GEORGIA UPDATE: OCTOBER 18

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 011690

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/18/2016
TAGS: PREL MARR PREF GG RS
SUBJECT: GEORGIA UPDATE: OCTOBER 18

REF: MOSCOW 11629 AND PREV.

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Daniel A. Russell. Reason 1.4 (
b, d)

Summary
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1. (C) Deportation orders against Georgian continue; the
Georgian Embassy claims about 1000 Georgians have been told
to leave without being detained. Georgians are expected to
take Russian citizenship in greater numbers as a protective
move. Georgian restaurants are reopening. The official mood
remains dour. Russian officials still say the time is not
yet ripe for renewed dialogue with Georgia; Georgians expect
continued confrontation. End Summary.

Deportations and Georgian Nationals
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2. (C) The body of the Georgian who died at Domodedovo
Airport October 17 while awaiting deportation will be flown
to Tbilisi October 19 at Georgian government expense,
Georgian Ambassador Chubinishvili told us. After the October
17 flight, some 7-8 Georgian nationals remain detained in St.
Petersburg. In addition to those detained in Moscow
(reftel),reports are arriving of detentions in Sochi,
Kaliningrad and elsewhere, but the Georgian Embassy cannot
get specific numbers until it sends its consular officers to
the sites. Chubinishvili claimed that 1000 Georgians have
received orders to leave the country, though they have not
been detained and are supposed to depart by themselves.


3. (C) Chubinishvili said that of the 250,000 Georgian
nationals in Russia, many have dual nationality (formally
illegal, but the Georgians turn a blind eye). The Georgian
Embassy therefore has no idea of the numbers of vulnerable.
Chubinishvili cited cases of Georgian nationals with
professional positions and high social standing who have been
told by friendly officials that their residence/work permits
could not be extended when they expire, but if they choose to
seek Russian citizenship their applications will be
facilitated. One such person was the grand-daughter of
former President Shevardnadze, who refused to consider
changing nationality.

Reopenings
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4. (C) Chubinishvili met us at the re-opened Tiflis
restaurant (Moscow's best Georgian food),and the lights are
back on at Pirosmani (which once hosted President Clinton).
Both had closed voluntarily for a week, though inspectors had
combed through Tiflis looking for violations. The Kristal
Casino has reopened. Its owner is not Georgian, but an
Armenian with Russian citizenship who had the misfortune of
being born in Tbilisi. This allowed corrupt officials to
close it down -- and demand large bribes to let it reopen.

No Mood for Talk
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5. (C) Russian MFA South Ossetia negotiator Yuriy Popov told
us Moscow is still not in the mood for dialogue with Georgia
at any level. "The dust will have to settle," he said,
adding that Georgia will have to make the first approach to
Russia. He bemoaned the stalemate at the Joint Control
Commission on South Ossetia, and asked the U.S. to persuade
Georgia to participate in the current format, and drop
demands that it change, as a goodwill gesture to Russia. He
had no suggestions on next steps or how to re-package the
negotiations to allow all to save face and get back to work.

Prospects for Conflict
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6. (C) Popov said Russian officials believe (from
intelligence sources, he intimated) that Georgia will soon
show a display of "muscle" in South Ossetia to disrupt the
referendum and elections planned for the separatist entity.
He dismissed Georgian fears that Russia was urging the Abkhaz
and Ossetians to confront Georgia militarily. Chubinishvili
reiterated those fears, saying the likelihood of
confrontation in Kodori is high. Russia will continue to
press for the withdrawal of all Georgian arms from Kodori and
then, "as they did in Sukhumi," occupy the region.
BURNS