Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06NAHA227
2006-10-16 08:40:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Naha
Cable title:  

SURVEY OF PAST OKINAWAN POLLS SHOWS INCREASING ACCEPTANCE

Tags:  JA PREL MARR 
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RUHBANB/CG MCB CAMP BUTLER JA
RUHBABA/CG THIRD MARDIV CAMP COURTNEY JA
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
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RHMFISS/COMMARCORBASESJAPAN CAMP BUTLER JA
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NAHA 000227 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2031
TAGS: JA PREL MARR
SUBJECT: SURVEY OF PAST OKINAWAN POLLS SHOWS INCREASING ACCEPTANCE
OF US BASES


CLASSIFIED BY: Carmela A. Conroy, Deputy Consul General,
American Consulate General Naha, DOS.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NAHA 000227

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2031
TAGS: JA PREL MARR
SUBJECT: SURVEY OF PAST OKINAWAN POLLS SHOWS INCREASING ACCEPTANCE
OF US BASES


CLASSIFIED BY: Carmela A. Conroy, Deputy Consul General,
American Consulate General Naha, DOS.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) Summary. In the upcoming November 19 gubernatorial
election, the reformist camp, led by candidate Keiko ITOKAZU,has
made opposing the relocation of Marine Corp Air Station (MCAS)
Futenma within Okinawa and pushing for withdrawal of US bases
from the prefecture its primary focus for the election. However,
a survey of past Okinawan public opinion polls conducted from
1972 to 2006 by the Japanese Cabinet Office, Ryukyu University,
Ryukyu Shimpo, Okinawa Times, the Asahi Shimbun, and NHK reveals
a Okinawan public increasingly accepting of US bases in the
prefecture. The polls also show a growing level of comfort with
Japanese Self-Defense Force (JSDF) bases in Okinawa and
improvement in Okinawa-mainland Japan relations. Still,
differences between Okinawans and mainland Japanese remain, and
many Okinawans still perceive themselves as being non-Japanese.
A small few even advocate Okinawan independence from mainland
Japan. But the past polls suggest that no matter who may become
the next governor of Okinawa, the Okinawan public may be more
receptive to messages explaining the strategic importance of the
US-Japan Security Treaty and US bases in Okinawa than the
Okinawan media and politicians suggest. We will be reporting
septel on the upcoming election prospects, and expect to see
more recent polling in that regard. In the meantime, to help put
the upcoming election in context; following is a review of past
polling trends. End Summary.

Perceptions of the US-Japan Security Treaty and US Bases in
Okinawa


2. (U) Polls show that while US bases in Okinawa remain a top
issue for Okinawans, the issue's prominence does not mean that
most Okinawans are anti-US-Japan Security Treaty or even anti-US
bases. When the Asahi Shimbun asked Okinawans in 1997 what they
thought of when they heard the word "Okinawa," 44 percentage
said "bases." However, in the same poll most respondents, 57
percent, said they supported the US-Japan Security Treaty and 37
percent saw the US military presence in Japan as necessary for

regional stability. In fact, polling suggests that a third of
the Okinawan public may be strongly conservative. In a 2006
Ryukyu Shimpo poll, 31 percent of respondents said that US
military transformation would be a plus for Okinawa, and over a
quarter supported the USG-GOJ plan to build the V-shaped Marine
Corp Air Station (MCAS) Futenma replacement facility (FRF) at
Camp Schwab.


3. (U) While the Japanese Communist Party (JCP) and the
Socialist Democratic Party (SDP) call for the immediate closure
of all US bases, polls indicate that the majority of Okinawans
do not want them immediately closed, and increasingly accept the
presence of US bases. According to NHK polling, those calling
for the immediate closure of US bases fell to 20 percent in
2002, the lowest level in 20 years. Also, Japanese Cabinet
surveys from 1985-2001 showed the percentage of respondents who

NAHA 00000227 002 OF 003


said US bases in Okinawa were necessary or unavoidable for
Japanese security reasons increased from 34 percent in 1985 to
46 percent in 2001. The number of respondents expressing
understanding exceeded those who said US bases were unnecessary
or added to Japan's danger, 44 percent, for the first time in 16
years. NHK polling echoed the same trend, with support for US
bases rising from 26 percent in 1972 to 47 percent in 2002.
Further, Asahi Shimbun polls in 2002 and 2005 noted that over 60
percent of Okinawan respondents felt that US bases were
important to Okinawa's economy. Only six percent of respondents
in the 2005 poll said the bases did not help Okinawa's economy
in any way.

