NINEWA: PUK NATIONAL ASSEMBLYMEMBER CONFIDENT IMPASSE OVER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSUL 000046

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/14/2016
TAGS: PREL PINS PINT PGOV PHUM IZ MARR
SUBJECT: NINEWA: PUK NATIONAL ASSEMBLYMEMBER CONFIDENT IMPASSE OVER
GOVERNMENT FORMATION WILL BE SOLVED SOON

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CLASSIFIED BY: Cameron Munter, PRT Leader, Provincial
Reconstruction Team Ninewa, State.
REASON: 1.4 (a),(b),(d)



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SUMMARY
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1. (C) PUK national assemblymember from Ninewa Abdelbari Al
Zebari is an optimist. On a recent visit to Turkey with PUK
colleagues for talks with members of the Turkish parliament, the
delegation was told -- repeatedly -- that the Iraqis should "get
accustomed" to the idea of working with the Turks, since the
U.S. was leaving soon. But such sentiments from long-time
Turkish adversaries cannot sway his belief that the USG will
always stand by Iraq, claims Zebari. He views the current
impasse over government formation in Baghdad as a positive
event, one that will humble the Shia coalition and remind them
that they are not the only political group with power in the
country. He says cracks are visible in the Shia coalition and
that the day is near when Prime Minister Ibrahim Al Ja'afari
will withdraw his candidacy, freeing up the Shia nomination to
better suited candidates such as Abdul Al Mahdi of SCIRI. If
not, then the Shia coalition -- or whatever is left of it --
will find life very difficult, as secular parties, Sunni Arabs,
and the Kurds are likely to work together. Zebari is looking
forward to provincial elections in Ninewa sometime later this
year. Although he expects the Kurds to lose seats in the
provincial council, he believes more qualified candidates will
come forward. The government's problems so far have been the
fault of its weak leadership, he says. Efforts with the KRG are
progressing well, claims Zebari, and both the KDP and PUK are
working to battle corruption to attract investors from in and
outside of Iraq. End Summary.


2. (SBU) PRT PolOff met with Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)
national assemblymember Abdelbari Al Zebari, and public affairs
officers Sheikh Mahmood and Sheikh Moyadeen at PUK Guesthouse in
Mosul on April 12.

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PUK VISIT TO TURKEY
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3. (C) Zebari just returned from a visit to Turkey with a
delegation from the PUK. He said they met with the major
political groups in the country, but not with any Turkish Kurd
parties. He said the delegation spoke to Necati Cetinkaya,
Member of Parliament from the AK Parti (Justice and Peace
Party),as well as with former Turkish Ambassador to NATO and
Member of Parliament Onur Oymen. Zebari said the talks were
very adversarial. He said all the Turkish officials they met
with, regardless of political affiliation, were singing a chorus
of "The USG is going to leave soon and you'll have to play with
us. So, you better get used to it." Zebari said he met with
future Turkish Consul General to Mosul, Avni Botsali. Zebari
said he recommended to Botsali not move too quickly as the
security situation in Mosul was not stable. Plus, the location
of the former consulate was very unsafe as it was bordered on
either direction by major roads--ripe for mortaring, he said.
Zebari claimed Botsali told him the Turks were now relying on
the GOI and Ninewa provincial government to help locate a
permanent site for the consulate. Botsali planned to return to
Mosul in four to six weeks, he said. Without saying so
directly, Zebari believed that Botsali was hoping/implying the
USG would allow the Turks to operate off of a U.S. military base
in Mosul until they got settled. [NOTE: U.S. forces cannot
offer such support to the Turks because of base relocations].

