Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MOSCOW13137
2006-12-28 15:15:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Moscow
Cable title:
POST-NIYAZOV TURKMENISTAN: VIEWS FROM MOSCOW
how-toVZCZCXRO5678 OO RUEHDBU DE RUEHMO #3137 3621515 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O 281515Z DEC 06 FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6128 INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 013137
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/27/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON TX RS
SUBJECT: POST-NIYAZOV TURKMENISTAN: VIEWS FROM MOSCOW
REF: MOSCOW 13025
Classified By: Pol/Min Alice G. Wells. Reasons 1,4 (b/d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 013137
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/27/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON TX RS
SUBJECT: POST-NIYAZOV TURKMENISTAN: VIEWS FROM MOSCOW
REF: MOSCOW 13025
Classified By: Pol/Min Alice G. Wells. Reasons 1,4 (b/d)
1. (C) Summary. While the GOR has officially downplayed its
concern about the status of existing energy contracts with
Turkmenistan following Niyazov's death, observers here
consistently report that gas supplies and Turkmenistan's
continuing neutrality are Moscow's foremost concerns as the
succession unfolds. With the election now set for February
11, the betting here is that Berdimuhammedov, most likely to
win, will be a weak transitional figure. Media coverage has
been explicitly critical of Niyazov's rule. End summary.
Status Quo, Not a Bad Course
--------------
2. (C) Andrey Ryabov of the Institute of World Economy and
International Relations (IMEMO) succinctly summarized
Russia's interest in the new Turkmenistan as "gas and
neutrality." As long as Russia continues to receive the
agreed volume of Turkmen gas and Turkmenistan does not lean
toward any "center" of world power, the GOR will have little
interest in the actual name of the successor. Ryabov thought
all candidates so far named were weak and would be unable to
wield power like Niyazov. He believed that Russia could live
with any of the likely successors, including interim
President Berdimuhammedov, Head of the Presidential Security
Service Akmurad Rejepov, and Minister of Defense Agadeldi
Mammetgeldiyev. Russia would not mind "another dictator," as
long as he keeps order and does not disrupt the gas flow.
Russia will act only if Turkmenistan were to cozy up to the
U.S., EU, Iran, or China.
Celebration of Democracy?
--------------
3. (C) Vremya Novostey columnist Arkadiy Dubnov wryly called
the February 11 election a "celebration" of democracy.
Turkmenistan will go through the motions of a democratic
election but in the end, he predicted, whomever is elected
will be a transitional figure. The CIS Institute's Andrey
Grozin agreed: Berdimuhammedov is a weak figure who cannot
act independently of the conflicting influences unfolding in
the country. The situation resembles Tajikistan in 1992 when
Rahmonov emerged from "nowhere," in the midst of a civil war
and only after many months of uncertainty. Grozin thought it
possible that there could be a power-sharing agreement among
the contenders, each of whom would have a piece of power and
the economic gains that go with it. Drawing on another
historical parallel, CIS Institute's Deputy Director Vladimir
Zharikhin noted that like the aftermath of Stalin's death,
Turkmenistan would experience a weak collective leadership
before power consolidated. Ovezgeldi Atayev, he predicted,
was the first but will not be the last victim in the on-going
power struggle.
No Good Prognosis Possible
--------------
4. (C) All agreed that no one knows what will happen in
Turkmenistan. They lamented a lack of reliable information
and noted that even media outlets with stringers in Ashgabat
are not able to make a reasoned prognosis. Turkmenistan,
Grozin summarized, was a "mythical, Eastern" county which
Russia does not understand. Aleksey Malashenko of the Moscow
Carnegie Center noted that many ambitious countries --China,
the U.S., Iran-- were eagerly waiting for change in
Turkmenistan, while "no change" would be the best outcome for
Russia.
Lesson for Putin
--------------
5. (C) The Russian print media have devoted much attention
to Niyazov's "zero" legacy, with Russian television
highlighting (but not drawing conclusions about) the
grandiose projects and idiosyncratic features of his
dictatorial rule. Commentators have been uniform in their
characterization of the Niyazov regime -- as an odious, but
necessary partner in the export of gas. In a "Kommersant"
article, Stanislav Belkovskiy, Director of the Institute of
National Strategy, went further and compared Putin's Russia
to Niyazov's Turkmenistan, which he termed an energy empire
based on a dictatorship. He warned of a possible
degeneration of Russia to the level of
Turkmenistan--politically, economically and culturally.
