OKINAWA GUBERNATORIAL CAMPAIGN: POSTER SPOT REPORT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NAHA 000238

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/8/2031
TAGS: MARR JA KN
SUBJECT: OKINAWA GUBERNATORIAL CAMPAIGN: POSTER SPOT REPORT

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CLASSIFIED BY: Kevin K. Maher, Consul General, U.S. Consulate
General Naha, U.S. Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (d),(g)




1. (SBU) Summary: The Okinawa Prefecture gubernatorial race
remains too close to call, and the two major candidates are
engaged in a technically illegal unofficial poster campaign.
The reformist parties backing the woman running as their unified
candidate seem torn between self-promotion and getting her
elected. The conservative candidate, meanwhile, is attempting
to simultaneously soften his image and present himself as the
tough alternative to an inexperienced opponent. Pending
large-scale polling over the weekend before the November 19
election, the signs provide a graphic glimpse into campaign
tactics. End summary.


2. (U) A short analytical piece in the November 6 Ryukyu Shimpo
reported the three Okinawa gubernatorial candidates were rushing
to register and affix their official posters to the 2,370
campaign boards erected around the prefecture. An election
official reportedly commented that failing to post one's own
photo before or as soon as one's opponents could be interpreted
as a lack of interest in, or support for, one's own candidacy.


3. (SBU) We have, in fact, noticed that all three candidates
are taking care to post their faces on the official campaign
boards. The reformist parties' unified candidate, National
Upper House Diet Member (Okinawa Socialist Masses Party) Keiko
ITOKAZU, Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito coalition
candidate Hirokazu NAKAIMA, and dark horse Okinawa Independence
Party candidate Chosuke Yara have standard "head shots" on most
of the official boards. The election law prohibits the
candidates from posting campaign material anywhere other than
the official campaign boards. Nevertheless, the unofficial (and
technically illegal) poster campaign between the two major
candidates is heated and entertaining.

Reformists' Chilly Embrace

4. (SBU) Unofficial posters of the parties backing Itokazu
sometimes make no reference to her-or even Okinawa. The
starkest example is the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) "Nihon
wo Kaeru" (Change Japan) poster, which features head shots of
national figures Yukio HATOYAMA, Ichiro OZAWA and Naoto KAN.
Nothing on the poster mentions Okinawa or Itozaku, even
indirectly. Compared to the DPJ, Sozo posters featuring a
3/4-length photo of National Diet Member Mikio SHIMOJI, his arms
raised in victory, seem more supportive of Itokazu. The
poster's text starts, "A Woman Governor," and concludes with

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Sozo's own party slogan, "Okinawa Decides Okinawa's Future."
The Sozo posters have been hit by competing graffiti.
Conservative graffiti, apparently benefiting from inside
information, are stickers in an identical typeface so the
posters read, "A Man Governor, Okinawa Decides Okinawa's
Future." Reformist graffiti, pink stickers that just cover the
conservative graffiti and/or the original text, change the
object to "Governor Keiko."


5. (SBU) Posters sponsored by "K no Kai" (K's Club) more
directly endorse Itokazu, but do not show her solo. One
unofficial poster carrying Itokazu's name and photograph depict
her and her husband posed as if running through a field of
grass. Another depicts Itokazu and reformist Okinawa City Mayor
Mitsuko TOMON, calling for women's unity, but Itokazu's and
Tomon's (heavily retouched) photographs were clearly taken at
different times and assembled in a collage.

Conservative Cuddly with a Mean Streak

6. (SBU) The counterpart to "K no Kai" is "N no Kai" (N's
Club),and its posters for Nakaima generally show him with one
or both of his adult daughters. A journalist told us that
initial posters showing Nakaima with just his second (and
younger) daughter, identifying her as such, had started a
whisper campaign. "Old ladies" were muttering that the elder
daughter must dislike her father, otherwise she would have been
featured. The campaign recently changed the posters so that the
younger daughter is merely identified as "daughter," and added a
poster featuring both daughters. A poster sponsored by the
"Prefectural Peoples' Club" features a cartoon shisa in a suit,
smiling and punching one fist in the air. Note: The shisa is an
Okinawa icon, statues of which are posted on the roofs and
gateposts of Okinawan homes for protection from evil. End note.
The text reads, "Let's choose a decisive, effective, resolute
MAN."


7. (C) On a darker note, two or three groups with variations on
the name "North Korea Study Group" have sponsored a series of
posters calling for vigilance in security matters. The posters
feature a red border on top saying, "Do not permit North Korean
nuclear tests!!" Some of the posters' slogans make sense only
in context, such as, "Abolish the risk-Futenma within 3 Years."
This contrasts Nakaima's promise to stop Marine Corps Air
Station Futenma's functions within a short period of time with
Itokazu's demand to close it immediately, something even many
reformists consider unrealistic. Two other slogans, "An expert
in employment, economics and industry for governor!" and "Is
base opposition alone enough?" contrast Nakaima's bureaucratic,
government executive and industry experience with Itokazu's
life-long anti-military focus.

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8. (SBU) The most openly negative poster we have seen to date
slaps at Itokazu, as well as fallen-away LDP (now Sozo) Diet
Member Shimoji. The text reads, "Chameleon contamination: Three
flip-flops on bases and casinos." Below the text, a cartoon
green whale flashes a toothy grin, an allusion to Shimoji's
smiling orange whale cartoon mascot. Fliers published by the
Prefectural Peoples' Club, stuffed in mail boxes with the
November 8 morning paper, also contrast Nakaima's fortitude with
Itokazu's public policy waffling.


9. (C) Most posters for Nakaima are bright yellow. Recently
Okinawa Defense Facilities Administration Bureau Chief Sato
complained to Consul General Maher that he had advised Nakaima
to drop the color, as it carried leftist connotations. Nakaima
did not take the advice, and we thought perhaps it was to
identify with the Ryukyu Kingdom's golden era of independence
and the rare yellow dye and resulting fabrics that made the
kingdom rich. We have since heard rumors that Nakaima consulted
a fortune-teller who divined that yellow would be his lucky
color for this campaign.


10. (C) During a November 5 gathering of television and
newspaper journalists at the Consul General's residence, their
consensus was that the governor's race was still entirely too
close to call. Perhaps whatever slight edge a lucky color
brings is worth having. The two major Okinawa daily newspapers
plan to carry out large-scale opinion surveys the weekend of
November 11-12, and the journalists themselves seemed keenly
interested to learn the results, which will be released just six
days before the November 19 election.
MAHER