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CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FORMATION
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4. (C) Zebari, ever optimistic, was certain that the new
government formation talks would prove fruitful. The
parliamentarians were slated to begin sessions this coming
Monday, April 17. He believed Shia coalition prime minister
nominee Ibrahim Al Ja'afari would step aside, or be forced to do
so because of rumors of a "crack" in the coalition. As a result
Abdul Al Mahdi of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution of
Iraq (SCIRI) would most likely replace Ja'afari as the
coalition's nominee. Grand Ayatollah Sistani even said in the
press that the coalition was cracking, said Zebari. Scientist

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Hussein Sharastani, a technocrat, was a long shot, although
Zebari still felt he was the best candidate on the Shia side.
If Ja'afari didn't step aside then the Kurds would align with
whoever broke away from the Shia coalition, as well as with
secular and Sunni Arab coalitions. Zebari claimed that gruff
political tactics by Iraqi President Jalal Talabani had upset
many people, but someone had to step up to lead the country
since Ja'afari was not. If Ja'afari stepped aside, claimed
Zebari, the new government could be formed in a matter of weeks.
The Kurd coalition hoped to retain the presidency, even if
another Kurd replaced Talabani, he said. The PUK would hold
such a position if all worked out well, since that was what both
the PUK and Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) had agreed upon.

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PROVINCIAL POLITICS
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5. (C) Zebari remained hopeful that provincial elections would
occur sometime later this year. The new government had to be
formed and the new election laws written, he said. Ninewa's
current provincial administration, while predominantly Kurdish,
was failing the people, claimed Zebari. He said its problems
were the fault of the personalities on the provincial council,
but most importantly because of weak leaders like Vice Governor
Khasro Goran. He said he was ashamed of the poor job the
provincial government was doing. Although any new election
would ultimately result in the Kurds losing seats, Zebari said
he hoped it would be more responsive to the people of Ninewa.
The last provincial election in January 2005 occurred too soon,
he said, and truly qualified candidates were afraid to run for
office given that the city just fell to terrorists two months
earlier. Zebari hoped that better and more qualified candidates
would come forward. Perhaps, then the province would move in
the right direction. The economy was doing poorly and that
contributed to security problems. Investment was needed but it
was a two-way street, since no one would invest if the security
continued at the same level or worsened over time, he said.
Zebari claimed the farming sector in Ninewa could not be allowed
to fail, since that was the bread and butter of the province, or
Ninewa would be lost.

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KURDISH ISSUES
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6. (C) Relations with the KDP were improving and the two
parties had been working better together, especially with
addressing problems of corruption in Iraqi Kurdistan. Both
parties had agreed to form commissions to investigate corruption
and to submit reports on how to battle and correct it, he said.
The importance of the issue was not lost on either side since
the goal was to lure investors, especially foreign, Zebari said.
Regardless, there were many things to be proud of in Iraqi
Kurdistan. Construction of the new American University in
Sulaymaniyah was progressing well, and safety had been
improving. Relations with the Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU) was
getting better, now that they realized they needed to work
together as Kurds, he said. KIU recently rejoined the Kurd
coalition in the national assembly in Baghdad, and had also done
so in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Although there
had not been an official announcement, Zebari believed KIU's
move was a step in the right direction. Otherwise, people would
continue to associate the party with the Sunni Arab-dominated
Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP),thereby forcing Kurds to choose
between their allegiances as Kurds and Islamic beliefs, he said.
With regards to Iraqi central government formation in Baghdad,
however, KIU was being unreasonable, he claimed, because they
were requesting three ministerial positions when they only won
five seats. This was something unlikely to happen since the two
larger parties, PUK and KDP, were already anticipating a
difficult road ahead with securing their own minister positions.


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COMMENT
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7. (C) Ever the optimist, Zebari's words on the future of Iraq,
Ninewa, and Iraqi Kurdistan are always encouraging. He believes
the current impasse over the formation of the central government
is a positive test of democracy in Iraq because it is preventing
the Shia coalition from forcing its selection of Ja'afari on the
other political parties. Zebari says he believes it will make
the Shia coalition more humble in its dealings with other

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parties, especially with regards to cabinet and ministerial
selection. In short, democracy in Iraq is working, claims
Zebari.
MUNTER