BURNS
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/27/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON TX RS
SUBJECT: POST-NIYAZOV TURKMENISTAN: VIEWS FROM MOSCOW
REF: MOSCOW 13025
Classified By: Pol/Min Alice G. Wells. Reasons 1,4 (b/d)
1. (C) Summary. While the GOR has officially downplayed its
concern about the status of existing energy contracts with
Turkmenistan following Niyazov's death, observers here
consistently report that gas supplies and Turkmenistan's
continuing neutrality are Moscow's foremost concerns as the
succession unfolds. With the election now set for February
11, the betting here is that Berdimuhammedov, most likely to
win, will be a weak transitional figure. Media coverage has
been explicitly critical of Niyazov's rule. End summary.
Status Quo, Not a Bad Course
--------------
2. (C) Andrey Ryabov of the Institute of World Economy and
International Relations (IMEMO) succinctly summarized
Russia's interest in the new Turkmenistan as "gas and
neutrality." As long as Russia continues to receive the
agreed volume of Turkmen gas and Turkmenistan does not lean
toward any "center" of world power, the GOR will have little
interest in the actual name of the successor. Ryabov thought
all candidates so far named were weak and would be unable to
wield power like Niyazov. He believed that Russia could live
with any of the likely successors, including interim
President Berdimuhammedov, Head of the Presidential Security
Service Akmurad Rejepov, and Minister of Defense Agadeldi
Mammetgeldiyev. Russia would not mind "another dictator," as
long as he keeps order and does not disrupt the gas flow.
Russia will act only if Turkmenistan were to cozy up to the
U.S., EU, Iran, or China.
Celebration of Democracy?
--------------
3. (C) Vremya Novostey columnist Arkadiy Dubnov wryly called
the February 11 election a "celebration" of democracy.
Turkmenistan will go through the motions of a democratic
election but in the end, he predicted, whomever is elected
will be a transitional figure. The CIS Institute's Andrey
Grozin agreed: Berdimuhammedov is a weak figure who cannot
act independently of the conflicting influences unfolding in
the country. The situation resembles Tajikistan in 1992 when
Rahmonov emerged from "nowhere," in the midst of a civil war
and only after many months of uncertainty. Grozin thought it
possible that there could be a power-sharing agreement among
the contenders, each of whom would have a piece of power and
the economic gains that go with it. Drawing on another
historical parallel, CIS Institute's Deputy Director Vladimir
Zharikhin noted that like the aftermath of Stalin's death,
Turkmenistan would experience a weak collective leadership
before power consolidated. Ovezgeldi Atayev, he predicted,
was the first but will not be the last victim in the on-going
power struggle.
No Good Prognosis Possible
--------------
4. (C) All agreed that no one knows what will happen in
Turkmenistan. They lamented a lack of reliable information
and noted that even media outlets with stringers in Ashgabat
are not able to make a reasoned prognosis. Turkmenistan,
Grozin summarized, was a "mythical, Eastern" county which
Russia does not understand. Aleksey Malashenko of the Moscow
Carnegie Center noted that many ambitious countries --China,
the U.S., Iran-- were eagerly waiting for change in
Turkmenistan, while "no change" would be the best outcome for
Russia.
Lesson for Putin
--------------
5. (C) The Russian print media have devoted much attention
to Niyazov's "zero" legacy, with Russian television
highlighting (but not drawing conclusions about) the
grandiose projects and idiosyncratic features of his
dictatorial rule. Commentators have been uniform in their
characterization of the Niyazov regime -- as an odious, but
necessary partner in the export of gas. In a "Kommersant"
article, Stanislav Belkovskiy, Director of the Institute of
National Strategy, went further and compared Putin's Russia
to Niyazov's Turkmenistan, which he termed an energy empire
based on a dictatorship. He warned of a possible
degeneration of Russia to the level of
Turkmenistan--politically, economically and culturally.
BURNS