Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MOSCOW3202
2006-03-29 14:33:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Moscow
Cable title:  

AMBASSADOR'S MARCH 29 MEETING WITH RUSSIAN DFM

Tags:  PREL PGOV ENRG ETRD BO UP GG MD RS 
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VZCZCXRO5823
PP RUEHDBU
DE RUEHMO #3202/01 0881433
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 291433Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3146
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 003202 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/29/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV ENRG ETRD BO UP GG MD RS
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S MARCH 29 MEETING WITH RUSSIAN DFM
KARASIN

REF: A. MOSCOW 2974


B. MOSCOW 1934

Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns. Reasons: 1.4(B & D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 003202

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/29/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV ENRG ETRD BO UP GG MD RS
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S MARCH 29 MEETING WITH RUSSIAN DFM
KARASIN

REF: A. MOSCOW 2974


B. MOSCOW 1934

Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns. Reasons: 1.4(B & D).


1. (C) Summary: Ambassador Burns met with Russian Deputy
Foreign Minister Grigoriy Karasin March 29 to discuss the
outcomes of the Belarusian and Ukrainian elections and recent
developments in Moldova, Georgia, and Nagorno-Karabakh.
Karasin was sanguine about the March 26 Ukrainian
parliamentary elections, observing that it would be some time
before a government would be formed in Kiev, but underlining
that Russia was interested in pursuing a range of bilateral
talks. Karasin welcomed continuing contacts on
Nagorno-Karabakh and remains interested in a joint visit to
the region with A/S Fried and an appropriate French
representative. Karasin questioned why the West would pursue
sanctions against Belarus, arguing that Belarus "should be
allowed to develop on its own terms." On Georgia, Karasin
judged the recent JCC meeting productive and noted that
Russia would likely sign a technical agreement with Georgia
on the withdrawal from Russian bases on March 31. He said
that Russia would hold expert-level talks with Georgia (and
Moldova) before imposing any ban on wine imports. Russia was
ready to participate in Five Plus Two talks involving
Transnistria he said, but acknowledged that Ukrainian
participation might be complicated by ongoing talks about
forming a government. End Summary.
.
Ukraine
--------------


2. (C) DFM Karasin said that Russia had closely followed
the Ukrainian parliamentary election campaign and judged it
to be a "normal" political process which had led to an
election with no clear winner. The Ukrainian electorate was
divided. Yushchenko's Our Ukraine suffered at the polls
because of economic developments since the Orange Revolution
and political infighting, while Yanukovich's Party of Regions
demonstrated it was a force to be reckoned with in Ukrainian

politics. More interesting to Karasin was the strong showing
by Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko; he thought that the ball would be
in her court to form a government. Responding to the
Ambassador's query about a likely timeline for government
formation, Karasin likened the situation in Kiev to a play;
we are now watching the first act, which will be full of
intrigue, fascinating characters and perhaps some
unpredictable twists and turns.


3. (C) Karasin said that Russia was looking forward to a
serious partnership with whatever government was formed
because of the wide range of political and economic ties
linking Kiev and Moscow. Now that the elections were over,
it was likely that the Putin-Yushchenko bilateral commission
might finally meet for the first time. Karasin, who
co-chairs working group discussions on the Black Sea Fleet,
said that group had agreed to divide outstanding issues among
several subgroups, but forecast that the discussions would be
long and complex, reflecting the interrelated problems that
need to be sorted out. In the end, he observed, the
resolution of these issues will depend on the sprit of the
negotiations.
.
Nagorno-Karabakh
--------------


4. (C) Karasin expressed appreciation for A/S Fried's
readout of his recent visit to Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Karasin shares the view that there is an opening for progress
on Nagaorno-Karabakh that should be tested. He suggested
that a joint visit in the next few weeks would be useful,
noting that "unusual approaches" are sometimes necessary to
shake up the situation and prod the parties' thinking. He
also mentioned that he is planning another trip of his own to
the South Caucasus in April.
.
Belarus
--------------


5. (C) Reflecting on Lukashenko's March 19 reelection,
Karasin said that he shared the views of the majority of the
Russian political class that Lukashenko was genuinely popular
among Belarusians. There were disagreements among
Belarusians about the course Lukashenko was pursuing, but
such differences were completely normal in any society.
Karasin said Russia did not understand efforts in the West to
use sanctions to punish the Belarusian government -- Minsk
had no nuclear weapons and was not pursuing dangerous
activities against its neighbors. It simply sought to
develop on its own terms.


