RUSSIAN REACTS TO ARRESTS OF SOLDIERS IN GEORGIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 011029

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2016
TAGS: PREL MARR NATO GG RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIAN REACTS TO ARRESTS OF SOLDIERS IN GEORGIA

REF: MOSCOW 10986

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Daniel A. Russell. Reasons: 1.
4(B/D).


1. (C) Summary: The Ambassador strongly encouraged
restraint in a September 29 telephone conversation with
Deputy Foreign Minister Karasin. Karasin responded that he
appreciated U.S. responsiveness and welcomed Tbilisi's
decision to permit joint patrolling of the Kodori Gorge. The
MFA confirmed that it has begun taking diplomatic and
political steps to obtain the release of the Russian officers
arrested in Georgia. The MFA told us September 29 that the
Russian Ambassador to Georgia had been recalled, the Embassy
in Tbilisi was being drawn down, diplomatic and military
employees in Georgia were being evacuated and visa issuance
to Georgians was suspended. Moscow will also increase the
tempo of its diplomatic efforts in capitals and possibly in
New York. Public opinion remains angry over the Georgian
move, but most public figures are calling for a political
rather than a military resolution. Russian analysts we spoke
to were unanimous in viewing the arrests as an escalatory
step by Saakashvili that would likely backfire. End Summary.

.
DFM KARASIN WELCOMES U.S. EFFORTS
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2. (C) The Ambassador, participating in an economic
conference in Sochi, telephoned DFM Karasin September 29 to
reiterate U.S. calls for restraint, underscore that the U.S.
had taken serious note of the GOR non-paper, and detail U.S.
efforts to de-escalate the situation in Tbilisi. Karasin
appreciated the U.S. follow-up on the incident and the
opportunity in Washington for an exchange between Russian
Ambassador Ushakov and U/S Burns. He welcomed Tbilisi's
decision to allow joint CIS-UNOMIG patrolling of the Kodori
Gorge as a means to reduce tensions.
.
MFA: DIPLOMATIC STEPS . . . FOR NOW
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3. (C) MFA Fourth CIS (Caucasus) Deputy Director Dmitriy
Tarabrin reviewed the diplomatic steps that Russia had or was
about to take today in response to the arrests. They are:

-- recall of Russian Ambassador to Georgia Kovalenko for
consultations in Moscow.
-- drawdown of staff and dependents from the Russian Embassy
in Tbilisi and Russian military facilities in Tbilisi, Batumi
and Akhalkalaki.
-- dispatch of two EMERCOM planes on Friday to Tbilisi to
evacuate employees and dependents. Ambassador Kovalenko is
likely to join the first group of evacuees.


4. (C) In addition to these steps, the MFA has issued a
travel warning to Russian citizens recommending against
travel to Georgia because of the threat of violence. Visa
issuance to Georgians (whether in Tbilisi or elsewhere) has
been suspended with exceptions to be made only in emergency
cases. Russia will be making demarches in major capitals to
argue that the officers must be freed and allowed to return
to Russia. He said Russia would weigh bringing the issue of
the detentions to the notice of the UN Security Council.


5. (C) Tarabrin said that these measures would be
sufficient for now, but Moscow was actively considering other
diplomatic, political and financial measures that might be
taken against the Georgians. He emphasized several times
that Russia was not contemplating military measures. He
would not be drawn out on when such further measures might be
put in place, but said that if the situation was not resolved
in the next few days, Russia would weigh taking additional
steps. He pointed to the large sum of funds transferred
annually to Tbilisi in the form of remittances (he put the
unofficial figure at USD 2 billion) but shared no details on
what practical steps Russia could take to stop such transfers.
.
PUBLIC STATEMENTS MODERATING?
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6. (C) Compared to statements on September 28, when news
broke of the arrests, public officials were more restrained.
Russian television channels ran (edited) clips of the
Georgian tapes supposedly showing acts of espionage, but
newscasters were dismissive about what the tapes proved.
While the arrests continue to draw across-the-board
condemnation, few public figures were recommending a military
response. The Public Chamber called for the release of the
officers, pointing to the damage it was doing to the
bilateral relationship, while Duma Foreign Affairs Committee
Chairman Konstantin Kosachev ruled out the use of force to

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resolve the situation and noted that the U.S. was playing a
role in calming tensions. Carnegie Center analyst Aleksey
Malashenko dismissed the possibility of war, but thought the
relationship would remain "in crisis." A staffer on the Duma
Defense Committee told us that he did not expect any serious
consequences to the arrests, which would likely be resolved
through diplomatic means. Such views were not universal --
for example, Duma CIS Affairs Committee Chairman Andrey
Kokoshin called Georgia a "failing state" and warned that
Russia would "stop at nothing" if its security interests were
threatened.
.
THINK TANKERS SEE GEORGIAN MISCALCULATION
--------------


7. (C) Embassy contacts at political-military think tanks
were unanimous in blaming Saakashvilli for the incident,
seeing his goal as an escalation of Tbilisi's confrontation
with Moscow that would draw in the U.S. and other Western
partners. Boris Makarenko of the Center for Political
Studies said Saakashvilli felt emboldened by Georgia,s new
ID status with NATO. Alexander Belkin, of the Council of
Foreign and Defense Policy, told us Saakashvilli was raising
the stakes and that Georgia hoped Russia would make a mistake
and overreact. Pointing out that "real" espionage incidents
were resolved quietly, Ivan Safranchuk of the World Security
Institute said that the arrest might be a good tactical move
to escalate the conflict, but Saakashvilli was engaged in a
high stakes gamble.
.
WESTERN PARTNERS
--------------


8. (C) Among our Quad partners, only the Germans approached
the MFA on this issue and received much the same readout as
we did. Because of what they characterized as the positive
tone of discussions in Berlin during the September 28 Friends
of Georgia meeting, the Germans have concluded that no
demarche is needed and that the Russians were responding
along political and diplomatic lines. The UK Embassy is
advocating a coordinated response both in Moscow and in
Tbilisi to encourage restraint and the expulsion of the
detained Russians. The British were more alarmist about the
prospect for unanticipated escalation into a military
confrontation.
.
NEXT STEPS
--------------


9. (C) Russia has now taken measured steps to respond to
the arrests and has -- for the most part -- dialed down the
rhetoric. However, if this matter begins to drag into next
week, there is an increasing chance that harsher measures
will be implemented because of growing political pressure to
be seen as doing something. Russia's preexisting sanctions
against Georgia (embargoes on trade and transit restrictions)
cut down on the options available to Moscow. A decision to
expel the officers quickly in order to resolve this matter
would remove Russia's temptation to pursue more heavy-handed
measures.
BURNS