Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MOSCOW11279
2006-10-06 15:05:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Moscow
Cable title:  

THE OCTOBER 8 REGIONAL ELECTIONS AS A PROVING

Tags:  PGOV KDEM PHUM PREL SOCI RS 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO2521
OO RUEHDBU
DE RUEHMO #1279/01 2791505
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 061505Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3585
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 011279 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/RUS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM PREL SOCI RS
SUBJECT: THE OCTOBER 8 REGIONAL ELECTIONS AS A PROVING
GROUND FOR 2007

REF: A. VLADIVOSTOK 130

B. YEKATERINBURG 359

C. YEKATERINBURG 360

D. MOSCOW 11137

E. MOSCOW 11172

Classified By: DCM Daniel A. Russell. Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d).

-------
Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 011279

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/RUS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM PREL SOCI RS
SUBJECT: THE OCTOBER 8 REGIONAL ELECTIONS AS A PROVING
GROUND FOR 2007

REF: A. VLADIVOSTOK 130

B. YEKATERINBURG 359

C. YEKATERINBURG 360

D. MOSCOW 11137

E. MOSCOW 11172

Classified By: DCM Daniel A. Russell. Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d).

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) The October 8 elections are being viewed by
commentators here as a rehearsal for the 2007 State Duma
elections (which some see as a rehearsal for the 2008
presidential contest). Viewed from that vantage point, the
contests, in nine regions and republics of Russia, should
offer the Kremlin an opportunity to assess the future of a
managed, two-party system; gauge the mood of the electorate;
and determine what works, what does not, in producing the
desired electoral outcome. This election in some of the
regions will serve as the debut for the Russian Party of Life
(RPL),the second Kremlin-fostered party, after United
Russia, to throw its hat into the ring. How RPL fares on
October 8 will likely determine what part it will play in the
Presidential Administration's plans for the 2007 contest.
End summary.

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A New Kremlin Party Appears
--------------


2. (C) On October 8, as many as 14 million voters in nine
regions will go to the polls in what many commentators here
view as a dress rehearsal for the 2007 State Duma elections.
Differentiating these elections from contests that took place
in March this year is the presence in some of the regions of
two "Kremlin" parties: United Russia (YR) and the Russian
Party of Life (RPL). The appearance of RPL --which is in the
middle of a merger with the Russian Party of Pensioners (RPP)
and Rodina-- has reportedly caused confusion, and engendered
resistance in some of the regions. Local elites, who had
become accustomed to supporting one, state-sponsored party,
this time around have been confronted with the unaccustomed
task of backing two contenders, and attempting to divine
which of them, based on their reading of the Kremlin tea

leaves, is the more deserving.

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Nine Regions, Different Rules
--------------


3. (C) Elections will take place October 8 in the Republics
of Karelia, Tuva, and Chuvashiya; the regions of Primorye,
Astrakhan, Lipetsk, Novgorod, Sverdlovsk; and the Jewish
Autonomous Region. Different laws regulate the conduct of
the elections in each place. The minimal voting age is
either 20 or 21 years, the minimal voter turnout required
ranges from 20 to 33 percent, and voters in four of the
regions (Karelia, Tuva, Primorye, the Jewish Autonomous
Region) will retain the option of voting against all of the
candidates or parties running. The threshold which any party
must cross to representation in its legislature is 7 percent
in every region.

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Election as Litmus Test
--------------


4. (C) In addition to the Kremlin's experiment with managed,
two-party democracy, this election will likely be used by
those with their eye on 2007 to gauge:

-- the effect of an infusion of administrative resources on
election results;
-- the mood of the electorate, to the extent that is possible
when the election playing field is less than level;
-- the ability of the regions to produce the desired results
at the polls;
-- which mechanisms work, which do not, with an increasingly
sophisticated, and perhaps jaded, voter.

--------------
Very Managed Democracy
--------------


5. (C) The elections this Sunday will occur against the
background of the same factors that have made previous
contests less than democratic:

MOSCOW 00011279 002 OF 003



-- the media deck is stacked in favor of the sponsored
parties: YR and in some cases RPL;
-- compliant electoral commissions and courts have in some
cases prevented the participation of parties, like Yabloko in
Karelia, and many individual candidates. In some cases,
candidates have been intimidated and have "voluntarily"
withdrawn;
-- in rural areas and areas with a large employer, voters may
be told whom to vote for;
-- administrative resources have flowed to the Kremlin's
favorite parties and candidates.


6. (C) Still, the elections results will very generally
reflect the will of the voters.

--------------
Rocky Start for Party of Life
--------------


7. (C) Observers here trace the creation of a second,
centrally-sponsored party broadly to:

-- rivalries within the Kremlin;
-- an attempt to channel the electorate's dissatisfaction
with the status quo, and hence with YR, into a safe
alternative party;
-- an effort by President Putin to divide and conquer, or at
least control, Kremlin factions.


7. (C) The Kremlin's enthusiasm for managed democracy has not
been universally embraced in the regions. In Lipetsk (ref
e),YR and RPL appear to be competing for votes, although
party representatives allege that their parties complement
one another. Sverdlovsk region (refs b and c) and Moscow
appear to be at loggerheads over the RPL, whose ticket is led
by Yevgeniy Roizman, a maverick who is anathema to the city
and regional administrations. In Chuvashiya (ref d),Moscow
prevailed to have one party, Rodina, registered as the
standard bearer for the RPL-RPP-Rodina alliance, but in doing
so engendered much resentment among Cheboksary RPL members.
In Primorye (ref a),the three "allied" parties --Rodina,
RPL, RPP-- are all separately on the ballot and the
controversial mayor of Vladivostok has formed his own bloc to
contest the elections.


8. (C) In addition to local resentment of Moscow's decision
to establish a second party over the heads of the regions,
there is undoubtedly unhappiness with the complexities
created by another official contender on the ballot. It is
easier to use administrative resources and control of the
media to advance the fortunes of one party than two, and the
emergence of the RPL no doubt creates angst among local
leaders uncertain of what it signifies about the power
balance in the Kremlin and what that ultimately means for
future center - region relationships.


9. (C) Further complicating the task of producing the "right"
election results is YR's diminishing popularity in some
regions (refs a,b,c). (Primorye has apparently been tasked
to win 45 percent of the vote, while Sverdlovsk region and
Chuvashiya are each on the hook for 50 percent.)

--------------
The Voters
--------------


10. (C) Observers throughout the regions generally expect
voter turnout this time around to drop slightly, with the
electorate arranged in four broad categories:

-- "sophisticated" voters who, according to some commentators
are tired of being manipulated and will not vote;
-- employees of Russia's vast public sector, who will
generally vote for one of the two Kremlin-sponsored parties;
-- pensioners, some of whom will remain loyal to the
Communist Party. The remainder will vote for the party of
Putin, YR;
-- the heterogeneous "others," generally urban voters whose
choices on October 8 will span the spectrum.

--------------
Comment
--------------


11. (C) Most Moscow commentators have focused on what the
formation of a second government party says about Kremlin
infighting and the ability of Moscow to write a script that
will be acted convincingly in the regions. If that script

MOSCOW 00011279 003 OF 003


proves convincing to the voters and the local elites, it will
likely be used as the rough draft for the 2007 contest.
BURNS