Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06NAHA214
2006-09-25 09:01:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Naha
Cable title:  

LDP SEEKING SILVER LINING IN PENDING GUBERNATORIAL RACE

Tags:  MARR PINS JA 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NAHA 000214 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: ABROGATION OF THE US-JAPAN SECURITY TREATY
TAGS: MARR PINS JA
SUBJECT: LDP SEEKING SILVER LINING IN PENDING GUBERNATORIAL RACE

REF: NAHA 209

CLASSIFIED BY: Kevin K. Maher, Consul General, U.S. Consulate
General Naha, U.S. Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NAHA 000214

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: ABROGATION OF THE US-JAPAN SECURITY TREATY
TAGS: MARR PINS JA
SUBJECT: LDP SEEKING SILVER LINING IN PENDING GUBERNATORIAL RACE

REF: NAHA 209

CLASSIFIED BY: Kevin K. Maher, Consul General, U.S. Consulate
General Naha, U.S. Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) Summary: Conservative, pro-US/Japan alliance Okinawans
selected the capable but not particularly popular Hirokazu
NAKAIMA as their candidate for the November prefectural
governor's election, then hoped the anti-alliance reformists
would run two or more candidates and split the opposition vote.
Those hopes were dashed when the reformists coalesced behind
Keiko ITOKAZU, a female national diet member whose pacifist
activities and glamour make her an attractive candidate in
Okinawa. Okinawa LDP leadership plans to capitalize on
Nakaima's executive experience while underplaying his
inclination to support the alliance transformation and
realignment planned by the USG and GOJ. With less than two
months to go to the election, conservatives seem more actively
engaged in hoping for reformist failure than pursuing
conservative victory. End Summary.

Comparing the Candidates

2. (SBU) September 20 Hiroshi NAKAMATSU, Executive Director of
LDP Okinawa, analyzed the gubernatorial race since House of
Councilors member Keiko ITOKAZU has been named the unified
reformist (anti-base) opponent to the LDP candidate, Okinawa
Electric Power (Oki Den) Chairman Hirokazu NAKAIMA. Nakamatsu
was relaxed and smiling at the resolution of the LDP
presidential election, with 69% of Okinawan LDP voters choosing
Shinzo Abe, with the remainder roughly evenly split between the
other two contenders. Nakamatsu stopped smiling as he began
discussing the pending gubernatorial race.


3. (U) Nakamatsu started with the positives, saying Nakaima was
the most capable candidate for prefectural governor since former
governor Junji Nishime. After graduating Tokyo University,
Nakaima entered the Ministry of International Trade and Industry
(MITI). Following a career with MITI he moved to Okinawa to be
an executive director of Oki Den. In 1990, Nakaima was
appointed as a vice governor under the reformist Ota
administration. Then he returned to Oki Den as a vice
president. He has served as a chairman of the Federation of

Okinawa Prefecture Economic and Business organizations.


4. (C) Nakamatsu's only direct mention of Nakaima's negative
points was his lack of contact with ordinary people. Nakamatsu
indirectly alluded to some other concerns, however. He lamented
that a man visibly showed signs of a drinking problem,
especially once he reached a certain age. A younger woman, in
contrast, looked fresh and untainted. Nakamatsu said he was
struggling with how to attract women to support Nakaima, and
asked in apparent sincerity whether the pol-mil chief, as a
woman, had any good ideas. Note: Numerous conversations with
politically knowledgeble Okinawans over the past six months have

NAHA 00000214 002 OF 003


drawn a darker picture of Nakaima. He is directly and
scathingly critical of others' failings, especially when he has
been drinking. Now widowed, he long had a reputation as a
womanizer. End note.


5. (C) Nakamatsu went into greater, and gloomier, detail about
Nakaima's weakness as a candidate when compared to Itokazu.
Politics had more to do with popular appeal than with ability,
Nakamatsu said, and thus Itokazu would be a formidable opponent.
Compared with the 71 year-old Nakaima, 58 year-old Itokazu is
quite attractive. She is much closer to the common people
because of her constituent outreach for 12 years as a
prefectural assembly member and the past two years as a national
diet member. Itokazu's peace movement activities and human
rights campaign were well-regarded, and all contributed to her
high name recognition. For more details on Itokazu, see reftel.



