Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MOSCOW10486
2006-09-19 15:39:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Moscow
Cable title:  

REFERENDUM RESULTS: PRICEY WRINKLE TO THE FIVE

Tags:  PREL OSCE PBTS MD RS 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO7684
OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHLA RUEHMRE RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHMO #0486 2621539
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 191539Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2577
INFO RUCNOSC/OSCE POST COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 010486 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2016
TAGS: PREL OSCE PBTS MD RS
SUBJECT: REFERENDUM RESULTS: PRICEY WRINKLE TO THE FIVE
PLUS TWO

REF: A. CHISNAU 1047

B. MOSCOW 7769

C. MOSCOW 10439

Classified By: Minister-Counselor for Political Affairs Alice G. Wells.
Reasons: 1.4 (B/D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 010486

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2016
TAGS: PREL OSCE PBTS MD RS
SUBJECT: REFERENDUM RESULTS: PRICEY WRINKLE TO THE FIVE
PLUS TWO

REF: A. CHISNAU 1047

B. MOSCOW 7769

C. MOSCOW 10439

Classified By: Minister-Counselor for Political Affairs Alice G. Wells.
Reasons: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Foreign Minister Lavrov's short statement
encapsulates GOR reaction to the referendum: the results were
no surprise and the partners should return to the talks. MFA
Transnistrian negotiator Valeriy Nesterushkin contended that
the Transnistrians will most likely demand removal of the
post-March 6 customs regime before joining the Five Plus Two.
According to Nesterushkin, a stream of Transnistrian
officials will visit Moscow in the near future to discuss
next steps.

Resumption of the Five Plus Two not that simple
-------------- --


2. (C) While Nesterushkin supported an eventual resumption
of talks, he rejected suggestions that the Five Plus Two
resume meeting in Chisnau as early as October 18. The
situation is much more complicated now that Transnistrians
are "fortified" by the referendum. Transnistrians will most
likely demand removal of the export regime before they join
the talks. Nesterushkin preferred the EU's proposal--two
separate Five Plus One meetings, where Moldova and
Transnistria meet separately with the outside partners,
instead of a hasty resumption of the Five Plus Two.
Nesterushkin warned that the Five Plus Two is not meant to be
a show and a failure -- Transnistria's "no show" -- will
jeopardize the existing frame of negotiation. Regarding the
export regime, Nesterushkin emphasized the 1997 Moscow
document, which granted a special status to Transnistria with
its own external market. He blamed his "partners" in
negotiation for having "dismantled" these previously agreed
principles.

Bandit or not, this is Reality
--------------


3. (C) Nesterushkin expected to consult with Transnistrian
officials, including "Foreign Minister" Valeriy Litskai, who
plan to visit Moscow soon. Whether some people call Smirnov a
bandit, Transnistria a black hole of Europe was irrelevant.
Transnistria has expressed itself. We are simply going to
have to deal with it. He added, "After all, the U.S. dealt
with Noriega although it was clear to everyone else that he
was a bandit."

What Next?
--------------


4. (C) Once again, Nesterushkin did not provide any clarity
on how Russia will proceed vis-a-vis Transnistria in the long
run. He said that all parties should come to the table with
no emotion or wishful thinking. If the OSCE proposal works,
he would be happy but he cannot be so optimistic.
Nesterushkin did not directly comment on Transnistrian plans
for integration with Russia, but jokingly asked whether the
U.S. would want the Marshall Islands to become part of the
U.S.


5. (C) Comment: Nesterushkin's comments do not fully track
with Russian Security Council Secretary Igor Ivanov's point
to the Ambassador that the partners need to sit down and talk
(Ref C).

BURNS