way to
eliminate the "danger" posed by the air station. Nakamatsu told
us the LDP Okinawa already has established a pre-election vote
section to take advantage of pre-election day ballots in these
upcoming races.


11. (SBU) We expect the PDVS to continue to be important in
Okinawa. But given the unique circumstances of the elections
here, it remains to be seen if the national LDP will try to use
this system to its advantage in upcoming elections in mainland
Japan.
MAHER