OKINAWA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATES ANNOUNCE PLATFORMS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NAHA 000229

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/18/2031
TAGS: JA PREL MARR
SUBJECT: OKINAWA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATES ANNOUNCE PLATFORMS,
"UNITED" AGAINST FUTENMA REPLACEMENT FACILITY

REF: REFTEL A: NAHA 213, REFTEL B: 227

CLASSIFIED BY: Carmela A. Conroy, Acting Consul General,
American Consulate General Naha, DOS.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) Summary: Recently both Okinawa gubernatorial candidates
have announced their policy platforms, which are long on
aspirations and short on details. Reformist candidate Keiko
ITOKAZU declared her top issue to be opposing the relocation
within Okinawa of Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Futenma, a key
initiative of the 2005 USG-GOJ Alliance Transformation and
Realignment report. She has also called for abrogation of the
US-Japan Mutual Security Treaty and the total elimination of US
military bases from Okinawa. Conservative candidate Hirokazu
NAKAIMA has attempted to turn the debate towards economic
issues, while "fuzzily" opposing the agreed Futenma replacement
facility. Nakaima says he intends to incorporate Okinawan
opinion in renegotiating something new from the GOJ, leaving
open the possibility of relocation within Okinawa. The local
media have declared Itokazu and Nakaima "united" in opposing the
agreed plan. End Summary.

Itokazu Taking Anti-base, Anti-US-Japan Security Alliance Stance~


2. (C) National Upper House Diet Member Itokazu is the
candidate backed by five of six reformist parties: the Japanese
Communist Party, the Democratic Party of Japan, the Socialist
Party of Japan, Rengo Okinawa, and her own Okinawa Socialist
Masses Party. Only Sozo, the party founded by National Lower
House Diet Member Mikio SHIMOJI, has so far refrained from
supporting her, saying it is still studying her platform. In an
October 14 newspaper interview Itokazu clearly stated she did
not recognize the US-Japan Mutual Security Treaty. Itokazu has
also said she was willing to negotiate with the US only if the
US follows its stated policy that "it will not establish bases
where it is not welcomed." Note: This is a reference to a 2003
remark by SecDef Rumsfeld regarding the possibility of building
bases in Iraq. End note. She also claimed, without
elaboration, the United States discriminates against Okinawa by
applying different policies in the prefecture than it does at
home. Itokazu has long advocated closing all military bases in
Okinawa. However, her anti-US-Japan Security Treaty position is
new, as she had previously avoided making direct calls for
abrogating the treaty, calling for it to be "reviewed."

~ And Looking to Eliminate Bases on Okinawa


3. (SBU) Itokazu said she would like to revise the Ota
Administration's action plan, which called for a phased closure
of all US military facilities in the prefecture. Governor
Masahide OTA developed his "Base Return Action Program" in 1996.
Ota's original plan called for a three-step return of US bases,
with facilities like MCAS Futenma being returned in 2001, the
Marine Corps' Camp Courtney and Army's Torii Station in 2010,
and Kadena Air Force Base in 2015. After-use plans were to be
developed in conjunction with the returns, with the end goal of

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establishing a cosmopolitan city with transportation and
information networks linking Okinawa with various Asian nations.


4. (C) Itokazu has not proposed concrete changes to Ota's
action plan, but has suggested that she would maintain the
deadline of 2015 for closing all US military facilities and
establishing a public corporation to deal with returned lands.
She has also called for the immediate closure and return of MCAS
Futenma, and for its functions to be removed from Japan.
Itokazu has also said that she would participate in discussions
of the FRF with the GOJ and municipal leaders, with the express
purpose of opposing any FRF within Okinawa. This deviates from
the previous reformist position that participating in the
GOJ-local talks amounted to tacit acceptance of the V-shaped FRF
plan. The change in the reformist position may be linked to
recent press and reformist criticism that Governor Inamine
failed to convey Okinawans' (anti-base) opinions to the USG and
GOJ during his two terms.


5. (C) Itokazu stated she planned to use the agreed October
2005 Alliance Transformation and Realignment (ATARA) Report as a
step towards returning all base facilities to Okinawan control.
She called for pursuit of the initiatives to transfer 8,000
Marines to Guam and close US bases south of Kadena AFB, while
refusing to accept the link between these measures and the FRF
plan. An October 14 Okinawa Times editorial questioned how
Itokazu would realize these aspirations.

