NINEWA VIEWS ON CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FORMATION AND SECURITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSUL 000050

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/19/2016
TAGS: PREL PINS PINT PGOV PHUM IZ MARR
SUBJECT: NINEWA VIEWS ON CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FORMATION AND SECURITY

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CLASSIFIED BY: Jerome P. Hohman, IPAO, Provincial Reconstruction
Team Ninewa, State.
REASON: 1.4 (a),(b),(d)



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SUMMARY AND COMMENT
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1. (C) Reaction by Ninewa's political representatives and
government officials towards the formation of a new central
government in Baghdad is best described as cautiously
optimistic. While there is some finger pointing as to why the
process has taken so long (over six months) with no agreement,
the general consensus is a desire for economic and political
security, and providing of basic services, such as water and
electricity. Areas of greatest concern -- such as adequate
minority representation and the equitable distribution of
ministerial posts -- remain locked in ethnic strife, with the
Kurds and Shia being accused by Sunni Arabs and minorities of
not doing enough to resolve the problem. Varying ethnic groups
and political parties in Ninewa claim the events in Baghdad and
the lack of a central government negatively impacts the security
situation in the province. End Summary and Comment.

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VIEWS ON GOVERNMENT FORMATION IN BAGHDAD
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2. (C) Political party and government representatives from
Ninewa remain cautiously optimistic that a solution would be
found for the current impasse over the central government
formation in Baghdad. Depending on party affiliation or
ethnicity, views as to how ministerial positions have been
settled varied greatly. Major political coalitions, especially
the Kurds and Shia, believed that the process so far had been
fair and equitable. Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) provincial
spokesman Mehdi Herki and Aref Yousef of Supreme Council for
Islamic Revolution of Iraq (SCIRI) believed differences between
political entities and ethnicities have been overstated. Yousef
said although Iraqis were not accustomed to living without a
government for so long, there were no indications that problems
between the Kurds, Shia, and Sunni were too serious. He said
Iraqis have shared a long history of reconciling and working
together for the common good. Patriotic Union of Kurdistan
(PUK) national assemblymember Abdelbari al-Zebari, who has spent
the past three weeks participating in negotiations in Baghdad,
remained optimistic that problems over the new government
formation would be solved on time by May 22.


3. (C) National assemblymember from Al Hewar (National
Dialogue) coalition Mahmoud al-Azzawi believed the process has
not been fair. He said it was dangerous to offer both the
presidency and the foreign affairs ministry to the Kurds, for
example, because it would give too much power to one group. He
claimed if the current situation were not solved soon it would
cause problems for the future of the country. Al-Azzawi said
there were still some obstacles in the way to forming the new
government, namely the lack of compromise over the posts of
defense and the interior. Ministerial posts had not been
distributed among qualified candidates, he claimed, but rather
on a sectarian basis. Adeep al-Chalabi of the Iraqi Islamic
Party (IIP) claimed politicians in Baghdad were only focusing on
their own self-interests and not the nation as a whole.

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ADEQUATE REPRESENTATION OF MINORITIES UNCERTAIN
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4. (C) Given Ninewa's large minority population, politicians
and government officials from all ethnicities in the province
had differing opinions about minority representation in the new
government. Shabek Democratic Assembly (SDA) national
assemblymember Dr. Haneen al-Qado (who is a member of United
Iraqi Alliance) agreed that ministerial posts had been fairly
addressed. However, more could be done to ensure minority
groups outside the major coalitions had more representation, he
said. Al-Zebari of PUK said there were plenty of minorities
that joined with larger coalitions and now were candidates for
ministry positions, such as the Yezidi, Turkoman, and Shabek.
Therefore, any grumbling by smaller parties that the process was
not fair or democratic was unfounded, he said. Provincial
council and Assyrian Democratic Movement (ADM) member Gevara Zia
and Saed Rasho of the Yezidi Movement for Progress and Reform
(YMPR) adamantly disagreed with al-Zebari's assessment. Zia
claimed Christians and other minorities, as well as Sunni Arab

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coalitions, were not invited to take part in the formation of
the new government. He accused the Kurdish and Shia coalitions
of bargaining behind the scenes. Rasho claimed the lack of
representation was depriving minorities a voice in the new
government.

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SECURITY IN NINEWA AFFECTED BY EVENTS IN BAGHDAD
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5. (C) Political and ethnic groups in Ninewa unanimously
claimed that the lack of a central government was having a
negative impact on the security situation in the province.
Yousef of SCIRI believed Mosul was connected to Baghdad
intrinsically, since Ninewa was one of Iraq's most populous
provinces. Mosul was receiving the brunt of tensions from the
impasse over the new government formation, he said, but this was
a temporary problem that would be solved soon by the presence of
a permanent government. Overwhelmingly, Sunnis, Shia, Kurds,
and minority groups called for disbanding militia groups as the
first step by any new government in Iraq. Henri Sarkis Alyas of
the Assyrian Patriotic Party, Yousef of SCIRI, and Rasho of YMPR
said militias should be disbanded and its personnel merged with
Iraqi security forces. Al-Chalabi of IIP, al-Qado and SDA, and
Zia of ADM said security forces should be comprised of residents
from villages and towns they were assigned to protect.
Al-Chalabi even called for the incorporation of former Baathist
military who did not have "blood on their hands" into the
security forces. Yousef said more work would need to be done to
enforce the rule of law and to purge the government -- at all
levels -- of corruption. Once the government was formed, the
security situation would be solved, and the government could
begin its job of providing basic services, such as electricity
and water, to the people of Iraq, said al-Zebari.

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COMMENT
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6. (C) While no specific group will ever be happy with the
outcome in Baghdad, differing political party contacts in Ninewa
anticipate that some sort of solution would come about from
negotiations in Baghdad. They see problems in Baghdad
contributing to violence and unrest in the province, as well as
affecting resident's ability to receive basic services. While
adequate representation of minorities in the new government
remains a concern for many in Ninewa, the message from our
contacts is very clear: the hope that a permanent central
government can help create security and stability in Iraq.
GRANT