THREE DEMONSTRATIONS AND A CONVENTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 012981

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/RUS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM PINR RS
SUBJECT: THREE DEMONSTRATIONS AND A CONVENTION


Classified By: Pol M/C Alice G. Wells: 1.4 (d)

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) Political groupings of all stripes made their presence
known in Moscow over the December 16-17 weekend:

-- "Other Russia" staged its "March of the Discontented."
About 2,500 participants from a hodgepodge of groups, united
only by their opposition to the current government and
rejection of the electoral process.

-- The pro-Kremlin youth group "Nashi" had about 25 thousand
young people from Moscow and surrounding areas don Santa
suits, cavort in the streets, and distribute gifts to the
city's remaining World War II veterans in commemoration of
the Battle for Moscow.

-- The western-leaning democratic political party Union of
Right Forces (SPS) staged its convention. Chairman Nikita
Belykh criticized "Other Russia" participants for rejecting
elections, and was in turn characterized by "Other Russia"
speakers at its rally as a Kremlin pocket party.

-- A small group, led by the Yabloko leadership, commemorated
the deaths of thirteen journalists killed since Putin became
President.


2. (C) In contrast to the opposition rallies, only Nashi was
allowed to march. However all the groups, regardless of their
orientation, met under the watchful eyes of very large
contingents of police, special forces, and FSB officers. All
events went off without major incident, although several
hundred would-be Other Russia participants allegedly were
detained on their way to their meeting. End summary.

-------------- --------------
Other Russia, Nashi, and Yabloko Take to the Streets
-------------- --------------


3. (C) About 2,500 participants in the "Other
Russia"-sponsored "March of the Discontented" convened on
Mayakovskiy Square December 16. They were surrounded by an
estimated eight thousand police, special forces troops, and
FSB officers, and watched over by a low-flying helicopter.
The speakers, among them Garry Kasparov (United Civic Front),
Eduard Limonov (National Bolshevik Front),Mikhail Kasyanov
(Peoples Democratic Union),Nikolay Ryzhkov (Republican Party
of Russia),Irina Khakamade (Popular Democratic Union),and
Evgeniya Albats (Ekho Moskvy journalist),stressed two key
themes:

-- although their politics may be very different, the
heterogeneous groups present are united in their rejection of
the government;

-- the current electoral system is stacked against parties
not sponsored by the Kremlin, and they do not plan to work
through it for change.


4. (C) Kasparov and others promised that the December 16
rally was the first of many to come. They seemed
undiscouraged by the size of the crowd, and sought to portray
the rally as the beginning of a groundswell against the
government. Center for Political Technologies Director Boris
Makarenko told us the turnout was larger than expected and
scored the demonstration as a "win" for the opposition.
Other Russia's implicit point of reference in staging the
rally was Ukraine's Orange Revolution, and the speakers
promised to remain at the Mayakovskiy Square after the next
rally if they were again refused permission to march. They
promised as well that there would be a change of power in
fifteen months.


5. (C) The December 17 Nashi event was not overtly political.
It seemed designed more to demonstrate the strength of the
Kremlin-friendly youth organization, and to strike the right,
nostalgic, chord with Russia's forty million pensioners. In
additional to the appeal to patriotism the WWII-related event
seemed designed to provide proof to the elderly that not all
of the nation's youth were in the throes of alcohol or drug
addiction. The large number of Santas and Snowwhites on the
street, intentionally or not, recalled the Soviet-era mass
gathering of youth in komsomol and young pioneer uniforms,
and provoked ridicule in some press commentaries.


6. (C) The event also showcased the organizers' deep pockets
and organizational abilities. Nashi leader Vasiliy Yakemenko

MOSCOW 00012981 002 OF 002


dismissed rumors that the event cost its sponsors USD 10
million, but the bus and train tickets, gifts for the
veterans who had been collected in 120 cultural centers, the
costumes (USD 3/outfit),and the labor of the organizers was
undoubtedly expensive. Other Russia, got the greenlight to
march, a fact that Yabloko Deputy Chairman Sergey Mitrokhin
directly attributed to Mayor Luzhkov, who has banned all
opposition demonstrations, but been more lenient with
pro-Kremlin groups. Although the media estimated that 70
thousand had attended the event, the Nashi press center
initially put the number at 25 thousand, then increased it,
reportedly at the insistence of some of its organizers.


7. (SBU) As was the case with Other Russia, city authorities
prohibited about fifty members of the Yabloko leadership and
their confederates from marching in memory of murdered
journalists on December 17. It did allow them to hold a
meeting, however. Once again, the police presence far
outstripped the size of the meeting, which at its largest
totaled no more than 150 participants, including interested
bystanders.

--------------
SPS Opts for the Ballot Box
--------------


8. (C) SPS's unexpectedly strong showing in the December 2
Perm region elections, where it won sixteen percent of the
vote, has sparked rumors here that the party is being
cultivated as the Kremlin's official right flank. Whatever
the case, SPS's December 16 convention was notable for the
party's seemingly decisive break with Yabloko, with whom it
has conducted on-again, off-again merger talks for years.
(Mitrokhin confirmed to us that Yabloko would stand alone and
repeated for us Yabloko's "poison pill" condition that SPS
repudiate its senior leadership (Chubais, Gaidar) and ditch
its economic policies.) Belykh's party also emphatically
rejected street politics as a path to power. The SPS
Chairman promised the media that his party was preparing only
for the elections, while Kasparov, Kasyanov, Limonov, and
company were preparing for "the revolution." The national
network "Rossiya," in its December 17 news summary, was quick
to pick up that theme, and to show Belykh at his best,
modestly rejecting SPS Deputy Chairman Leonid Gozman's
suggestion that the party Chairman alone deserved credit for
the Perm election outcome. Nevertheless, Belykh was selected
to be at the top of the SPS list in each of the fourteen
regions where elections will be held in March.

--------------
GOR Overreaction
--------------


9. (C) The one constant in the three street meetings was the
size of the police presence, which suggested a degree of
unease about gatherings of any size and inclination. In a
recent conversation, Movement Against Illegal Immigration
President Aleksandr Belov described himself as similarly
astonished at the number of uniformed law enforcement
officers mustered for the November 4 Russian march. Belov,
who claimed to have seen GOR reports on the threat allegedly
posed by the march, believed that the authorities, after
Ukraine's Orange Revolution and the unexpectedly strong
reaction in January to the monetization of benefits, had
decided to err on the side of caution. He thought their
fears unfounded, but predicted that the nervousness would
only increase in 2007.
RUSSELL