CONSERVATIVE CANDIDATE NAKAIMA WIN OKINAWA GOVERNOR'S RACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NAHA 000243

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2031
TAGS: JA PREL MARR
SUBJECT: CONSERVATIVE CANDIDATE NAKAIMA WIN OKINAWA GOVERNOR'S RACE

REF: NAHA 0241

CLASSIFIED BY: Kevin K. Maher, Consul General, American
Consulate General Naha, DOS.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) Summary. On November 19, Okinawan voters elected
conservative candidate Hirokazu NAKAIMA over reformist,
anti-base candidate Keiko ITOKAZU as their new governor by a
margin of 5.6 points. Nakaima's victory showed the Okinawan
electorate rejected Itokazu's focus on the elimination of Marine
Corp Air Station (MCAS) Futenma and other U.S. bases from
Okinawa by 2014. Nakaima has publicly stated willingness to
accept within Okinawa a MCAS Futenma replacement facility (FRF).
Nakaima's stress on the need to lower Okinawa's high
unemployment rate - the highest in the nation - and development
of the prefecture's industrial base also resonated well. In
pre-election polling, voters picked the economy as the most
important issue in this election. Itokazu also failed to carry
most of the base hosting communities, including Ginowan city,
which currently hosts MCAS Futenma. However, editors and
reformists refused to admit defeat for her anti-base position,
blaming Itokazu's loss not on her policies but on her late entry
into the race, about a month behind Nakaima. Reformists warned
both the GOJ and USG that the 300,000 plus votes cast for
Itokazu show a large number of Okinawans remain opposed to the
relocation of the FRF within the prefecture. End Summary.


2. (C) Conservative candidate Hirokazu Nakaima won a decisive
victory over reformist, anti-base Keiko Itokazu 347,303 votes to
309,985 votes with a margin of 5.6 points. Also-ran Okinawa
Independence Party candidate Chousuke Yara received 6,220 votes.
Voter turnout, while low at 64.54 percent, was up 7.32 points
from the 2002 gubernatorial race in which Governor Keiichi
INAMINE was elected to his second term.


3. (C) Itokazu's opposition to the relocation of MCAS Futenma
within Okinawa and call for eliminating U.S. bases within the
prefecture by 2014 failed to resonate with voters, including
those in base hosting communities. In Nago City, location of
Camp Schwab and future cite of the V-shaped, two-runway FRF,
Nakaima beat Itokazu by 12 points, 16,090 to 12,537. Ginowan
City, current home to MCAS Futenma, also selected Nakaima over
Itokazu 21,944 to 20,138. Ginowan continued its conservative
streak by electing conservative candidate Atsushin SAKAIMA in a
bi-election for a vacant Okinawa prefectural assembly seat over
the reformist candidate Seigyo ARAKAKI 15,067 votes to 10,940
votes. Among other base hosting communities, Okinawa City and
Kadena Town (Kadena Air Force Base),Onna Village and Kin Town
(Camp Hansen),Ginoza Village (under the flight route of the
proposed V-shaped FRF) and Urasoe City (Camp Kinser) went for
Nakaima. Only the small towns of Chatan Village (Kadena AFB)
and Kitanakagusuku Village (Camp Foster) went for Itokazu.


4. (C) As mentioned in reftel, Nakaima might not be a bed of
roses for the USG or GOJ. Following his victory, Nakaima
reiterated his opposition to the V-plan because it was decided
without input from Okinawans. He also said that he would

NAHA 00000243 002 OF 004


continue Governor Keiichi Inamine's polices, which indicates he
may continue to press for Inamine's proposal to build a
temporary heliport at Camp Schwab. Nonetheless, he maintained
his flexibility by adding he would participate in the
GOJ-OPG-municipal consultations to come up with a plan that
incorporates the voices of Okinawans. Nakaima also publicly
back pedaled on his pledge to eliminate the danger of MCAS
Futenma within three years, saying that he never used the word
"eliminate" and had simply suggested that the GOJ work towards
reducing the danger in three years. The morning after the
election Nakaima told the press that with regard to the FRF
plan, he will consult with the GOJ and the local government of
Nago, and that he will represent the local voice. Since Nago
Mayor Yoshikazu SHIMABUKURO has essentially accepted the FRF
plan, we find this a positive sign.


5. (C) Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito said in the
press that Nakaima's win reflected Okinawans' desire to focus on
the economy. LDP Okinawa said that Nakaima's economic policy
was very concrete and supported by voters and this would help
him to fulfill his public pledge. Komeito Okinawa more bluntly
called Nakaima's win, "a victory of Okinawan people's common
sense." LDP Tokyo also welcomed Nakaima's election. LDP
Headquarters Policy Affairs Research Committee Specialist
Shigenobu TAMURA told us privately that the LDP is comfortable
with Nakaima and believes he will relax his policies post
election and come to support the agreed FRF plan.


