Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MOSCOW3388
2006-03-31 13:51:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Moscow
Cable title:  

RUSSIAN DEMOCRATIC OPPOSITION LEADER BORIS NEMTSOV

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM PINR RS 
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VZCZCXRO8818
PP RUEHDBU
DE RUEHMO #3388/01 0901351
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 311351Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3388
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 003388 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/31/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIAN DEMOCRATIC OPPOSITION LEADER BORIS NEMTSOV
GETS PERSONAL

REF: MOSCOW 1083

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Daniel A. Russell. Reasons 1.4 (B/D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 003388

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/31/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIAN DEMOCRATIC OPPOSITION LEADER BORIS NEMTSOV
GETS PERSONAL

REF: MOSCOW 1083

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Daniel A. Russell. Reasons 1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) In a March 27 meeting with the Ambassador, democratic
opposition leader Boris Nemtsov:

-- Strongly condemned the falsified election results in
Belarus, where the people faced a "catastrophic situation";

-- Suggested that negotiations to form a new government in
Ukraine would be prolonged and contentious;

-- Noted that talks to unite Russia's democratic opposition
continued, but that liberals needed new leadership to attract
popular support and enhance their overall position; and

-- Interspersed his comments with a range of personal views
concerning various local and regional leaders. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) Ambassador met with Boris Nemtsov on March 27.
Nemtsov, a former Governor of Nizhniy Novgorod and Deputy
Prime Minister during the Yeltsin era, has long been
associated with liberal economic policies and democratic
politics. Most recently, he was appointed by the Union of
Right Forces (SPS) to serve as that party's representative on
a committee charged with uniting the country's democratic
opposition forces. He has also served as an advisor to
Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko following the 2004
Orange Revolution and has been an outspoken supporter of
Belarus opposition leader Aleksandr Milinkevich.
.
-------------- -
BELARUS ELECTIONS A CATASTROPHE FOR THE PEOPLE
-------------- -


3. (C) Nemtsov roundly condemned the current situation in
Belarus. The March 19 elections had been falsified and,
subsequently, protesters had been beaten and arrested. He
welcomed official statements by the U.S. and EU condemning
these events but, overall, Nemtsov concluded that a popular
revolution along the lines of the Orange Revolution in
Ukraine was unlikely. The opposition was neither as well
organized nor as effective as the forces that brought Viktor
Yushchenko to power in Kiev. As a result, the people of
Belarus faced a "catastrophic situation."


4. (C) Referring to possible implications for the

relationship between Belarus and Russia, Nemtsov did not
believe there would be any significant change in direction,
including in the continuing negotiations to establish a Union
State. Moscow had congratulated Aleksandr Lukashenko almost
immediately after the polls closed and would continue to
defend the embattled regime against criticism from the West.
Nemtsov claimed that President Putin did not personally like
Lukashenko (he likened the relationship to the World War
II-era ties between Hitler and Mussolini),but the two
leaders needed each other. In any case, Nemtsov thought
Putin's recent tilt toward support for "dictators" and
populist politicians of various types in Belarus and Central
Asia was not worthy of a G-8 leader. At the same time,
Nemtsov warned that Lukashenko, who was "worse than
Milosevic," maintained considerable popular support in both
Belarus and Russia which, along with his political
connections, could conceivably propel him to the presidency
of a future Russia-Belarus Union State.
.
--------------
ARDUOUS POWER NEGOTIATIONS IN UKRAINE
--------------


5. (C) Turning to the situation in Ukraine following the
March 26 parliamentary elections, Nemtsov characterized the
majority of Ukrainian politicians, including Viktor
Yanukovych and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, as
either "criminal or corrupt." The major difference among
them was one of degree rather than quality. Nemtsov said
that while Yushchenko was well-intentioned, he was never able
to overcome the entrenched business interests, deep-seated
corruption, or continuing GOR opposition that ultimately
rendered U.S. and Western praise for the "Orange Revolution"
premature. Nemtsov said Putin, in particular, had never
gotten over Yanukovych's defeat in 2004.


6. (C) Nemtsov predicted that the negotiations to establish
a new government would be prolonged and arduous. He thought
Tymoshenko had been a "catastrophe" when she had been PM last
year but conceded that her second-place finish strengthened
her hand and might allow her to regain her former position.
A repeat of the Tymoshenko Government would be another
"catastrophe." In the meantime, Nemtsov speculated that

MOSCOW 00003388 002 OF 002


Yanukovych might have the strongest hand. In addition to his
party's first-place finish in the elections, Yanukovych might
be able to exploit differences between Yushchenko and
Tymoshenko, including Yushchenko's evident unwillingness to
see Tymoshenko become PM again.


7. (C) Regardless of who took over the government helm in
Kiev, Nemtsov said the new PM would have to pay more
attention to Moscow. In this respect, he said Yanukovych was
harder to predict. Clearly supported by Moscow, Yanukovych
nevertheless had promised during the campaign to keep the
country on its pro-Western course. Nemtsov was unsure of the
extent to which policy would change -- or not -- as a result,
although he mentioned that relations with Poland could become
more complicated. He was certain, however, that the
country's plans to join NATO would slow since most Ukrainians
(not only those in the eastern part of the country) were not
enthusiastic about joining the Alliance.
.
--------------
DEMOCRATS NEED NEW LEADERSHIP
--------------


8. (C) Asked about prospects for uniting Russia's democratic
opposition forces, Nemtsov said discussions were continuing
with the main political players, but a genuine coalition was
still out of reach. He singled out Yabloko's Grigoriy
Yavlinskiy as one of the main obstacles. Although Yavlinskiy
agreed in principle that unity, or at least closer
cooperation on joint lists, would be desirable, the Yabloko
leader was still reluctant to make meaningful concessions for
the sake of a broader coalition. Nemtsov surmised that
Yavlinskiy had not abandoned his personal goal of becoming
president. A lack of financial support was also an obstacle,
especially for smaller parties like Vladimir Ryzhkov's
Republican Party.


9. (C) In the meantime, Nemtsov said the democrats needed an
infusion of new leadership, along with a new message, that
would spark public interest. Former Prime Minister Mikhail
Kasyanov was the only option for the time being, but Nemtsov
said he was relatively weak and had not yet been able to cast
aside a "very negative image" as a corrupt politician.
Nemtsov alleged that Kasyanov had been involved in numerous
cases of bribe-taking and official corruption; the widely
reported case of his dacha was just the tip of the iceberg.
.
--------------
A LITTLE BIT OF COLOR FOR EVERYBODY
--------------


10. (C) Over the course of our conversation, Nemtsov
commented on various personalities. Among other things,
Nemtsov:

-- Claimed there were only four honest politicians in the
country -- Communist Party leader Gennadiy Zyuganov, Our
Choice leader Irina Khakamada, Yabloko's Yavlinskiy, and
himself. With the exception of Zyuganov, the other three
have been close associates of Nemtsov over the years. Among
the most corrupt are recently deposed Rodina Party President
Dmitriy Rogozin, Rodina faction leader Sergey Glazyev, and
Kasyanov.

-- Said Putin feared being overthrown or assassinated,
especially on the orders of Chechen separatists or exiled
business leader Boris Berezovskiy, whom Putin had personally
tried to convince British PM Tony Blair last October to
extradite to Russia.

-- Maintained close ties with Vladislav Surkov, Deputy Head
of the Presidential Administration, including during the
money laundering raids against Neftyanoy Bank, Nemtsov's
former bank, last December. He claimed that Surkov had
warned him in advance that the raid was "political," which
was one of the factors that had prompted Nemtsov to resign
from the bank's board.
RUSSELL