Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MOSUL54
2006-05-27 13:27:00
CONFIDENTIAL
REO Mosul
Cable title:  

NORTHERN IRAQ: NINEWA REACTION TO NEW IRAQI GOVERNMENT

Tags:  PREL PINS PINT PGOV PHUM IZ MARR 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO0014
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHIHL RUEHKUK
DE RUEHMOS #0054/01 1471327
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 271327Z MAY 06
FM REO MOSUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0489
INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUEHLU/AMEMBASSY LUANDA 0079
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0062
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0066
RUEHMOS/REO MOSUL 0508
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSUL 000054 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/27/2016
TAGS: PREL PINS PINT PGOV PHUM IZ MARR
SUBJECT: NORTHERN IRAQ: NINEWA REACTION TO NEW IRAQI GOVERNMENT

MOSUL 00000054 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Cameron Munter, PRT Leader, Provincial
Reconstruction Team Ninewa, State.
REASON: 1.4 (a),(b),(d)



-------
SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSUL 000054

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/27/2016
TAGS: PREL PINS PINT PGOV PHUM IZ MARR
SUBJECT: NORTHERN IRAQ: NINEWA REACTION TO NEW IRAQI GOVERNMENT

MOSUL 00000054 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Cameron Munter, PRT Leader, Provincial
Reconstruction Team Ninewa, State.
REASON: 1.4 (a),(b),(d)



--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Views from Ninewa political, tribal, and government
officials on the new -- and permanent -- Government of Iraq vary
according to ethnicity. The Shiite community is overwhelmingly
upbeat, the Kurds more pragmatic, with Sunnis feeling a bit
disaffected and minorities somewhat despondent. Despite such
sentiments, all sides believe there is some hope that the new
government will bring stability. How effective the new GOI will
be dealing with security, especially militias, remains
questionable. End Summary.

--------------
MEASURED VIEWS OF THE FUTURE
--------------


2. (C) Views from Ninewa political, tribal, and government
officials on the new -- and permanent -- Government of Iraq
appeared measured. Sunni politicians, especially
representatives from Saleh al-Mutlaq's Al Hewar (National
Dialogue) coalition, were not pleased with the shape of the new
GOI. Provincial spokesman Musadeq al-Chalabi anticipated the
government would undergo many changes over the next few years
given the enormous tasks it needed to accomplish. He said more
"relevant" ministry posts were not offered to Al Hewar, but that
the coalition planned to continue engaging the new government
constructively. "The powerful coalitions, like the Kurds and
Tawafoq, pressured for important ministries and marginalized
us," said al-Chalabi. Sunnis from Tal Afar were even more
pessimistic. Dr. Yashar Abdullah Mahmoud of Turkoman Front and
Sheikh Mahmoud Ibrahim al-Qado, leader of the Khowerit tribe,
claimed the new GOI was still comprised of "foreigners" and not
"real Iraqis." They said former Prime Ministers Chalabi and
Ayad Allawi (although the latter was deemed "acceptable") had

lived too long overseas and were out of touch with the people.
There were "more qualified" Iraqis who were not participating in
the process, and any reasonable success would be measured, they
said.


3. (C) Less pessimistic, however, was Tawafoq coalition members
from the Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP). Dr. Adeep Chalabi said a
little more than half of Iraqis approved of the GOI, but that
the new government would be only moderately successful. Chalabi
claimed most capable Iraqis were either killed in wars or fled
the country, and therefore there was a dearth of truly qualified
candidates. The key to success, according to Chalabi, was to
allow these remaining "qualified Iraqis" to take part in
rebuilding the country, even if they were members of the former
regime. Chalabi said the new GOI must ensure that Iranian
influence, especially in southern Iraq, was marginalized and
Iraq's borders protected.

--------------
MAJOR PLAYERS MORE UPBEAT, BUT "REALISTIC"
--------------


4. (C) The Kurds in Ninewa appeared more pragmatic over the
success of the new GOI. National assemblyman and member of the
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) Abdelbari al-Zebari admitted
there would never be 100 percent approval that the new GOI would
do a good job. He believed 70 to 80 percent of Iraqis would
approve since the process involved all the major coalitions.
Manaf Hassan of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) echoed
Kurdish sentiment in the province when saying any majority
should be entitled to control the most seats. For that reason
the Shia were "entitled" to form the new government, he said.
Hassan admitted that without pressure from the USG and
international community minorities would have received fewer
ministry posts. But the distribution of ministries was 90
percent fair, he said. Shia political representatives were more
upbeat. Aref Yousef of the Supreme Council for Islamic
Revolution of Iraq (SCIRI) said the process of forming the new
GOI was demanding but fruitful. He believed Shia leaders in
Baghdad were able to gain vast consensus on the shape of cabinet
posts, and that minority groups and the Sunni National Dialogue
coalition asked for posts much larger than their electoral
share. Yousef said that with Coalition Forces assistance the
new GOI would bring stability to Iraq. The biggest question was
when security would be turned over to Iraqi Security Forces, he

MOSUL 00000054 002.2 OF 002


said.

--------------
MINORITIES DOWNBEAT: WANT LARGER ROLE
--------------


5. (C) Minority responses towards the new government were a mix
of frustration and despondency. Saeed Batoosh of the Yezidi
Movement for Progress and Reform (YMPR) said the party wanted
the GOI to respect the rights of minorities. Batoosh said
although YMPR members were disappointed they did not gain a
ministry post, most of the ministers selected were qualified and
secular. YMPR hoped future negotiations would eventually allow
minorities to play a larger role in the political process, he
said. Dinkha Patros of Beth Nahrain Patriotic Union, a
Chaldo/Assyrian party, seemed encouraged by new prime minister
Nouri al-Maliki's promises to dissolve militias, calling it a
"good indication" of a strong agenda. But minorities and
smaller political parties were "still marginalized," he said.
Edmon Youkhana of the Assyrian Democratic Movement (ADM)
concurred saying the new government overwhelmingly favored
"sectarian powers," such as the Kurds, Shia, and Sunnis.
Youkhana claimed all minorities -- and even some Sunnis -- were
left out of the process. Yousef Muharam of the Shabek
Democratic Assembly said although SDA was a member of the Shia
Coalition, SDA reps admitted minorities had been ignored during
government negotiations.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


6. (C) As PUK rep al-Zebari notes, there might never be
consensus over the shape and form of the new GOI, although it is
an encouraging sign that all major political coalitions are
peacefully able to negotiate a government. Some Sunni Arab
groups, albeit new to the process, might never be satisfied
since losing their hold on power after the fall of the former
regime. But it is uncertain how much influence groups such as
Al Hewar have over the Sunni population. At least, as
al-Chalabi says, Al Hewar will continue working with the new
government. Minorities, on the other hand, believe they are
left out of the process. Several, such as Youkhana from ADM,
believe the Kurds and other larger coalitions are actively
working to keep minorities from playing a larger role. Whether
such sentiments are true or, as is more likely, a bit
embellished still does not help to address the very real problem
of adequate minority representation in the new parliament by
smaller parties outside the larger coalitions. Political reps
from Ninewa say whatever form the new government takes they all
hope it will help bring stability and security to the country
and the province. This, at least, is a form of optimism.
MUNTER