MOSCOW 00003202 002 OF 003



6. (C) The Ambassador underlined that the U.S. and EU had
been very clear in our views about the conduct of the
Belarusian election and its aftermath. Referring to comments
Karasin had made to U/S Burns and the Ambassador in February
(ref B),the Ambassador pressed him to explain what steps he
believed Lukashenko would take now that the election was
over to open up a political space in Belarus. Karasin noted
that Lukashenko had permitted demonstrations and political
opposition -- up to a point -- and argued that the pace of
any future opening would depend on Lukashenko, rather than on
outside pressures.


7. (C) Karasin confirmed that Russia and Belarus would take
up discussions on gas prices in the near future. Moscow
wanted a deal that was profitable, transparent and based on
market mechanisms. On Union State negotiations, he did not
hold out any prospects for a prompt conclusion to talks.
Karasin noted that Moscow would soon mark the tenth
anniversary of the opening of discussions and that some
particularly difficult questions about status remained
unresolved.
.
Georgia
--------------


8. (C) Turning to Georgia, Karasin was guardedly optimistic
that bilateral relations had taken a positive turn. Georgia
and South Ossetian representatives at the March 27-28 Joint
Control Committee (JCC) meeting in Vladikavkaz had
constructive discussions. Talks about security guarantees
and economic projects had been positive, Karasin noted. Any
JCC meeting, much less one that had seen substantive
discussions, needed to be viewed as a step forward. He noted
that the technical agreement on withdrawing Russian troops
and bases from Georgia would likely be signed on March 31 in
Sochi.


9. (C) Karasin was direct in raising Russian concerns about
Georgia's pursuit of NATO membership. Georgia was now in
talks with NATO on a Membership Action Plan, while at the
same time its recently enunciated national security doctrine
had identified Russia as its most likely military opponent.
Karasin asked how these two points should be understood. The
Ambassador responded by pointing out that Georgia was at the
early stages in the process of seeking NATO membership and
that many steps would have to be taken before it could be
considered for membership. While this process was ongoing,
it was important for Russia and NATO members to have candid
discussions, through the NATO-Russia Council or bilaterally.


10. (C) The Ambassador expressed concern about reported
remarks made by Gennadiy Bukayev, an aide to PM Fradkov,
concerning Russian plans to join North and South Ossetia into
a new entity under Russian control. Karasin backpedaled,
explaining that press reports about what Bukayev had said
perhaps had given an incorrect impression. Bukayev had been
discussing economic integration projects in North and South
Ossetia, and perhaps a distinction between economic and
political integration had not been made clear. In any event,
Bukayev had attended the JCC meeting in Vladikavkaz and would
thus have been available to provide a personal explanation to
the Georgian representatives. Karasin said Russia's policy
remains that the future of South Ossetia should be settled
through talks in the existing JCC mechanism.

11. (C) The Ambassador raised reports of a ban by Moscow on
the import of Georgian and Moldovan wine. While Karasin said
that phytosanitary standards were beyond his expertise, he
claimed that Russia was willing to hold discussions with
Georgia (and Moldova) at an expert level to explain Russia's
"technical" decision before the ban went into place. He
dismissed reports that Moscow's decision on wine imports was
tied to possible Russian-Georgian discussions on Russia's WTO
accession. (Note: Both the Moldovan and Georgian Embassies
in Moscow told us March 29 that imports have in fact been
halted. Both say they have been unsuccessfully seeking
meetings at the expert level, with Moldova's Minister of
Economy in Moscow since March 28, unable to find an
interlocutor. End note.)
.
Moldova
--------------


12. (C) Karasin noted that the "humanitarian" convoy of
medical supplies Russia had sent to Transnistria had finally
arrived after extended discussions with Kiev about the
convoy's progress through Ukraine. He claimed that the
shipment had primarily consisted of medicines that were in
short supply. He suggested again, as he had to the
Ambassador last week, that the convoy was a one-shot deal
aimed less at any real "humanitarian catastrophe" than at
domestic political opinion in Russia. On Five Plus Two

MOSCOW 00003202 003 OF 003


talks, there had been a "time out" as the parties assessed
the situation, but this period had now come to an end and
Russia was ready for productive talks. Karasin acknowledged
that Kiev's continuing focus on forming a government might
lead to complications in moving forward.
.
NGO Law
--------------


13. (C) Responding to Karasin's question about U.S.
attitudes towards Russia's NGO laws, the Ambassador stressed
that implementation of the law would be a critical issue. He
suggested the MFA and Justice Ministry be transparent in
explaining to NGOs and the media the approach the government
would take in implementing the law.
BURNS