NINEWA: PUK NATIONAL ASSEMBLY DELEGATE HAS AN OPTIMISTIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSUL 000034

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/24/2016
TAGS: PREL PINS PINT PGOV PHUM IZ
SUBJECT: NINEWA: PUK NATIONAL ASSEMBLY DELEGATE HAS AN OPTIMISTIC
TAKE ON GOVERNMENT FORMATION IN BAGHDAD

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CLASSIFIED BY: Cameron Munter, PRT Leader, Provincial
Reconstruction Team Ninewa, State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Although national assembly delegates met for the first
time last week to take an oath of office, Ninewa PUK deputy
director and national assembly delegate Abdelbari Al Zebari
believes that talks will not resume until the second week of
April. He claims the pause is deliberate yet necessary to allow
the parties to continue putting pressure on the Shia coalition
over its choice of Ibrahim Al Ja'afari for prime minister. Al
Zebari believes the outcome will determine how government
coalitions are formed. If the Shia continue to insist on Al
Ja'afari, claims Al Zebari, then all other sides would work
against them. He also believes that civil war is not imminent
since "too much is at stake." End Summary.


2. (SBU) PRT PolOff met with Ninewa Patriotic Union of
Kurdistan (PUK) deputy director and national assembly delegate
Abdelbari Al Zebari in Mosul on March 22.

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CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FORMATION
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3. (C) Since the bombing of the Golden Mosque in Samarra on
February 22, the formation of the new government has been
delayed. National assembly delegates met on March 16 in Baghdad
for the first time in a shortened session to take the oath of
office. "The session lasted for only 30 minutes," said Al
Zebari, "with the plan to reconvene around the second week of
April." He said the parliament was technically still in session
but that no one was "officially" meeting. The parties were
"waiting on purpose," he said, to see if the Shia coalition
would "rethink" the nomination of Ibrahim Al Ja'afari for prime
minister, a candidate viewed by many as divisive and
ineffective. "Ja'afari is too harsh and he does not have a
record of bringing people together," said Al Zebari. Further
complicating matters was future interpretation of Article 58 and
what the Kurds perceived as Al Ja'afari's unwillingness to
settle the "Kirkuk issue" in their favor. Al Zebari does not
believe that Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution of Iraq
(SCIRI) nominee, Dr. Abdul Al Mahdi, would have been a better
choice. "He's weak and indecisive," said Al Zebari, "but that,
too, could have worked better for us." He saw Al Mahdi as
"malleable," but not a strong enough candidate to bring all
parties together.

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COALITION FORMATION DEPENDS ON AL JA'AFARI NOMINATION
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4. (C) Al Zebari remained optimistic even though he admitted
such sentiments were not popular right now. When asked about
how coalitions might shape up in the new government, Al Zebari
said the Kurdish coalition was in "serious talks" with the Iraqi
Islamic Party (IIP)-backed Tawafoq Iraqi Front, SCIRI leader
Abdul Aziz Al Hakim, and former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi's
secular National Iraq List. He claimed the Shia coalition's
choice of Al Ja'afari was helping to bring together such
dissimilar groups in opposition to the selection of the prime
minister. However, said Al Zebari, this coalition, too, would
collapse if the Shia simply changed their nominee. If that
occurred Al Zebari was not sure how a future coalition would be
shaped. Al Zebari believed nuclear scientist Hussein Sharastani
(also a member of the Shia coalition) was the best choice. He
hoped the Shia coalition would reconsider Al Ja'afari and choose
Sharastani to head the new government. Then, quite possibly,
the Kurds might join with the Shia.

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NO CIVIL WAR IMMINENT
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5. (C) Al Zebari believed that recent public statements by Al
Hakim of SCIRI regarding civil war were nothing more than a
bluff. "He's playing his yellow card," said Al Zebari drawing a
soccer analogy of when a player commits his first foul during a
match. Al Hakim was only trying to pressure disparate groups
into forming the new government, he said, not start a civil war.
The bottom line, according to Al Zebari, was that civil war was
"not on the agenda." Too much was at stake, he said, and

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tensions between Sunnis and Shia would have to come to an end
sooner rather than later. On the brighter side, however, the
prospect of civil war only made the Kurds that much more
attractive to the rest of the world, claimed Al Zebari. It was
"good for the Kurds public image," he said. And also allowed
the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to set an example by
moving ahead with its own government formation.

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COMMENT
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6. (C) Al Zebari, a very reliable contact, is reassuring, even
though his statements appear to contradict local popular opinion
and the international media. We can only hope that his
colleagues in the national assembly throughout the rest of the
country feel as he does. Moreover, if his beliefs on the how
the rest of the world might view Iraqi Kurds -- as the most
civil of Iraq's ethnic groups -- then he has every reason to
remain optimistic about their future.
MUNTER