Nakaima Vague on FRF, Focusing on Returned Land After-Use Plans


6. (C) Former vice governor (during the Ota administration) and
Okinawa Electric Power Company Chairman Nakaima told us he
planned to follow the advice of current Governor Keiichi INAMINE
and take a vague stance on base issues. See reftel A. This
would supposedly allow him to show Okinawans he would represent
their best interests by insisting on USG-GOJ plans that
incorporated Okinawans opinions, while still being able to
successfully work with the GOJ. Nakaima announced that he could
not accept the V-shaped FRF plan in its current form. However,
his stated chief objection was that the plan was adopted without
listening to Okinawan opinions, not that he opposed relocating
MCAS Futenma within Okinawa.


7. (SBU) Nakaima has repeatedly stated that while relocating
MCAS Futenma outside of Okinawa would be best, given the
US-Japan Security Treaty and regional security concerns, "there
is no choice but for [MCAS Futenma's] relocation within the
prefecture." He has stated that the base burden on Okinawa must
be reduced, and has indicated interest in Inamine's proposal for
a temporary heliport to be built at Camp Schwab in order to
hasten MCAS Futenma's closure. He has also said he wants to
develop a concrete plan in cooperation with the GOJ to eliminate
the danger of MCAS Futenma within four years. Nakaima has
publicly stated his willingness to attend consultative meetings
with the GOJ and northern municipalities to discuss the V-shaped
FRF and economic promotion measures.


8. (C) Nakaima has been clearer in his plans for developing base

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land being returned in conjunction with ATARA. Nakaima has said
that US land returns represent an opportunity for Okinawa, and
has called on the GOJ to do its duty in helping Okinawans
develop the land. He has also asked for the GOJ to extend the
Okinawa economic promotion special measures law, currently due
to expire around 2011. Nakaima also stated the need to consider
the positions of military landowners and base workers in
formulating his policy. He proposed establishing a land
preservation and maintenance organization to formulate
development plans for returned land.

Economic Policies: Pork All Around


9. (C) Both candidates are campaigning about the economic
goodies they intend to seek for the prefecture, such as adding
another runway to congested Naha Airport, and extending the Naha
monorail and national expressway to the northern part of the
main island. However, Itokazu is attempting to split off
economic promotion measures from the continued US military
presence in Okinawa. Naha Airport's second runway was among the
perks mentioned by the GOJ in November 2005 as a part of
economic promotion measures aimed at facilitating Okinawans'
acceptance of an FRF in Nago City. Senior Liberal Democratic
Party (LDP) politicians like Taku YAMASAKI also mentioned the
plan for a railway extension during the Nago mayoral campaign in
January 2006, with the tacit understanding that it was linked to
Nago accepting the plan to build an FRF at Camp Schwab.


10. (C) Both candidates are touting an increase in Okinawan
tourism as a way to boost the economy. Itokazu's plans have
focused on developing eco-tourism and she has advocated
preserving Okinawa's beaches and water areas. She has also
stated a goal of expanding annual tourism to 8 million visitors.
She has also called for cultural and economic exchanges with
the rest of Asia. Nakaima said he aims to increase tourism to
10 million visitors a year. Note. In 2005 just over 5 million
tourists, over 90% of who were Japanese, visited Okinawa. End
Note.


11. (C) Reducing unemployment is another common goal, and with
Okinawa's unemployment rate perpetually twice the national
average, one that may resonate with voters. Both say they will
eliminate the prefecture's gap between jobs available and lack
of skilled labor need to fill them. Itokazu would also like to
increase employment opportunities for disabled workers. Itokazu
has pledged to create 20,000 new jobs during her term, but
offered no concrete details of how she would accomplish that.
Nakaima has pledged to bring Okinawa's unemployment rate of 7-8
percent down to the national average of 4-5 percent, but also
lacks a detailed plan.

Comment


12. (C) Comment: The success of Itokazu's platform lies in
whether she can convince voters that she as governor could
cherry-pick what she wants of ATARA, and GOJ economic promotion
measures, while opposing the FRF and demanding all US bases in
the prefecture be closed. Currently the GOJ is not explicitly

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linking Okinawa's acceptance of ATARA with economic promotion
measures, which permits Itokazu to use this theme. Still, a
recent editorial questioned how Itokazu planned to make good on
her promises, and a reformist contact told us she was simply
"offering sweets, with no plan on how to get them." Nakaima has
handicapped himself by remaining fuzzy on base issues. His
opposition to the V-plan is letting the media and reformists
press him on whether he would accept an FRF within Okinawa, an
issue he hoped to avoid. Nakaima's attempts to turn the debate
from bases to the economy have been somewhat successful.
However, he appears to have fallen into the trap of allowing the
media and the reformist parties to set the campaign agenda. It
is too early to tell whether the candidates' platforms will
overcome the here-to-for overwhelming attention on the
popularity contest between the polished former peace bus guide
and the rumpled power company executive. End Comment.
CONROY