Perceptions of the JSDF and World War II


4. (C) Some reformist contacts have told us that Okinawans fear
the Japanese Self Defense Forces (JSDF) even more than they do
the US military because of the many atrocities by the Japanese
Imperial Army during World War II. However, polling indicates
the opposite. Okinawan support for Japanese Self-Defense
Force(JSDF) bases on island continues to be very high. According
to Japanese Cabinet polling, Okinawans felt JSDF bases in
Okinawa were necessary or unavoidable rose from 55 percent in
1985 to 70 percent in 2001, with almost a quarter in 2001 saying
JSDF bases were necessary. NHK polling from 1975 to 2002
similarly showed those believing in the necessity of JSDF bases
in Okinawa rising from 48 percent to 67 percent.


5. (C) A surprising trend, however, is that Okinawans'
"memories" of the war seem to be growing, even as the numbers of
those who actually experienced the war dwindle. NHK's 1977 poll
found 64 percent of respondents said that they could not forget
the war, but by 2002, 81 percent responded so. 38 percent of
respondents in 1982 said that they had direct experiences with
the war, but only 27 percent of respondents in 2002 had. A 2006
Ryukyu Shimpo poll echoed this point when it broke down
non-support for relocating MCAS Futenma to Camp Schwab by age.
According to the poll, while non-support was high among all age
groups, twenty year olds and those over sixty were the highest
levels of non-support, both over 70 percent.

Okinawans Perceptions of Mainland Japanese:


6. (U) Okinawans feel themselves distinct from mainland
Japanese, which may aid those who couch US military
transformation as part of an ongoing campaign by mainland Japan
to discriminate against Okinawa. A 1973 NHK poll, the year
following Okinawan reversion to Japanese civilian government,
showed only 21 percent of Okinawans felt mainlanders understood
them. That number gradually increased until 1987, peaking at 45
percent. Subsequent NHK surveys showed a downward trend, with
just 35 percent in 2002 saying mainlanders understood Okinawans.
Okinawans believe this misunderstanding is mutual. In NHK
polls, those who said they understood mainland Japanese fell
from a high of 50 percent in 1987 to 37 percent in 2002.


7. (U) In fact, many Okinawans do not think of themselves as
primarily Japanese. Ryukyu University polls in 1996 and 2005

NAHA 00000227 003 OF 003


showed over 40 percent of Okinawans considered themselves
"Okinawan." About a third, 31 percent in 1996 and 37 percent in
2001, said they considered themselves Okinawan-Japanese, while
only 12 and 21 percent, respectively, considered themselves
Japanese. NHK polls showed similar results, with respondents
who had a strong image of being Japanese falling from a high of
29 percent in 1987 to 18 percent in 2002. A small number of
Okinawans even want to be independent from Japan. A 2005 Ryukyu
University poll showed that 25 percent of respondents thought
that Okinawa should declare its independence from Japan, with 20
percent thinking so even if Japan did not recognize Okinawa's
independence.


8. (U) However, Cabinet polls show that Okinawans feel that
relations with mainland Japanese have improved since reversion.
In 1975, 53 percent of Okinawans were skeptical that mainland
Japan and Okinawa could really become one. But by 2001, 73
percent of Okinawan respondents felt mainland Japanese
understanding of Okinawans had improved since reversion. Also
in 1994, 83 percent of Okinawans were positive about reverting
to Japan, up from 69 percent in 1985.


9. (C) Comment: Public perceptions in Okinawa of the bases, and
of relations with mainland Japan, remain complex and it is
difficult to divide Okinawans simply into anti-base and pro-base
camps. We expect to see updated polling on Okinawan perceptions
as the upcoming gubernatorial election approaches. Our initial
assessment is that the election may turn more on image than
policy, which does not bode well for the conservative candidate.
End Comment.
CONROY