Novosibirsk: United Russia Stronghold With High

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 013012

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL ETRD RS
SUBJECT: Novosibirsk: United Russia Stronghold With High
Tech Hopes

Summary
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1. (SBU) United Russia's (YR) dominance in Russia's regions
is evident in Novosibirsk, where YR holds the governorship,
has an absolute majority in the regional parliament, does
not view the emergence of the second Kremlin party "A Just
Russia" as a threat, and dismisses the influence of
"democratic" parties. In a city well known for its
research institutes and boasting 150,000 university
students -- a tenth of its population -- Novosibirsk elites
see the high technology sector as central to the region's
future. Novosibirsk's other main selling point is its
location as a transport hub for Siberia. Some grumble that
Novosibirsk has a less progressive regional administration
than other Siberian regions -- notably Krasnoyarsk -- and
is losing ground in attracting new investment.
Businesspeople complained of insufficient U.S. investment
and a time-consuming process for getting U.S. visas. End
summary.

United Russia's Appeal and the Putin Legacy
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2. (U) Victor Tolonskiy has been governor of the
Novosibirsk region since 1999. He had no formal party
affiliation until December 2005 when he joined United
Russia. United Russia controls 53 seats in the regional
parliament (still knows as a "Soviet"),giving it an
absolute majority. The other parties in the parliament
are: Communists with 24 seats, the Agrarian Party with 14
seats, and LDPR (Zhirinovsky group) with 5 seats; there are
also two independents.


3. (SBU) During a late November visit to Novosibirsk, we
met with A. Bespalikov, Chairman of the parliament.
Bespalikov was highly confident of United Russia's
popularity in the region and expressed no doubt the party
would capture a majority of the region's vote in the 2007
elections for the State Duma. Bespalikov stressed the
importance to voters of the stability, order and improved
living standards that Putin had achieved. United Russia's
association with these successes means that its place with
voters is secure.


4. (SBU) Bespalikov contrasted current trends with the
situation in the 1990s, when Russians were living under
"warlike conditions." This "period of chaos" had totally
discredited Yeltsin and the liberals. Bespalikov recounted
that center-region relations had been a shambles; Yeltsin
largely cast regions like Novosibirsk adrift. All this had
changed under Putin. The "vertical of power," had not
subjugated the regions, but rather had saved them. Putin
had reconnected the country and reversed centrifugal forces
that could have led to the disintegration of Russia.


5. (SBU) Bespalikov was not worried by the appearance of
the newly formed "A Just Russia" (SR) party, predicting
that A Just Russia might be less than the sum of its parts.
He added that Rodina (a constituent part of SR),LDPR and
the Communists were all on the decline in Novosibirsk.

A Just Russia
--------------


6. (SBU) Chairwoman of A Just Russia party for the region,
Tamara Sharogazova, said A Just Russia would attract voters
in Novosibirsk by stressing patriotic and family values. A
Just Russia had just as legitimate a claim on the Putin
legacy, she asserted. United Russia had become a machine,
divorced from traditional values. She underlined that
Putin had kept some distance from United Russia. It was
the party of the favored and the connected. A Just Russia
would reach out to poorer voters, such as pensioners, and
make equality, social programs, and patriotism key issues.


7. (SBU) One of the main concerns for A Just Russia is
voter apathy. If A Just Russia can not show voters that
the party can make a difference, motivated voters from
United Russia will dominate. Sharogazova said that much of
the fate of A Just Russia in Novosibirsk would depend on
the party's national leadership, particularly that of party
leader Sergei Mironov. He will have to use his position as
Chairman of the Federation Council to the maximum to build
support and name recognition for the party -- or it will
fail. Sharogazova agreed with YR's Bespalikov that the
liberal parties had almost no support in Novosibirsk,

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despite the region's highly educated population. The
liberals lacked real leaders and had "done nothing concrete
for the people."

Foreign and Trade Relations
--------------


8. (SBU) The Foreign Ministry maintains offices in each of
Russia's seven Federal districts. For Siberia, the
district headquarters is Novosibirsk. We met with
Ambassador V. Samoyenko who explained that the MFA presence
began in 1996 as a response to regions that were conducting
(or were perceived to be conducting) their own foreign and
trade policies without coordinating with the center.
Samoyenko reports to MFA but answers locally to
Presidential Representative (Polpred) for Siberia, Anatoliy
Kvashnin who, in turn, reports to Kremlin Chief of Staff
Sobyanin.


9. (SBU) Trade promotion is a central facet of Samoyenko's
work. He meets with foreign investors and trade missions
and accompanies the regional governors on foreign travel.
Novosibirsk region's main selling points are its reputation
as a high tech center and its role as transportation hub
for Siberia - with air, rail, river and road linkages.
Samoyenko touted the numerous scientific institutes in
Novosibirsk, including at Novosibirsk University and at
"Akademgorodok," a special research town outside
Novosibirsk that was established in the Sputnik era. There
is also a strong machine manufacturing sector.


10. (SBU) Samoyenko said that because ethnic Germans had
once been numerous in Novosibirsk, German investors were
the number one foreign presence. American investment is
small, although Intel has a research center. Samoyenko
noted that Chinese were an increasing presence and engaged
currently in such projects as construction of a large
apartment complex. Ties with neighboring Kazakhstan are
excellent with many Kazakhs studying in Novosibirsk.

Business Perspectives
--------------


11. (SBU) We met with a group of small and medium business
leaders. They agreed that the region's 150,000 university
students and research institutes, and their focus on
applied sciences, was key to the region's future. However,
some faulted Governor Tolonskiy for unimaginative
leadership. Other governors, like that in neighboring
Krasnoyarsk, are doing a better job of attracting new
investment, especially in high tech.


12. (SBU) The business leaders said many businesspeople
join United Russia because it offers the chance for them to
"help themselves." Indeed, that is its fundamental
attraction. Many entrepreneurs profess to be apolitical
and do not see elections as making much of a difference.
Some of the businesspeople said the formation of A Just
Russia was positive and might provide needed competition to
United Russia. They noted that in the absence of a U.S.
consulate in Novosibirsk, everyone has to travel to Moscow
(or Yekaterinburg) for visas. Often time does not allow
for this, hampering development of business with the U.S.
The businesspeople said that corruption was a problem in
Novosibirsk but was not on the top of their list.

Public Affairs
--------------


13. (SBU) While in Novosibirsk, we addressed 150 faculty
and students at the Academy of Public Administration; gave
a talk at the American corner; had dinner with exchange
alumni; met with people from the NGO sector, and had a TV
and a newspaper interview following our meeting with
business leaders.

Comment
--------------


14. (SBU) Increased prosperity, while most evident in
Moscow, is also evident in cities like Novosibirsk,
Russia's third largest by population, which has a vibrant
commercial, entertainment and business climate. While
United Russia is dominant and no clear threat to it is on
the horizon, the complacency and over-confidence YR leaders
displayed was nonetheless striking.


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RUSSELL