NINEWA: A PROVINCIAL COUNCILMEMBER'S VIEWS ON LEADERSHIP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSUL 000026

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/5/2016
TAGS: PREL PINS PINT PGOV PHUM IZ MARR
SUBJECT: NINEWA: A PROVINCIAL COUNCILMEMBER'S VIEWS ON LEADERSHIP
CHANGES AFTER THE PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS

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CLASSIFIED BY: Cameron Munter, PRT Leader, Provincial
Reconstruction Team Ninewa, State.
REASON: 1.4 (a),(b),(d)



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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Ninewa Provincial Council and Assyrian Democratic
Movement (ADM) member, Gevara Zia, said he believed Sunni Arab
political parties would control the Ninewa provincial government
after elections were held later this year. Zia claimed a "more
representative" provincial government would better serve the
public and improve security. He claimed the current
Kurdish-dominated provincial council was more concerned about
political posturing than providing basic services, such as
electricity and clean water, and as a result had become
estranged from the public. Zia said the building of political
party coalitions for the elections, as well as the outcome of
future Kurdish symbolic influence in Ninewa, would largely
depend on how alignments were formed in the new national
assembly in Baghdad. End Summary.


2. (SBU) PRT Poloff met with Gevara Zia, Ninewa Provincial
Council and Assyrian Democratic Movement (ADM) member, in Mosul
on March 4.

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PROVINCIAL ELECTION (RE)ALIGNMENTS
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3. (C) Zia claimed Sunnis would control the majority of seats
in the provincial council, including the governorship and vice
governorship, after elections were held later this year. He
said the Kurdish coalition was trying to gather support from
smaller minority political parties to counter Sunni domination,
but that their success would be marginal. He said many smaller
parties were afraid to align with the Kurds for fear that Sunnis
would win by large margins and "punish" them. Zia claimed there
was currently a split between the Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP) and
the Iraqi National Dialogue Council (INDC) on several issues.
However, he said the two groups were still working on a broader
coalition with the Turkmen Front, the Iraqi Communist Party, and
members of former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi's coalition, the
National Iraqi List. Zia said he expected the Shabek Democratic
Assembly to build a coalition with Shia political parties of the
United Iraqi Coalition, since it was unlikely Shias would align
with either Sunnis or the Kurds. Zia said ADM was uncertain how
to proceed for the elections: whether they would stay
independent, side with other minority parties, or join a larger
coalition. He said it would depend on the political atmosphere
leading up to the election.

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SUNNI PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT WOULD BETTER SERVE THE PUBLIC
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4. (C) When asked whether he thought a predominantly Sunni Arab
provincial council would function more successfully than the
current Kurdish one, Zia replied with a resounding "yes." He
said many people in Ninewa did not believe the current
provincial government was "legal" or represented them. He
claimed that what contributed to this problem was that the
provincial government operated as a "separate entity" from the
public and therefore did not bother to build the trust of the
people. Zia said excuses by Governor Duraid Kashmoula and Vice
Governor Khassro Goran that the highly centralized federal
government did not allow them to do their job were false. Zia
accused the two, and the majority Kurdish provincial council, of
concentrating more on "political gains" rather than with helping
the people. He said, for example, that during the CPA days the
provincial government was given funding but had not, to this
day, produced results. Zia said he believed the Sunnis would
simply do a better job with governance and administrative issues
than the Kurds. He claimed that a "more representative"
Sunni-led government would concentrate more on providing basic
public services, such as clean water and electricity.

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AN END TO KURDISH INFLUENCE?
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5. (C) Zia said expectations that a new Sunni Arab provincial
government might be able to limit Kurdish influence -- such as
flags and Peshmerga -- in Ninewa would largely depend on how the
new federal government was formed. He said events in Baghdad

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would directly affect power-sharing arrangements in Ninewa,
which might also influence Kurdish symbolic presence in the
province.

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SECURITY
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6. (C) Zia said he expected security to improve as well with a
Sunni Arab-dominated provincial government. He said the two
groups of Sunnis -- political leadership and terrorists -- would
square off, with the political side eventually succeeding in
pacifying the terrorist elements. Zia claimed, however, that
the process would take time and therefore security problems
would not disappear overnight. He claimed that the more diverse
the provincial government, the better security would be in the
province.

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TIMELINE AND POWER BROKERS
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7. (C) Zia said he did not expect provincial elections to take
place until later this year. He said the new national
government would have to rewrite all of the laws pertaining to
the Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq (IECI),as well as
change leadership within that organization before any elections
could take place. Zia said the Al-Najafi family, led by the
Minister of Industry and Minerals Abdulaziz Al-Najafi, would
likely be the next power family in Ninewa. He said the
Al-Najafis fought hard to gain power in 2004 after the
assassination of former governor Osama Kashmoula (current
governor Duraid Kashmoula's cousin),but that they eventually
lost to the Kashmoula family. He said that the Al-Najafi
family's desire to sit at the seat of power had not diminished.
However, Zia said that he did not have specific names of which
Al-Najafi family members would run for office.

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COMMENT
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8. (C) Gevara Zia has been a reliable contact for the PRT in
the past, and his views on the ground in Ninewa should not be
taken lightly. He has served on the provincial council since
January 2005, and has been known as one of the few members who
consistently stand up to the council's Kurdish leadership.
While his comments should not be taken as gospel, his insight
into provincial politics tracks with other voices we have heard,
especially outside Mosul: that the current leadership is
detached, and will pay for its detachment at the polls.
MUNTER