6. (C) Itokazu and the reformist parties backing her publicly
blamed her loss on her late entry into the race, about a month
behind Nakaima. Itokazu said her policies did not have time to
reach the voters. Still she emphasized that the more than
300,000 votes that she got showed Okinawans' desire not to have
new base construction on the island. Itokazu's Okinawa
Socialist Masses Party (OSMP) lamented her failure to penetrate
into the floating vote due to the delay in selecting the
reformist candidate. The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) called
the result "unfortunate," saying Itokazu was the best candidate
for the reformist camp, but they did not have enough time. It
added that if there had been another 15 days, Itokazu could have
won. The Socialist Democratic Party, Japanese Communist Party
(JCP) and Jiyu Rengo also decried the loss, but warned the GOJ
and USG not to interpret the election results as Okinawans'
acceptance of the GOJ's policies. JCP and Jiyu Rengo said that
300,000 votes for Itokazu showed that Okinawans did not want new
base construction. Only center-right Sozo cited Itokazu's
policies as the reason for her loss. The party told Okinawans
to accept the result as the result, noted that people put
economic issues ahead of base issues and called on Nakaima to
work to decrease Okinawa's unemployment rate by half.


7. (U) From the start of the campaign, Okinawa's two major
newspapers, the Ryukyu Shimpo and Okinawa Times, portrayed "the
base problem" as the decisive issue in the campaign. They
focused especially on the planned relocation of Marine Corps Air
Station (MCAS) Futenma from urban Ginowan City to rural Henoko,
within Camp Schwab. During a dinner at the Consul General's
residence November 6, eight local journalists complained that
Nakaima and Itokazu rarely strayed from their talking points.

NAHA 00000243 003 OF 004


Two discussed heatedly how best to get Nakaima to reveal more
clearly his position on relocating MCAS Futenma. The consensus
of the journalists was that Nakaima would approve some version
of relocation to Camp Schwab, but his strategic ambiguity
successfully muddied the waters so they could not accuse him of
giving in on this key point.


8. (U) The election day morning Okinawa Times Editorial went so
far as to say MCAS Futenma relocation was the main point of
contention. It pointed out that Itokazu had taken a firm stand
of opposing relocation within Okinawa, and described Nakaima as
criticizing the opposition for being unrealistic. The editorial
threw in non sequiters tying the Koizumi and Abe administrations
to the Bush administration's war on terror, the uncertainty
raised by the resignation of Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld, and
an over-reliance on the US-Japan Security alliance. It ended by
calling people to vote in a manner they would not regret.


9. (U) The two papers did acknowledge that economic issues such
as development funding, unemployment, financial restructuring,
medical care and social welfare programs figured in the race.
Both papers complained of lack of concrete, specific plans by
the two leading candidates for dealing with these issues. A
Kyodo News Service poll taken in early November showed Okinawan
voters put base issues behind economic growth, social welfare
and unemployment.


10. (C) Editorials after the election echoed the reformists'
position that the 300,000 plus votes for Itokazu showed
Okinawans' opposition to a FRF within Okinawa. The Ryukyu Shimpo
admitted that Okinawans had entrusted the Okinawa Prefectural
Government (OPG) to Nakaima because of his economic background
and strong connections with the GOJ. However, it warned that if
the GOJ took this result as a sign to proceed with US military
transformation, it would have misunderstood the will of
Okinawans. The Okinawa Times called on the new administration
to develop concrete policies to revitalize Okinawa's economy,
assessing that voters had selected Nakaima because they put
priority on economic issues and promotion measures. The paper
explained Itokazu's loss as Okinawan voters feeling they were
powerless to resolve the base issue. It also noted that many
Okinawans support Itokazu's policies opposing new base
construction in Okinawa and Nakaima's victory is not a sign that
voters accept US military realignment. The editorial said
Okinawans still want MCAS Futenma relocated outside of Okinawa
and that Nakaima should convey this to both the GOJ and USG.


11. (C) Conservative Nago Mayor Yoshikazu Shimabukuro welcomed
Nakaima's election and asked Nakaima to show "understanding" on
the V-shaped FRF, which the Mayor accepted in discussions with
the GOJ earlier this year. Shimabukuro said he wants to discuss
various policies with Nakaima and the GOJ on northern area
economic promotion measures, medical and welfare policy, and
base issues.


12. (C) Comment. We anticipate that Governor-elect Nakaima,
shortly after his December 10 inauguration, will join the
consultative meetings with the GOJ in order to demonstrate that
he can express Okinawa views to the GOJ and that they are

NAHA 00000243 004 OF 004


listening. We also think he will come around to accepting the
agreed FRF plan, although it remains to be seen if he will try
to place some conditions on that acceptance, as his predecessor
Inamine did with the old SACO plan. It also looks as if Nakaima
is backing away from his pledge to "eliminate" the danger of
MCAS Futenma within three years, although we expect the
reformist camp will attempt to hold his feet to the fire on
this. In any event, we believe that our best approach is to
continue with our position that we have reached agreement with
the GOJ on a good realignment plan for Okinawa that will greatly
reduce the burden of our bases here, that we expect the GOJ to
continue implementing that plan in a timely manner, and that we
look forward to cooperating with the new Governor in doing so.
End Comment.
MAHER