AL MOSUL FREE LIST DISAPPOINTED BY ELECTION LOSS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSUL 000006

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/1/2016
TAGS: PREL PINS PGOV PHUM IZ MARR PINT
SUBJECT: AL MOSUL FREE LIST DISAPPOINTED BY ELECTION LOSS

REF: MOSUL 204

CLASSIFIED BY: H. Carl Gettinger, Team Leader, Provincial
Reconstruction Team Ninewa, State.
REASON: 1.4 (a),(b),(d)



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SUMMARY
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1. (C). REO Poloff met with Shammar Sheikh Nayif Al Faysal of
the Al Jerba tribe in Mosul on February 1, to discuss election
results, compensatory seat awards, and the upcoming provincial
election. Al Faysal is disappointed that his brother Sheikh
Khlaid Al Faysal's Al Mosul Free List (#639) coalition did not
do better, claiming an unintentional splintering of the Shammar
took votes away from MFL. He also implicates leading
coalitions, Tawafoq Iraqi Front (#618) and the Kurdistani
Gathering (#730),with "manipulating the vote" to either
frighten voters away for religious reasons, as in Tawafoq's
case, or committing fraud. Al Faysal is upset MFL did not
receive a "promised" compensatory seat, which he claims were
divided up amongst "Shiite parties in Baghdad." Al Faysal said
government corruption and negligence is leaving Western Ninewa,
especially Tal Afar, out in the cold. He believes the area will
"heat up again" if something is not done to address problems
there soon. End Summary.

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ELECTION RESULTS AND IRREGULARITIES
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2. (C) Al Faysal is disappointed by results from the December
national election, but is still somewhat encouraged by his
brother's performance given the many disadvantages the Al Mosul
Free List (MFL) faced financially (reftel). Al Faysal believes
that although MFL finished just shy of qualifying for a seat,
MFL lost votes for many reasons. He admitted Sheikh Ghazi Al
Yawr's National Iraqi List (#731) took some Shammar votes away,
but claims MFL was hardest hit by a splintering of the Shammar
vote, especially among members of the Al Jerba tribe who had
five candidates on different lists on the Ninewa ballot. For
example, he said cousin and ninth place finisher Nawaf Sa'ud of
the Lana Al Ghadd Advertising (#788) coalition took almost
10,000 votes from the Shammar. Al Faysal said Sa'ud, who is
married to a member of the Saudi royal family, used 3 million
dollars of his own money to run in the election, far outspending
many other groups. But had the two groups joined together,
claims Al Faysal, they would have had over 22,000 votes and
could have possibly gained a seat from the province.

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FOUL PLAY BY POWERFUL PARTIES
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3. (C) Splintering of the community was not the only factor
that impacted MFL's ability to win votes, according to Al
Faysal. He insists foul play by the much larger Tawafoq Iraqi
Front (#618) and Kurdistani Gathering (KG) (#730) "really made
the difference" in Ninewa. Al Faysal accuses Tawafoq of
"working with the mosques," by telling voters they would "sin"
if they voted for anyone else; a claim made by Kurd and
Christian parties as well. He said KG, with the power of the
Peshmerga, had troops on the ground "voting in multiple
locations," and "harassing Arabs and others" to keep them away
from the polls. Al Faysal claims the latter's activities
contributed to a "very high rate" of blank and invalid or
"overvotes." [NOTE: Ninewa had almost 20,000 blank and
overvotes, second only to Baghdad. By percentage only two
provinces, Salahaddin and Baghdad, had slightly higher rates of
blank and overvotes, edging out Ninewa's 2.1 percent, by 2.3 and
2.2 percent, respectively.]


4. (C) Al Faysal believes the total number of voters in the
province (942,000) was "200,000 more than actually voted." He
said that in strong Arab areas in Western Ninewa, such as Zumar,
Rabiya, and Sununi, MFL received "virtually no votes," contrary
to what he claims are the demographic realities on the ground.
Al Faysal believes Kurds "stole votes" in these areas by "making
void" votes for non-Kurd coalitions. He said MFL submitted a
formal complaint to the Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq
(IECI),but Al Faysal said the response claimed tests were done
but no major irregularities had been found; REO did not see a
copy of the response letter. Regarding compensatory seats, Al
Faysal said he is most disappointed, however, that MFL did not
receive a compensatory seat. He claims President Jalal Talabani
told him MFL "would receive a seat," but Al Faysal claims that
promise was lost when high-ranking Shiite officials in Baghdad
decided to "take the seats for themselves."

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PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS
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5. (C) Al Faysal believes no one will perform better than
Tawafoq during the upcoming provincial election. He said KG
would do well also, but claims Tawafoq is "gaining ground," and
receiving support from rival groups, such as Shiite, Turkmen,
and Shabbek political parties. Al Faysal said non-Kurd groups
want to "do everything possible" to control the provincial
government, since they were "not allowed to take part before."
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RECONSTRUCTION
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6. (C) Regarding reconstruction efforts in Tal Afar, Al Faysal
claims the area is "heating up again," now that projects have
"come to a standstill." He faults the Iraqi Transitional
Government in Baghdad for not taking more seriously work in the
area. Al Faysal even went as far as to implicate his cousin,
Ghazi Al Yawr, with working to ensure friends from contracting
companies received special contracts for rebuilding in Ninewa.
For example, Al Faysal said Al Yawr "helped make sure" one
company received a contract to refurbish the Al Kissik military
base, "damaged by looters after liberation," but at costs he
claims were well above earlier estimates to repair it.
GETTINGER