NGO DRAFT LEGISLATION: STILL UNSIGNED BY PUTIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 000096

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM RS
SUBJECT: NGO DRAFT LEGISLATION: STILL UNSIGNED BY PUTIN

REF: 05 MOSCOW 15605

Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns. Reasons: 1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: President Putin has yet to sign or veto the
controversial NGO legislation passed in late December by the
Duma and Federation Council. Most observers remain convinced
that he will sign it, although there is some confusion about
the timeframe in which he must make a decision. Assuming it
is signed, the bill will likely require "normative
regulations" for its implementation, a process on which we
expect the Justice Ministry to have the lead. We will
continue to express our concerns both about the bill and
particularly about its potential implementation. END SUMMARY
.
BILL REMAINS UNSIGNED
--------------


2. (C) Following its December 23 passage on third reading by
the State Duma and its December 27 passage by the Federation
Council (reftel),the controversial NGO bill was sent to
President Putin for signature. By law, the FedCouncil must
pass it to him within five days, after which he has fourteen
days to either sign it or decline to do so. We have heard
differing interpretations from our contacts, however, about
whether this refers to calendar or working days and whether
the lengthy holiday period of the past week and a half is to
be counted. If the deadlines are counted according to
calendar days, January 16 would mark the final deadline for a
decision on the bill. A contact in the Russian Arbitration
Court, however, told us that Putin could postpone a decision
because of Russia's new year holidays. Similarly, Moscow
Carnegie Center Senior Scholar Liliya Shevtsova told us that,
according to one of her contacts, Putin planned to put off a
decision; this might be explained on the grounds that the
holiday period could not be counted within the fourteen day
deadline, Shevtsova speculated.


3. (C) Observers had expected Putin to sign the bill quickly,
and many of them are surprised that, to date, he has not done
so. The general consensus is that he will sign it. That was
the view of Shevtsova, for instance. Similarly, Bishop
Sergey Ryakhovskiy told us that he expected a signature
following the holidays and Putin's return from Kazakhstan,
where he is traveling on January 11. Ryakhovskiy said that
he had joined several other Chamber members in bluntly
criticizing the bill in a recent meeting with Presidential
Administration deputy head Vladislav Surkov, but conceded
that that was unlikely to have any bearing. In a January 11
meeting with the Ambassador, the UK, German and French
ambassadors all agreed that an early signature was likely.
The human rights community generally shares that view. Two
long-time human rights activists, Father Gleb Yakunin and Lev
Ponomarev, told us in separate conversations that they saw
little hope that Putin would veto the bill. The lengthy
holiday period saw almost no action by the civil society
community with regard to the bill, although such action is
beginning to start up again. According to Ford Foundation
country director Steve Solnick, the Donors Forum is to meet
on January 13 about the legislation.


4. (SBU) Should Putin veto the bill, he would send it back to
the legislature, which would be constitutionally required to
reconsider it. Although Putin's veto could be overridden (by
a joint two-third vote of the Duma and FedCouncil),no one
seriously thinks that could happen. Instead, the expectation
is that in such a circumstance, the Duma would amend the
bill, possibly following input from the Public Chamber, which
sought to play such a role before dropping that request prior
to the FedCouncil's December 27 vote.
.
IMPLEMENTATION ISSUES
--------------


5. (SBU) Although not all bills require "normative acts" to
lay out implementation details, the NGO legislation seems
likely to do so. It is a complex bill that amends existing
legislation. Observers noted, for instance, that normative
acts would be required because the bill leaves it to the
government to determine the manner and deadline by which the
federal registration body would hand over information about
previously registered NGOs to regional bodies. Moscow
Helsinki Group head Lyudmila Alekseyeva told us that
preparation of implementing documentation could prove a
lengthy process, and if the bill goes into force before all
documentation is set, local officials could apply it as they
see fit, arbitrarily targeting organizations they oppose. We
understand the Justice Ministry would have the lead in
preparing implementation details.


MOSCOW 00000096 002 OF 002



6. (C) In his meeting with his European colleagues, the
Ambassador noted that assuming the bill is signed, how it is
implemented will take on prime concern. His European
colleagues shared that view, with the German ambassador
noting that German Chancellor Merkel's planned January 16
visit might constitute an opportunity to express such
concerns.
.
COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) Putin has been known to pull off surprises, and no one
entirely rules out that he could veto the bill. Were he to
do so, it would be because he is not comfortable with its
provisions and/or to cast himself to the international
community as a progressive force. Particularly because he
proposed a number of amendments between the Duma's first and
second reading, and because many proponents of the bill
argued that the final version, as ultimately passed by the
FedCouncil, included those amendments, we share the view that
he will likely sign it. This in no way precludes continued
expressions of concern about the bill's provisions and about
its implementation. A/S Lowenkron's upcoming visit will
offer one important opportunity to reiterate that message,
which we, working closely with the NGO community and other
embassies, will continue conveying at every appropriate
opportunity.
BURNS