MOSCOW CALLS LUKASHENKO'S REELECTION "LEGITIMATE"

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 002760

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/20/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV OSCE BY RS
SUBJECT: MOSCOW CALLS LUKASHENKO'S REELECTION "LEGITIMATE"


Classified By: A/POL Bruce Donahue. For reasons: 1.4(B/D).


1. (SBU) The MFA called Belarus' presidential election
"legitimate" in a March 20 press release. (Informal
translation of text in para 4). According to the press
release, the election took place according to recognized
norms of transparency and reflected the will of the
Belarusian people. In Moscow's view, the electoral result
should be respected and Belarus should be left to develop
democratic institutions at its own pace. Aside from the
MFA's statement, there have been no other official comments
on the election.


2. (C) The Russian press generally stuck to a
straightforward description of the election results.
Izvestiya reflected the general tenor of press coverage by
noting that there had been "no doubt" Lukashenko would win,
especially since he had made sure there were no real
challengers. Business-oriented Vedomosti ironically labeled
Lukashenko a "loyal and dependable partner" -- as someone who
can make Putin appear more democratic -- and a predictable
and safe ally. Vremya Novostey came closest to expressing
skepticism about the electoral results, pointing out that 40
percent of the electorate cast their votes early and noting
some exit poll results differed sharply from the official
results. (Note: According to initial press reports, the
well-respected Levada Center found Lukashenko was supported
by 45 percent of Belarusians while opposition candidate
Milinkevich enjoyed 25 percent of the vote. We were later
told by the Levada Center that there had been methodological
problems in the polling and the Center did not intend to
release results. End Note.) Vremya Novostey also gave
sympathetic coverage to the March 19 opposition protest in
Minsk.


3. (C) Comment: We expect more pointed reactions from
Russian officials and the press if ODHIR concludes that the
Belarusian elections did not meet OSCE standards. The CIS
observer mission has reportedly already endorsed the conduct
of the election as "open and fair," which will be used by
Russian officials to challenge any different conclusion by
ODHIR.


4. (SBU) Begin informal translation of the MFA Press
Release:

The Belarusian presidential election took place on March 19.
Based on preliminary data from the Belarusian Central
Election Commission, 90 percent of voters took part in the
election. Approximately 80 percent voted for Lukashenko.

The election proceeded on an alternative basis. This allowed
for the results of the vote to reflect the opinion of
Belarus' citizens, and that is an indicator of the social
will to move forward along a democratic path.

In Moscow our interest in the electoral campaign in Belarus
and in the situation around the country during the course of
the election is understandable. After all, Belarus is not
only our closest neighbor, but an ally of Russia and an
economic partner that plays an important role in our trade
relations with Europe.

The election was a testament to the high level of civil
activity among the population, the interest of the Belarusian
people in stability and the continuation of socially oriented
policies. Belarusians clearly expressed their will, and it
must be treated with respect.

There is a clear basis to consider that the election
proceeded in accordance with generally recognized standards,
and the legitimacy of its results are not to be doubted.
This same conclusion, by the way, was drawn by a large group
of observers from Russia and the CIS who took part in the
monitoring mission.

The course of the electoral campaign and the election itself
confirmed that the development of democratic institutions and
the strengthening of the bases of civil society in Belarus,
above all, depend on Belarus' internal processes, and also on
the harmonious development of relations between Belarus and
the external world.

End informal translation of MFA Press Release.


BURNS