6. (SBU) Nakamatsu groaned that every candidacy needed a bumper
sticker, and he could think of none for Nakaima. Itokazu, in
contrast, was ripe for packaging and Nakamatsu rattled off three
or four examples of snappy, four-character sayings playing on
her name, popularity, and pacifist background.

Comparing Platforms and Hoping for Reformist Implosion


7. (SBU) Nakamatsu noted it took reformists nearly six months
to choose a unified candidate. Heated arguments generated ill
will between the parties, and restoring relations would be
difficult. In particular, former OPG treasurer Tokushin
YAMAUCHI was unhappy about being pushed off the campaign stage
by his own protigi, which ended the prospect of any future
Yamauchi candidacy.


8. (SBU) Since the three most leftist of the six reformist
parties (the Japanese Communist Party, the Jiyu Rengo, and the
Socialist Party) had been forced to give up on their preferred
candidate, Nakamatsu predicted they would insist on a strongly
anti-base platform. Since the Democratic Party of Japan and
independent National Diet Member Mikio SHIMOJI's Sozo Party
would not, for example, support a platform that included
abrogating the US-Japan Security Treaty, the platform fight was
the next serious challenge to reformist unity. Nakamatsu hoped
the losers in the platform fight would detract from Itokazu's
chances by withholding their active support. Note: September
23-24 press reports indicated Nakamatsu's hopes may not be in
vain. Shimoji was quoted as saying he would not decide how Sozo
would support Itokazu until after the reformist platform
discussions are complete. End note.


9. (C) Regardless of the platform's details, the reformist camp
would try to make military base issues the center of the race.
Social welfare, medical and educational issues would follow at
some distance. The reformists hoped to directly engage Nakaima
on the issue--which Nakamatsu said would be death for his
campaign. No candidate could be elected governor of Okinawa,

NAHA 00000214 003 OF 003


Nakamatsu claimed, without saying there were too many bases and
the burden on Okinawa must be reduced. Thus, Nakamatsu said
Nakaima could not officially embrace the agreed Marine Corps Air
Station Futenma Relocation Facility (FRF) during the campaign.


10. (C) Current Governor Keiichi INAMINE has previously stressed
this same point. August 28 Inamine told us the acceptability of
base-related initiatives depended on whether the Okinawan public
perceived them as originating in Okinawa, or being pushed down
from Tokyo. The FRF had been conceived in Tokyo. For Okinawa
conservatives to embrace the FRF plan, Inamine insisted, would
all but guarantee the reformists the governorship. On September
11, Nakaima told us he planned to follow Inamine's advice and
maintain a vague stance in public on the question of U.S. base
realignment in Okinawa, simply repeating that he would listen to
all views before making a decision to support or not the
realignment plan.


11. (C) Nakamatsu said the conservative side would place the
highest priority on economic issues for the election, followed
by social services and welfare. Base issues would be listed
below education and welfare. This varied slightly from what
Nakaima had told us, that he considered preserving and promoting
Okinawan culture, environment, education and health issues his
main focus. Economic development would come second, because
money is a necessary tool to achieve the primary goals. Nakaima
said base issues could not be avoided altogether, but he would
stress that there are many other issues that must be dealt with
if Okinawa is to move forward.


12. (C) Comment: Conservative Okinawans drew great comfort from
the reformists' squabble over the gubernatorial candidate, and
almost stunned by the arrival of the worst-case scenario:
reformists united behind Itokazu. The conservative strategy is,
well, conservative: emphasizing Nakaima's credentials, creating
an awareness of his love for things Okinawan, while masking his
support for alliance transformation and realignment. The
conservatives will have to overcome their shock, and Nakaima
activate his campaign, to defeat the reformist challenge. At
the moment, the LDP leadership in Okinawa continues to be
unwilling to confront the reformists on the importance of U.S.
bases for Japan's national security, nor is it willing to stand
up and argue the benefits to Okinawa of the base realignment
plan agreed to by the U.S. and Japanese governments. Instead,
the LDP hopes to avoid debating base issues in the campaign. We
very much doubt they will be able to do so. End Comment.
MAHER