OMAN FM UPDATE ON IRAN, GULF SECURITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MUSCAT 001015

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA, NEA/IR, NEA/ARP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2021
TAGS: PREL ELNT EWWT EPET XF IR MU
SUBJECT: OMAN FM UPDATE ON IRAN, GULF SECURITY


Classified By: Ambassador Gary A. Grappo. Reason: 1.4 (b, d).

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Summary
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1. (C) In a June 20 meeting, FM Yusuf bin Alawi again voiced
optimism that Iran would respond positively to the West's
latest offer, but noted that several Arab states were angry
that details on security assurances to Iran were not
discussed with them first. He sees a 1987 Security Council
resolution as already giving the UN a role in Gulf security,
and described GCC contingency thinking on how to alleviate
any blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. The Minister showed no
sign of undertaking a diplomatic mission to Iran as requested
by the GCC. End summary.

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Iran Eager for Deal
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2. (C) In a June 20 call by the Ambassador, Minister
Responsible for Foreign Affairs Yusuf bin Alawi provided
further insights on Omani and GCC attitudes toward Iran. The
Minister was still optimistic that Iran would not "waste the
opportunity" of the USG's latest offer, saying that National
Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani was due to see EU
Foreign Policy Representative Javier Solana in the coming
days and appeared determined "to strike a deal." Asked about
Khamenei's attitude, Bin Alawi quickly replied, "He should
listen to Larijani!" The Minister's policy advisor Mohammed
al-Hassan then chimed in, "He (Khamenei) does."

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Arabs Angry at Lack of Prior USG Consultation
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3. (C) Turning to the GCC, Bin Alawi warned the Ambassador
that some of the member states and others remain unhappy with
the USG for failing to consult on the regional security
aspects of the EU offer to Iran. He said Bahrain in
particular appeared vexed, though he assured that Oman has
complete confidence that Washington and London understand its
security requirements. Having recently been in Jordan, the
Minister confided that King Abdullah was also upset at the
USG's failure to provide prior consultation, being
particularly alarmed at the growing Syria-Iran axis. Bin
Alawi told the king to have faith that any deal worked out
with Iran would be comprehensive and not focus only on the
Gulf. He nevertheless sees the need for closer USG
consultations.

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UN Already Empowered to Engage on Gulf Security
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4. (C) The Minister also cited UNSCR 598 (1987),which
brought an end to the Iran-Iraq war, as providing a ready
basis for UN involvement in promoting security arrangements
in the Gulf. (Note: Point 8 of the Resolution states: "(The
Security Council) further requests the Secretary-General to
examine, in consultation with Iran and Iraq and with other
States of the region, measures to enhance the security and
stability of the region." End note.) The Minister said Iran
aspires to be a regional power. To achieve that status, it
must have dialogue with the U.S. and, presumably, return to
the foreign policy practices of the former Shah. The
Minister sees such an evolution as a major achievement. "If
Iran is brought into the fold (of the regional community),
then the Revolution is over! This is inevitable."

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Contingencies for Strait of Hormuz
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5. (C) The Ambassador noted that a recent meeting of GCC
Transportation Ministers reportedly discussed security in the
Strait of Hormuz, and asked for details. Bin Alawi replied
that no plan was developed, but rather there were simply some
expressions of concern as to what might happen were
navigation to be disrupted in the Strait. He said the GCC
members continue to discuss a number of proposals, including
possibly building a rail line between Oman and the northern
Gulf, and "linking water networks." (Note: Although this is
the first we have heard of it, Bin Alawi said the water
linkage project is already "half-way complete." He noted
that Kuwait is most vulnerable and therefore most eager to
see it finished; we presume the plan is to somehow link GCC
desalination production. End note.) Talk of an oil pipeline
to Omani ports on the Arabian Sea continues to circulate, as
it has "since the 1970's." Bin Alawi said Oman would
certainly welcome an oil pipeline, but said such a GCC
decision would be purely political because it would never be
justifiable on economic grounds. The Minister added,
however, "I personally do not see any threat to blocking off
the Strait of Hormuz."

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No Imminent Travel to Iran
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6. (C) Asked if there were any other "developments" in
Oman-Iran relations (the GCC has urged Bin Alawi to travel to
Tehran as a special envoy),the Minister replied there was
"nothing new." He plans to begin his summer holidays at the
beginning of July for about two months. He gave no
indication of being any closer to satisfying the GCC's
request.
GRAPPO