RODINA: SATISFIED BUT SUING

UNCLAS MOSCOW 011631

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/RUS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM SOCI RS
SUBJECT: RODINA: SATISFIED BUT SUING

REF: A. MOSCOW 11413

B. MOSCOW 10861

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Summary
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1. (SBU) Rodina had a poor showing in the October 8 regional
elections; it crossed the 7 percent threshold for
representation in only one region: Astrakhan. Nevertheless,
Deputy Chair of Rodina's Executive Committee Maksim Puchkov
in an October 12 conversation found cause for optimism in the
votes won by the three parties of the "relevant left"
(Rodina, the Russian Party of Life, and the Russian Party of
Pensioners). Puchkov told the Embassy that Rodina planned to
bring suits alleging impropriety at the ballot box in three
regions: Astrakhan, Tuva, and Sverdlovsk. Rodina would lead
the planned three-party coalition because it was deserving as
"the only party with an ideology," not because its Duma seats
provided a platform for legislative initiatives as Sergey
Mironov, head of the would-be coalition partner Russian Party
of Life, had asserted. End summary.

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October 8 Election Results
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2. (U) In October 8 regional elections, Rodina won 16.5
percent of the vote in Astrakhan and crossed the 7 percent
threshold for regional legislative representation. It almost
qualified in Chuvashiya as well, where it won 6.5 percent of
the vote. In five other regions (the Jewish Autonomous
Republic, Novgorod, Primorye, Sverdlovsk, and Tuva),Rodina
reaped between 2.3 percent to 4.5 percent of the ballots. In
Karelia and Lipetsk, it was not included on the ballot.


3. (U) Those results notwithstanding, Deputy Chair of
Rodina's Executive Committee Maksim Puchkov told us on
October 12 that he was pleased and that the returns boded
well for the March 2007 regional elections. Puchkov
contended that the three parties of the incipient coalition
had won 30 percent in the regions. (Embassy's calculations
do not match this assessment on a region-by-region basis, and
Yuriy Korguniuk of Indem and other analysts speculate that
the sum of the three will be even less than that of its
parts.)

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Bringing Lawsuits
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4. (U) Puchkov claimed there had been irregularities
throughout the regions. Not only had voters been told how to
vote, but in Astrakhan votes that had originally been
"against all" were tallied as ballots for United Russia.
Rodina will be bringing suit against the regional election
commission in Astrakhan, said Puchkov. It would also be
going to court in Tuva and in Sverdlovsk, where it alleged
there had been improper use of administrative resources.
Suits were contemplated in other regions, as well.


5. (U) Puchkov agreed that the courts could take as long as
six months to reach a verdict in the cases, but he seemed
unconcerned about the timeline, and thought it unlikely that
the verdicts, even if reached before the March 2007 regional
elections, would have an impact.

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Future of Rodina
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6. (U) Both Puchkov and Pavel Shashkin, of Rodina's
international division, were optimistic about Rodina's
future. Their party's strength was its ideology, which would
not change with the whims of the administration, as was the
case with the Kremlin-sponsored United Russia. They
described Rodina's platform as "attractive" and based on
conservative values associated with the Orthodox Church and a
desire to re-generate Russia's domestic industries. (Moscow
observers concluded (ref a) that the more "ideological"
parties did not fare well in the October 8 elections.)


7. (U) Puchkov disagreed with Russian Party of Life Chairman
Mironov's assertion that Rodina would form the "basis" of the
new coalition party only because it had State Duma seats.
(Mironov said that he hoped to use Rodina's Duma faction to
introduce new legislation. Duma representation also gives
the new, coalition party access to government subsidies.)

8. (U) In addition to possible disagreements with its future
coalition partners in Moscow, arguments over who will head
the coalition in the regions are increasingly surfacing in
the press. Additionally, there are press rumors that some
within Rodina will resist the planned, three-party merger.


9. (U) Despite these fault lines and United Russia's
continuing firm grip on power, Puchkov was confident that the
new coalition would do well in the March regional elections.
(The March 11 elections will be held in 17 regions and are
the last major elections before the State Duma contest.)

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Comment
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10. (SBU) Rodina representatives' seeming lack of concern
about the October 8 election results and their party's role
in the three-party coalition to be formalized October 28 may
be the belief that Rodina will do better in the March
regional contests due to the administrative resources it will
receive as one of the Kremlin's favored two parties. Ex-party
chief Dmitriy Rogozin (ref b) retains a high profile,
including on television and in the Duma, where he has used
the anti-Georgian campaign to push for his brand of
"enlightened nationalism."
BURNS